Gevo
51
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Capital allocation−8
- Margin−7
- Political dependence (45Z and CO2 credits)−7
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Operating CCS asset+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 51, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.17 USD
- Median analyst target
- 2.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +113.7%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 1.20 – 14.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −50%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−24 of −30
- −7MarginOperating margin is −27.9% TTM (operating result −USD 49.6m on revenue of 177.5m) and net loss −213m incl. write-down; operating cash flow −29.4m in H1 2026. Gross margin of 44.7% is inflated by 45Z credits (32m in H1), booked as a reduction of production costs.
- −5Quality of growthThe revenue lift from 17m (2024) to 178m TTM comes from the acquisition of Red Trail Energy (Gevo North Dakota) for 210m in January 2025, not organic growth; H1 2026 +23% is primarily due to an extra acquisition quarter. The core product is commodity ethanol.
- −8Capital allocationLoss every year since 2005 and a large accumulated deficit; in Q2 2026 Lake Preston (ATJ-60) and ATJ-180 were abandoned with a writedown of 136m and a loss on a deposit of 40m, and the application for a DOE loan guarantee of approx. USD 1.6bn was withdrawn in April 2026. Reverse split 1:20 in 2018.
- −4MoatEthanol is a commodity where Green Plains, Alto Ingredients and REX produce on a much larger scale; Gevo's advantage is the operating CCS well in North Dakota, which gives low CO2 intensity and credits, but the SAF technology (alcohol-to-jet) is not yet commercialized.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyP/TBV 1.98 vs 1.0–1.44 in 2023–2025 and P/B 1.15 vs 0.5–1.0; PS 1.77 is lower than 2.94 in 2025, but only because revenue was acquired. No positive earnings to measure against.
- −6PeersEV/Sales 2.40 vs Green Plains 0.78, Alto Ingredients 0.37 and REX 1.64. EV of 426m corresponds to about 7x guidance EBITDA of >60m (in line with Green Plains 7.0 and REX 8.9), but only if the credit sales succeed; on TTM EBITDA (-23m) the stock is expensive.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−21 of −35
- −7Political dependence (45Z and CO2 credits)More than USD 70m in 45Z credits (2026 target) plus Canadian CFR credits and LCFS/RIN make up the majority of guidance EBITDA of >60m. 45Z runs to 2029 (OBBBA); changed rules, CI calculations or lower credit prices could remove the earnings.
- −4DebtTerm loan from Orion Infrastructure Capital increased to USD 175m in February 2026, 12% interest (about 21m a year), pledge over all assets and cash sweep; net debt 113m and cash fell from 81 to 58m in H1. Maturity only January 2030, covenants met.
- −4Funding need and dilutionATJ-30 (SAF) and the expansion of North Dakota to 150m gallons in 2028 require several hundred million USD without a DOE guarantee; an unused ATM programme of USD 500m is ready, and 33.3m warrants (strike USD 4.37, expiring June 2027) are outstanding.
- −2Insider sellingCEO Paul Bloom sold shares in May, June, August and September 2026 (incl. 75,735 shares at USD 1.76), and board member Patrick Gruber sold 591,674 shares for about USD 0.9m in six months; no open-market purchases found.
- −4Commodity cycleGevo North Dakota earns on the spread between ethanol, corn and by-products (DDGS, corn oil) and uses corn futures without hedge accounting; a poor crush spread hits EBITDA directly.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Raised guidance2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised from USD 30m to more than 60m; 20m in 45Z sales closed after the quarter and 50m more targeted before year-end; operating cash flow expected neutral to positive for 2026.
- +2Operating CCS assetOne of few ethanol plants in the US with operating carbon storage (Class VI well); a newly approved CI pathway under Canada's Clean Fuel Regulations gives credit sales from Q3 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Price USD 1.31 (2/10-2026). 247.2m shares (10-Q, 5/8-2026) give a market cap of about USD 324m (about DKK 2,132m); stockanalysis uses 239.4m shares (USD 313.6m), Nordnet shows DKK 2,165m. The TTM net loss of USD 213m is dominated by a non-cash write-down of 176m in Q2 2026 (exit from Lake Preston/ATJ-60 and ATJ-180); adjusted EBITDA is positive (19.6m in H1, guidance >60m for 2026). Earnings rest heavily on 45Z tax credits and CO2 credits (CCS in North Dakota). The analysts' average price target of USD 5.18 (+295%, 4 analysts, one at 14) is misleading; the median is USD 2.50. No going concern warning, no Nasdaq notice (price above USD 1). A USD 500m ATM program is registered (S-3 from January 2024) but unused at 30/6-2026. Industry: low-emission ethanol/fuel, closest to 'Energy: oil & gas'; cyclical due to ethanol/corn margins.
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