Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Curtiss-Wright
Curtiss-Wright
68
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−24
- Customer concentration−3
- Insider trading−3
Strengths
- Estimates+2
- Buybacks and dividend+2
- Order book+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 68, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 484.09 USD
- Median analyst target
- 642.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +32.6%
- Analysts
- 9
- Target range
- 518.00 – 870.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −19%
- P/E (trailing)
- 33.3
- Forward P/E
- 30.0
- PEG
- 1.92
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 1 finding±0 of −30
- ±0No deductionStronger, not just bigger: the operating margin has risen from 16.4% (2021) to 19.8% TTM (Q2: adjusted 19.4%, +110 bp), ROIC from 10.9% to 16.5%, and FCF from $347m to 625m. Growth is mostly organic; acquisitions have been small ($225m in 2024).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−24 of −35
- −24Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 33.2 vs 17.3–39.3 in FY21–25 (median 23.0, i.e. about 44% above); trailing P/E 36.6; EV/EBITDA 24.1 vs 12.2–26.7 (median 15.2); P/FCF 31.5 and FCF yield 3.2%. Far above defence peers such as Northrop (17) and RTX (25.5) – even after the fall from $793 to 532.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−11 of −35
- −3Customer concentrationGovernment customers make up 58% of sales, of which US defence 47%, but spread across many programmes (naval, ground, air and nuclear submarines).
- −2ExecutionSupply-chain pressure on electronics and rare earths; Defense Electronics revenue fell 3% in Q2 because tactical communications orders were pushed to Q4.
- −1GovernanceCEO Lynn Bamford is retiring; COO Kevin Rayment takes over on 1/1/2027 (announced 22/9, stock −4%). Internal and planned, but a leadership change in the middle of the nuclear upturn.
- −3Insider tradingAbout $14.3m sold in 2026 by nine insiders: CEO Bamford $5.9m (Mar and Jun, at $677–758), CFO Farkas $3.7m and incoming CEO Rayment $2.3m. Only one purchase: a board member for $149,000 (10/8). The earlier list mentioned only one sale of $1.9m.
- −2Macro and nuclear sentimentThe stock is about 33% below its $793 peak (6/7) after downgrades on valuation and swings in nuclear stocks; the expected first AP1000 order (DOE's conditional $17.5bn loan commitment) has not yet been placed. The defence budget runs on a CR to 11/12.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2EstimatesFull-year guidance raised in Q2: sales growth 8–9% (from 7–8%), operating margin 19.1–19.3% and EPS growth 14–16%.
- +2Buybacks and dividendTTM buybacks of $459m + dividends of $36m = $495m, below FCF of $625m; share count −2.2%. The 2026 buyback programme has been expanded by $100m to about $260m; 10th consecutive dividend increase.
- +1Order bookOrder intake of $1.1bn in Q2 (+8%, book-to-bill 1.16) and a record backlog of about $4.5bn (about 1.2 years of revenue).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Forward P/E 33 vs a historical median of about 23, even after a fall of about 33% from the July peak. Public-sector customers 58%. CEO change 1/1/2027. The expected AP1000 order has not yet come. Thin analyst coverage (9).
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