Rankings Commodities & uranium Jaguar Mining
Jaguar Mining
72
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Tailings and environment (Satinoco)−8
- Margin and cost level−4
- Capital allocation−4
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Reserve growth+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 72, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 5.25 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 15.55 CAD
- Upside to median
- +196.2%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 15.45 – 15.65 CAD
- 52-week change
- −9%
- P/E (trailing)
- 26.5
- Forward P/E
- 2.6
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−13 of −30
- −4Margin and cost levelEBITDA margin 56% and operating margin 42% TTM thanks to a gold price of about USD 4,400, but AISC was USD 2,840/oz in Q2 2026 (+57% versus USD 1,814 a year earlier), and the net margin is only 7.5% after Satinoco costs. The company is a high-cost producer.
- −3Quality of growthProduction growth of 19% in Q2 is a recovery after the shutdown of Turmalina, not new growth. H1 2026 produced 22,687 oz, and all of 2026 (50,000-60,000 oz) is below the level before the incident (16,912 oz in Q3 2024 alone).
- −4Capital allocationFCF was negative (−USD 3.4m TTM) despite a record gold price, because capex rose to CAD 57m; no dividend or buyback, and the share count rose 6.5% in a year.
- −2Moat and asset qualityTwo small underground mines with grades of about 3 g/t and recovery of 84-89%. Reserves of 858,000 oz (about 14-17 years of production at the current rate) provide mine life, but no scale advantage.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs peersEV/EBITDA 3.7 and forward P/E 3.4 are low in absolute terms, but Serabi Gold (also Brazil) trades at EV/EBITDA 2.0 and forward P/E 2.7. Trailing P/E 35 is distorted by Satinoco costs. P/B 1.6. Analysts' price targets are not used here.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−17 of −35
- −8Tailings and environment (Satinoco)The landslide at the Satinoco tailings facility in December 2024 damaged seven houses, about 85 families were rehoused, and Turmalina was closed for 15 months. The fine was settled at about BRL 60m (from an initial estimate of BRL 320m), Satinoco cost USD 51.2m in 2025, and the prosecutor's office in Minas Gerais has brought a case.
- −2Legal provisionsProvisions for legal and other matters of 30.1m USD as of 30 Jun 2026 (36.1m at year-end), typical for Brazilian tax and labour cases.
- −3Guidance and cost riskH1 delivered 22,687 oz, so H2 must deliver 27,000–37,000 oz to hit guidance; Turmalina is still ramping up (paste-fill plant), and cash cost rose to 1,834 USD/oz.
- −2ConcentrationAll production comes from two mines in the same state; a new geotechnical or regulatory stoppage hits most of the earnings. Onças de Pitangui is still awaiting its installation licence.
- −2Control and liquidityInsiders/strategic owners hold 48.8%, free float is 43.7m shares, and daily turnover is only approx. 200,000 shares (approx. 1.4m CAD).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Net cashCash 112m CAD and debt 12.8m (net cash approx. 99m CAD or 1.16 CAD per share) as of 30 Jun 2026.
- +2Reserve growthProven and probable reserves rose 12% to 858,000 oz at 31/12-2025, with Pilar +49% to 286,000 oz; M&I resources 1.80m oz and inferred resources 1.71m oz.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny deep dive (the price of DKK 32.41 is above DKK 3). Small gold producer in Minas Gerais, Brazil (Pilar, Turmalina/MTL and the Caeté complex). A price of CAD 6.98 and 85.33m shares (stockanalysis 10/10-2026) give a market cap of about CAD 596m; Nordnet showed DKK 2,646m. The company reports in USD; penny amounts are in CAD m after stockanalysis' conversion (cash CAD 112m; the company reported USD 74.0m at 30/6-2026). Turmalina was closed from December 2024 to 9/3-2026 after the landslide at the Satinoco tailings facility. Production guidance of 50,000-60,000 oz for 2026 comes from the company; AISC and capex guidance has not been given. The largest owner (insiders/strategic 48.8% according to stockanalysis) is not named and verified. Q3 production figures had not yet been published as of 11/10-2026.
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