Rankings Commodities & uranium Kazatomprom
Kazatomprom
78
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−9
- State control and jurisdiction−5
- Geopolitics and customers−4
Strengths
- Cost position+3
- Net cash+2
- Governance+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 78, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 28,103 KZT
- Median analyst target
- 38,035 KZT
- Upside to median
- +35.3%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 36,021 – 45,120 KZT
- 52-week change
- −8%
- P/E (trailing)
- 13.9
- Forward P/E
- 10.7
- PEG
- 0.73
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−8 of −30
- −3Earnings developmentEPS fell 35% in 2025 and 11% TTM, and analysts expect -10% in 2026, even though the spot price rose 24% in H1. The realized price (USD 67.88/lb) lags spot (USD 85.98/lb) because part of the long-term contracts have fixed price components and price ceilings. Attributable EBITDA fell 12% in H1.
- −3Costs and marginAttributable C1 cost rose 37% to USD 24.48/lb and AISC 25% to USD 38.45/lb in H1, partly because the mineral extraction tax (MET) rose from 9% to 12.4%. Full-year guidance for C1 (25.50–27.00) and AISC (USD 39.00–40.50/lb) has been raised, and capex guidance has been lifted to KZT 435–450bn.
- −2FCF and capital allocationFCF fell to KZT 289bn TTM from 581bn in 2025 (FCF margin 15.5% vs 32%), while capex has risen from 108bn (2023) to KZT 227bn. The dividend of KZT 328bn TTM is larger than FCF. ROIC is still high (22%), so the deduction applies only to the direction.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−9 of −35
- −9Multiples vs own history and peersTrailing P/E 14.6 vs 6.0–12.8 (2022–25); forward P/E 11.3 vs 7.2–10.7 (2022–25); P/FCF 26.5 vs 12.5–15.9; P/B 2.49 vs 1.75–2.38. Only EV/EBITDA (7.3 vs 6.3–8.7) sits mid-range. Above own history on most multiples, but far cheaper than Cameco (EV/EBITDA 68, P/E 153) – a discount that reflects jurisdiction and state ownership.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−14 of −35
- −5State control and jurisdictionThe state fund Samruk-Kazyna owns 75%, and production is steered by the state's priorities: nominal 2026 production has been cut from 32,777 to 29,697 tU (100% basis) after 'value over volume'. The state can change taxes, subsoil licences and JV terms, and minority shareholders have limited influence.
- −3Sulphuric acid and production riskCommissioning of the sulphuric acid plant TQZ is delayed 6–12 months to between Q3 2027 and Q1 2028. 2026 production (27,500–29,000 tU) depends on the acid supply, and 2027 guidance is outstanding.
- −4Geopolitics and customersGrowing dependence on Chinese state buyers: a long contract with CNNC (November 2025) and a spot contract with SNURDC approved in October 2026, both with secret prices and volumes. Rosatom's Uranium One has sold its JV stakes (Zarechnoye, Khorasan-U, Kyzylkum) to Chinese state companies, and exports go via China and Russia, creating sanctions and transit risk.
- −2Currency and inventoryThe stronger tenge has forced a downgrade of revenue guidance to KZT 2,100–2,200bn, and currency losses pulled net income down 9% in H1. The company's own sales fell 13%, while inventory rose 23% to 8,245 tU.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +3Cost positionAISC of USD 39–40.5/lb vs a spot price of 89.63 and a long-term price of USD 96.50/lb (30/9-2026). The world's lowest cost curve and about 20% of the world's primary uranium supply; management says every pound produced has a buyer.
- +2
- +1GovernanceAt the general meeting in October 2026 shareholders voted no to a supply contract with Rosatom's Uranium One and yes to the Chinese contract. Contracts with state-owned partners are thus not approved automatically.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The world's largest uranium producer (approx. 20% of global primary supply). Listed as GDR in London (LSE: KAP, USD, 1 GDR = 1 share), on AIX and on KASE (KZAP). Nordnet's search API gave no hits for 'Kazatomprom', 'KAP' or 'National Atomic' (11/10-2026), so the share is set to 'Not on Nordnet'. Stockanalysis' London page (quote/lon/KAP) only has statistics and no financials or forecast page, so the path is the main listing quote/kase/KZAP in KZT. Net income is after minority interests in the JVs (combined EBITDA margin 50%, net margin 28%). The share of the contract book with fixed prices and price caps is not quantified. The source for the TQZ delay (Kalkine) blocks bots, but is a public page. Insider trades have not been examined (state-owned). Only 3 analysts on the KASE listing.
Also in Commodities & uranium
The highest scores in the same industry.
