Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Danish Aerospace
Danish Aerospace
40
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Funding and liquidity−9
- Margin−8
- Quality of growth−6
Strengths
- Insider buying+2
- Strategic customer+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.40 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 46m
- Cash runway
- 0 months
- Cash / debt
- 0.0 / 1.1m DKK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +75%
Bull case
Commercial space stations (Axiom, Starlab and others) and ESA order E4D and medical equipment, and the defence track brings the first contracts, so revenue reaches DKK 40-50m with positive EBITDA. At 2x sales the market cap would be DKK 80-100m, about 2x today; more requires a major defence breakthrough.
Bear case
Orders keep failing to materialise, cash is empty, and the company has to do yet another guaranteed issue with a 10% commission far below DKK 2.40. With revenue under DKK 20m and a loss, the price could halve again.
Catalysts
- approx. 2026-11-24Q3 update: liquidity, whether the postponed orders have come in, and whether guidance (18–20m DKK) holdsbinary stockanalysis.com
- 2026–2027Development of the ESA motion capture system (space and defence) and possible first defence orders after the name changegradual inderes.fi
- 2026–2027Orders for E4D training equipment and medical equipment for commercial space stations that are to replace the ISSbinary inderes.fi
Risk of going to zeromedium – cash has been used up and operations lose money, but revenue is real, debt low (DKK 1.2m), and the board and M. Goldschmidt Capital have just put in money. New dilution is more likely than bankruptcy.
Next financingCash was effectively used up at 30/6-2026 (DKK 12,557), and operations used DKK 7.2m in H1. Working capital (about DKK 11m, mainly receivables and work in progress) must be converted to cash, otherwise a new credit facility or issue is required - probably around the Q3 update (about 24/11-2026) or the annual report in spring 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles found in the issue material or the half-year announcement; not exhaustively investigated.
Insiders, last 12 monthsApril 2026: chairman Niels Heering subscribed for about DKK 1m and board member Søren Bjørn Hansen (Silver Bear Holdings ApS) for about DKK 1m in the rights issue at DKK 3.00. A third-party site mentions insider sales, not verified.
Largest ownersNot fully investigated. M. Goldschmidt Capital A/S (subscribed for about DKK 6m in the issue, i.e. about 10% of the shares), FARGO ApS (DKK 1.5m), Niels Heering and Silver Bear Holdings ApS.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 46–53m. (2) Hot theme: yes – defense and space, but the company has no defense revenue yet. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – orders are expected, but no dated binary event. (4) Major partner: partial – ESA is a customer, but no major industrial partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – the cash is used up. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −73% in a year and 20% below the April issue price.
Why this asymmetryLow market cap and a hot theme, but an empty cash position, lowered guidance and an issue at DKK 3.00 that is already under water. Without defense orders, the next step is probably another dilutive issue.
How the score is built
From 100 to 40, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.45 DKK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −76%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−22 of −30
- −8MarginOperating margin −29% TTM and negative in four of the last five years (only 2023 was positive at 13.6%). H1 2026: EBITDA −DKK 2.0m and net result −DKK 2.3m on revenue of 8.2m. Gross margin has fallen from 76% (2021) to 48% TTM.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue is DKK 17.3m TTM vs 29.7m in 2023 (-42%) and fell 16% in H1 2026. Revenue is project- and delivery-based (E4D ergometers, ESA development contracts) and swings sharply.
- −5Capital allocationRights issue of 24.7 m DKK (April 2026, costs 4.2 m incl. 10% guarantee commission), but cash was only 12,557 DKK at 30/6-2026, after debt was reduced from 13.5 to 1.2 m and operations used 7.2 m. Half of the proceeds was earmarked for product development.
- −3MoatReal niche expertise (E4D training equipment on the ISS, respiratory and medical equipment for astronauts), but very small (24 employees) and dependent on a few public space programmes; the defence part is new and without documented orders.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−11 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyP/S about 2.7 at DKK 2.40 vs 1.1–1.8 at the year-ends 2022–2024, even though the company is now loss-making and revenue is lower. P/B about 2.0 and P/TBV above 4.
- −5FCF yieldFree cash flow −5.3 m DKK TTM (−7.3 m in H1 2026 alone), FCF yield about −10%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−24 of −35
- −9Funding and liquidityCash DKK 12,557 at 30/6-2026 only two months after an issue of DKK 24.7m; operating cash flow was -DKK 7.2m in H1, and EBITDA guidance for 2026 is -2 to 0m. New financing or a credit facility is needed in the short term.
- −6Customer and program dependenceExpected orders have not materialized due to 'the dynamic situation in global civil spaceflight'; revenue depends on ESA, the ISS (planned to be decommissioned around 2030) and a few commercial space station projects.
- −5DilutionThe share count rose about 75% from 10.98 to 19.22m with the issue in April 2026 at DKK 3.00; the price is now DKK 2.40, 20% below the issue price, so a new issue will dilute even more.
- −4Guidance downgrade2026 guidance lowered in August by about DKK 5m in revenue (now 18–20m incl. other income) and about DKK 3m in EBITDA (now −2 to 0m), a few months after the issue.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Insider buyingChairman Niels Heering and board member Søren Bjørn Hansen (Silver Bear Holdings) each subscribed about DKK 1m in the issue in April 2026 without an underwriting fee; M. Goldschmidt Capital subscribed about DKK 6m.
- +1Strategic customerNew ESA contract for a motion capture system with use in both space and defense, and two E4D models delivered to a commercial customer in H1 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). Market cap checked: 19.22m shares × 2.40 DKK = 46m DKK, lower than Nordnet's 53m DKK (which corresponds to a price around 2.74 DKK). The share count has risen approx. 75% after the rights issue in April 2026 (8.24m new shares at 3.00 DKK). The full PDF of the half-year report has not been read; cash, debt and cash flow are from stockanalysis and the company announcement. Unknown whether the company has an unused credit facility, so liquidity may be slightly better than the cash balance of 12,557 DKK shows. Order backlog is not disclosed. Insider selling is mentioned on a third-party site but is not verified. No stockanalysis forecast page (404 = no analysts). The company was called Danish Aerospace Company A/S until May 2026.
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