Rankings Software, cloud & internet Clavister
Clavister
68
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−12
- Margin−5
- Quality of growth−5
Strengths
- Order book+3
- Debt reduction+1
- Civil customer base+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.84 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,062m
- Cash runway
- 25 months
- Cash / debt
- 41.7 / 109.7m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +7%
Bull case
European rearmament brings more defense contracts, the order book is converted, and revenue reaches SEK 600-700m in 2029 with a 20% operating margin (120-140m EBIT). At P/E 25 that corresponds to SEK 3-3.5bn, about 2x today; a 3x also requires a takeover bid from a defense group.
Bear case
Defense deliveries are uneven, ARR grows by only 4–5%, and the margin falls back toward zero. If the multiple falls from P/S 6 to the historical 2–3, the share price falls 50–65% without the company being in danger.
Catalysts
- 2026-09 onwardNew five-year civil contract of SEK 47m and cooperation with Akkodis on tactical communication in Europegradual nordicdefencesector.com
- 12 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: do the margin and order intake hold after the record quarter?gradual stockanalysis.com
- 2026–2028Delivery of the SEK 642m order book (defense) and new call optionsgradual inderes.fi
Risk of going to zerolow - positive operating result, order book of SEK 642m and an increased bank facility of SEK 130m. The risk is multiple compression, not bankruptcy.
Next financingNo issue needed: the company has a positive operating result, and the Swedbank facility has been raised from SEK 90m to 130m after Q2. The negative operating cash flow in H1 (c. −SEK 10m) is due to working capital for defence deliveries; the runway figure (25 months) is cash only and understates liquidity.
Warrants & convertiblesThe EIB options were exercised together with the loan in December 2025. Employee options exist (share count +6.7% in a year), but number, strike and expiry have not been investigated. No convertibles found.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined in detail; no insider trades found in the sources read. Insiders own c. 21% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot fully investigated. Insiders about 21% and institutions about 28% according to stockanalysis.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: no – approx. DKK 1.06bn. (2) Hot theme: yes – defense and European cybersecurity. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – deliveries and new orders, but no binary event. (4) Major partner: yes – defense customers (incl. the Norwegian procurement authority), Akkodis and a global enterprise customer. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – profit and bank facility. (6) Price near the bottom: no – only −8.5% in a year and P/S above the historical peak.
Why this asymmetryA healthier company than most in the group, but the price is already well above its own history, and the market cap is too large for a 3-10x without extraordinary growth. The downside from multiple compression is larger than the realistic upside.
How the score is built
From 100 to 68, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 4.33 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +12%
- P/E (trailing)
- 51.7
- Forward P/E
- 32.9
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−17 of −30
- −5MarginOperating margin has only turned positive in 2026: 6.3% TTM (EBIT SEK 17m), and Q2 2026 gave 14%. In 2021–2025 operating margin was −44% to −3%. The profit rests on one strong quarter with defence deliveries.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue rose 63% in Q2 to SEK 89.2m, but ARR rose only 4.5% (142.8 vs 136.6m), and order intake fell to 57.0m from 76.2m. Growth comes from lumpy defence deliveries, and operating cash flow was negative in both Q1 and Q2 (−3.7 and −6.7m) despite a profit.
- −2ROICROIC is 5.9% – below the cost of capital. ROE of 87% is due to a small equity base (SEK 107m) after many years of losses, not high capital efficiency.
- −3Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 56m (2023) to 371m via issues and expensive EIB loans with options; the EIB loan was only repaid in December 2025. The share count rose a further 6.7% in the past year.
- −2MoatIn enterprise firewalls Clavister is a small player against Fortinet, Palo Alto and Check Point. The niche in embedded cybersecurity for defence vehicles and European ('non-American') security is a real but narrow moat.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−12 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own historyP/S 6.0 (6.7 at Q2) vs 0.9–4.1 in 2021–2025, P/E 52 trailing and 32 forward, P/FCF 90 and EV/EBITDA 76 on stockanalysis' figures. The price assumes the Q2 margin holds and the order book is converted quickly.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−11 of −35
- −4Customer concentration and order intakeThe order book of SEK 642m is dominated by a few defence contracts (incl. purchase options from the Norwegian defence procurement authority); order intake fell 25% in Q2. Delays in one defence programme would hit revenue hard.
- −5Liquidity and debtCash fell from SEK 95.9m (end of 2025) to 41.7m at 30/6-2026 vs debt of 110m (incl. Swedbank and tax deferral); net debt rose from 27m to 68m. The Swedbank facility was increased from SEK 90m to 130m after the quarter.
- −2DilutionThe share count rose 6.7% in the past year (share-based pay and options); the history of heavy dilution makes it an ongoing risk.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +3Order bookThe order book is SEK 642m vs 375m a year earlier – approx. 2.4 times TTM revenue – which gives visibility several years ahead.
- +1Debt reductionThe EIB loan has been repaid in full incl. associated options (December 2025); total debt has fallen from SEK 326m (2024) to 110m.
- +1Civil customer baseLargest civilian contract ever (SEK 47m over five years) with a long-standing global corporate customer, September 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3), but not a classic penny stock: the price is SEK 4.30 = DKK 2.84, and the market cap is over DKK 1bn. Market cap checked: 371.4m shares × SEK 4.302 = SEK 1,598m ≈ DKK 1,053m, which fits Nordnet's DKK 1,062m. The Q2 report PDF could not be read; the figures are from the press release and stockanalysis. The defence order book's split by customer, outstanding options and insider trades have not been investigated. Stockanalysis' EBITDA (SEK 18m TTM) is lower than the company's own (24.6m in Q2 alone) due to capitalised development. No stockanalysis forecast page (404). Cybersecurity is placed in 'Software, cloud & internet'.
Also in Software, cloud & internet
The highest scores in the same industry.
