Rankings Commodities & uranium Lynas Rare Earths
Lynas Rare Earths
67
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−11
- Margin and ROIC−4
- FCF yield−4
Strengths
- Price floor+3
- Net cash+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 67, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 11.97 AUD
- Median analyst target
- 17.50 AUD
- Upside to median
- +46.2%
- Analysts
- 13
- Target range
- 9.50 – 21.00 AUD
- 52-week change
- −22%
- P/E (trailing)
- 54.3
- Forward P/E
- 25.5
- PEG
- 0.65
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−11 of −30
- −4Margin and ROICOperating margin 24.5% in FY26 after 1.8% in FY25 and 13.3% in FY24, but far below 57% in FY22. ROIC 7.9% – below a WACC of about 8% and vs 72.6% in FY22. Returns swing entirely with the NdPr price.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue rose 76% to A$977.9m, but NdPr production only 11% to 7,260 t; the rest is price (average selling price A$80.7/kg vs 50.6). Production is well below the 10,500 t NdPr nameplate.
- −2Cost positionSulphuric acid costs quadrupled, administration costs rose A$34m, and Kalgoorlie produced A$23m of under-absorbed start-up costs. Lynas is a price taker against state-backed Chinese producers with lower costs.
- −2Capital allocationThe budget for the heavy rare earths (HRE) plant in Malaysia rose from A$180m to 294m (+63%) because of extra equipment, pricier sourcing outside China and geopolitical inflation; about A$1.5bn invested in expansions in total.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−15 of −35
- −11Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 24.5 vs its own forward history of 12.9–40.3 (FY22–26; 12.9 and 16.4 in FY22–23, when the NdPr price last peaked). Trailing P/E 62 vs 14.6–82; P/S 14.2 vs 8.6–18.6; EV/EBITDA 34 on the company's own EBITDA (44.6 on S&P's figures) vs 13.9–19.6 in FY22–23. A commodity producer near a price peak priced as a growth stock; FY27 consensus (EPS A$0.56) assumes a sustained high NdPr price.
- −4FCF yieldFCF A$140.5m in FY26 (FCF yield 1.0%, P/FCF 99). Even analysts' FY27 FCF of A$449m is only 3.2% of the A$13.9bn market value.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−10 of −35
- −3Regulation (Malaysia)The operating licence in Malaysia has been renewed to March 2036, but on condition that the plant stops producing radioactive waste around 2031. If the condition is not met, the whole separation operation in Gebeng is at risk.
- −2Management changeLong-serving CEO Amanda Lacaze retired on 30/6/2026; COO Pol Le Roux is only acting CEO, and the search for a permanent CEO is under way in the middle of starting up Kalgoorlie, the HRE plant and the Mt Weld expansion.
- −2DilutionThe share count rose 7.25% in a year after an A$932.6m share issue in FY26; stock-based pay doubled to A$14.3m.
- −3China and the NdPr priceNdPr oxide costs ¥738,000/t (24/9), 13% below the February peak; China's expanded export controls from October 2025 are only suspended until 10/11/2026. China can both lift and crush the price, which Lynas' earnings follow directly.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +2Net cashNet cash A$870.8m (cash 1.21bn vs debt 338m); current ratio 9.4 and Altman Z 12.4.
- +3Price floorA new 12-year supply and offtake agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE) with a floor of US$110/kg NdPr puts a floor under a large part of sales.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Fiscal year ends 30 June (FY26 = July 2025–June 2026); half-year reports only. S&P's EBITDA (A$278.6m) is lower than the company's own (A$386.0m); EV/EBITDA has been assessed on both. Earnings follow the NdPr price, which is set in China. Not traded on Nordnet DK (ASX only); the OTC lines LYSDY (ADR) and LYSCF are not in Nordnet's search API. The Seadrift project in Texas and the status of US government contracts have not been examined.
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