Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants H&M
H&M
49
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Quality of growth−6
- Margin−4
- Multiples vs own history−4
Strengths
- Insider buying+3
- Cost discipline+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 49, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 177.55 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 155.00 SEK
- Upside to median
- −12.7%
- Analysts
- 26
- Target range
- 114.00 – 200.00 SEK
- 52-week change
- −1%
- P/E (trailing)
- 21.5
- Forward P/E
- 21.9
- PEG
- 6.32
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−15 of −30
- −6Quality of growthRevenue has fallen three years in a row: from SEK 236.0bn in 2023 to 228.3bn in 2025 and 220.8bn TTM; nine months of 2026 −4.4% in SEK, Q3 only +1% in local currency, and September is expected at +1%. Consensus expects −2.3% for 2026 as a whole.
- −4MarginOperating margin 9.0% TTM vs 20.1% at Inditex; Q3's 10.6% was lifted by a one-off effect of about 1.6 pp from tariffs, so the underlying operating margin was about 9%. H&M was above 15% in the 2010s.
- −3MoatSqueezed between Inditex (expected growth of about 7% a year, ROIC 46%) and ultra-cheap online players; H&M's revenue is shrinking while its largest competitor grows, and margin improvements come from cost cutting, not pricing power.
- −2Capital allocationThe dividend (SEK 10.5bn and 10.9bn) exceeded FCF after leases (9.1bn and 9.6bn) in both 2024 and 2025, and the dividend payment is 84% of net profit; buybacks are small (1.2bn TTM).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−9 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 19.8 vs 16.6–21.3 in 2021–2025 and P/B 6.5 vs 3.8–6.4 – the upper part of the range for a company with falling revenue and EPS growth of only about 4–5% a year.
- −3FCF yield after leasesFCF after leases of SEK 15.1bn TTM gives 5.9% of the SEK 257bn market value, but only 3.7% on 2025 figures (9.6bn); net debt incl. leases SEK 52.9bn.
- −2PeersForward P/E 19.8 vs 23.5 for Inditex – only about a 16% discount, even though H&M has less than half of Inditex's operating margin and negative growth.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−9 of −35
- −4One-off items and tariffsThe 54.0% gross margin in Q3 included a one-off effect of about 1.6 pp from refunded tariffs; underlying about 52.4% vs 52.9% a year earlier. The +23% in operating profit therefore overstates the improvement, and tariff costs on goods from Asia are a lasting risk.
- −2Logistics and inventoryDisruptions in the European logistics network during consolidation hit sales in Q3, and inventory rose to SEK 39.4bn from 37.9bn (+3.7%) while sales were flat.
- −3Governance and controlThe Persson family owns 68.7% of the capital and 85.1% of the votes and keeps buying; minority shareholders have no influence, and the free float is shrinking, with a risk of a later squeeze-out bid at a low premium.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Insider buyingThe Persson family (Ramsbury) has bought about 36.8m shares for over SEK 6.2bn in 2026, most recently 7.4m B shares at SEK 162.44 (1.2bn) on 24–26 Sept, right after the Q3 report.
- +1Cost disciplineSelling and administrative expenses fell 4% in the first nine months, and operating cash flow rose 17% to SEK 26.5bn.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The B share (HM.B); fiscal year Dec.–Nov., so Q3 = June–Aug. 2026. Clothing retail does not fit the industry list: placed under 'Food, drinks & restaurants' as the closest consumer category. stockanalysis' FCF (27bn) is before lease payments; FCF after leases (15.1bn TTM) is used. Net debt of SEK 52.9bn is mainly lease liabilities. EV/EBITDA is not used because stockanalysis' current EBITDA is not comparable with history.
Also in Food, drinks & restaurants
The highest scores in the same industry.
