Rankings Commodities & uranium Critical Metals
Critical Metals
40
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Valuation vs NPV and history−24
- Margin−11
- Funding−9
Strengths
- Ownership+1
- Government support+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 40, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 6.78 USD
- Median analyst target
- 13.70 USD
- Upside to median
- +102.1%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 9.40 – 18.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −48%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−19 of −30
- −11MarginNo real revenue ($1.9m). Operating loss $80m and net loss $228m in the fiscal year to June 2026 (ROE −99%, counted only here).
- −5Future segmentTanbreez only has a PEA; there is no PFS or DFS. First ore is targeted for Q4 2028/Q1 2029 and concentrate exports for Q3 2029. Eudialyte ore is not processed commercially anywhere in the West.
- −3Capital allocation and payStock-based pay of $66m in fiscal 2026 ($31.7m a year earlier) at a company with no revenue – more than double the operating cash burn ($30m).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−24 of −35
- −24Valuation vs NPV and historyEV $1.03bn, about 0.35 times the PEA NPV (about $3bn pre-tax) for a project that lacks a feasibility study, funding and several years of construction; PEA figures are typically optimistic. P/B 3.27 vs 3.6–7.2 before, but book value is mostly a revalued mineral right; P/S 596.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−19 of −35
- −9FundingCash $102m, negative working capital (−$15m), current ratio 0.87 and FCF −$43m. The refinery study alone requires $1.85bn of capex on top of the mine, and the only government funding is a $120m LOI from EXIM.
- −5DilutionThe share count has risen 31.6% in a year and 17% in the last quarter; there are 14.5m private warrants (strike $7), and the 2025 PIPEs came with up to two warrants per share.
- −3Geopolitics and news-driven share priceThe stock is driven by US–Denmark–Greenland headlines: +25–35% on the security agreement on 21/9 and −6% the day after. Tanbreez's value depends on Greenlandic politics and permits.
- −2Short interest and coverage17.6% of the shares (31% of the free float) are sold short; only 2 analysts with a consensus Hold (targets $8–18).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1OwnershipGreenland's government approved the transfer of the last 50.5%, so CRML owns 92.5% of Tanbreez (April 2026).
- +1Government supportAn LOI from US EXIM Bank for a 15-year $120m loan to Tanbreez (June 2025) – still only a letter of intent.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Pre-revenue company: Tanbreez is only at PEA level (NPV about $3bn pre-tax, 12.5–15% discount rate), and the refinery in Romania is only a study. The fiscal year ends 30/6; the net loss ($228m) includes $66m of share-based pay and revaluations. The ownership stake rose from 42% to 92.5% in April 2026, paid in shares, which inflated book value (plant from $40m to $361m). The US government's possible equity stake (mentioned in October 2025) has not materialised. Only 2 analysts. Insider trading has not been examined.
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