Rankings Utilities & power Hydrogène de France
Hydrogène de France
49
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Execution – CEOG−7
- Quality of growth−6
Strengths
- Net cash+4
- State backing+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 49, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.90 EUR
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −55%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue was only EUR 0.55m in H1 2026 and the operating result −4.6m. A loss every year since the IPO (net result −3.4 to −10.9m EUR in 2021–2025). The small loss in 2025 (−2.4m operating) was due to grants of EUR 16.6m incl. a catch-up adjustment for earlier years.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue fell from EUR 11.1m in 2024 to 1.0m in 2025 and consists of consulting and construction support on individual projects. The target of EUR 100m in revenue in 2027 has been abandoned.
- −5Capital allocationThe 2021 listing raised EUR 106m, and cash is now 27.2m. The project portfolio has been cut from USD 3.0bn to 2.3bn, the Los Cabos project (Mexico) has been scaled down to a third with a loss of EUR 0.5m, and the South Africa project has been written down by EUR 1.5m.
- −4Moat / segment of the futureThe Renewstable concept (solar plus hydrogen storage delivering stable power) is not proven in operation; the first plant (CEOG) is not yet delivering power. The MW fuel cell factory in Blanquefort has only reached the prototype stage (30/6/2026) and must compete with Ballard and other established producers.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−2 of −35
- −2Price vs cash and own historyP/B is 0.38 vs 0.6–3.3 in 2021–2025, and EV is approx. EUR 3m (market value 30m vs net cash of 26.9m). The stock is cheap vs its own history, but cash falls by approx. EUR 6m over the half-year, so the discount is partly justified.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−24 of −35
- −7Execution – CEOGThe flagship CEOG in French Guiana is delayed by about two years due to conflict with the local population. Start-up was promised for mid-2026, but the first deliveries to the grid are now expected only toward the end of 2026.
- −6Project financing and future dilutionThe portfolio is valued at over 2bn EUR in investments, but each project requires external project financing and equity from HDF. Renewstable Barbados has a licence, but no funding or investment decision has been announced. With cash of 27m EUR, HDF cannot fund its share of several projects without share issues or divestments.
- −4Grant dependenceThe fuel cell programme rests on IPCEI grants from Bpifrance (up to EUR 168.9m, paid out against documented expenses; 25.4m received). The result depends on when the grants are recognised as income, and there is political risk that France cuts hydrogen support.
- −4Control and liquidityFounder and CEO Damien Havard owns 48.25% of the capital and 53.7% of the votes, and the free float is about 3m shares. Trading is very thin (about DKK 22,000 a day on Nordnet), so minority shareholders have little influence and find it hard to exit.
- −3Market/sector riskThe hydrogen sector is under pressure: Lhyfe has an EV of EUR 124m with 121m in debt and large losses, and projects are being scaled down (HDF's own Mexico project to a third). The stock has fallen 49% in a year and 35% in three months.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+6 of +15
- +4Net cashNet cash was EUR 26.9m as of 30/6-2026, and an IPCEI grant of EUR 12.7m arrived in July. Pro forma approx. EUR 39m vs a market cap of approx. 30m and almost no debt (0.3m).
- +2State backingFinancing agreement with Bpifrance (5/12-2025) under France 2030 of up to 168.9 m EUR in grants (non-repayable advances) for the fuel cell factory, and CEOG is financed by Meridiam, SARA and EIB.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
HDF Energy is NOT in restructuring (no sauvegarde or redressement) and has no significant debt, so the ordinary penny calibration has been used. Market cap is calculated at EUR 30.3m (14.51m shares × EUR 2.09, about DKK 226m), slightly below Nordnet's DKK 246m. Cash of EUR 27.2m is at 30/6-2026; in addition an IPCEI grant of EUR 12.7m came in July 2026, but part of it covers expenses already incurred. Operating income at stockanalysis (positive TTM) is distorted by grants, including a catch-up adjustment of EUR 6.6m for 2022-2024; the company's own figures (operating loss −EUR 4.6m in H1 2026) are used. Shareholdings are from 2023-2024 (Damien Havard 48.25% in October 2024; Rubis 17.66% in July 2023) and not verified for 2026. No analyst coverage at stockanalysis. Industry set to Utilities & power (project developer of hydrogen power plants plus fuel cell factory). Short interest not investigated.
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