Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Hofseth BioCare

Hofseth BioCare

Food, drinks & restaurants · NorwayRank 664 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4Penny

15070100

The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.

Biggest deductions

Margin−12
Debt and equity−12
Multiples vs own history−6

Strengths

Pricing power+2
Insider buying+2

Speculative profile

A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.

All penny stocks

Asymmetry (1–10): 3
Price: 0.88 DKK
Market value: DKK 463m
Cash runway: 48 months
Cash / debt: 108.0 / 339.0m NOK
Dilution, 12 months: +27%

Bull case

The price increases of over 100% come through, B2B Consumer Health and Boots UK/network marketing scale, and revenue grows to 400m NOK with a 15% EBITDA margin (60m NOK). Combined with a positive NT-II result or a partnership in AecorBio, market cap could go from approx. 0.7 to 2bn NOK (3x).

Bear case

The price increases cost volume, revenue keeps falling, and the 121.5m NOK of short-term debt can only be refinanced via a new issue well below 1.30 NOK or a debt conversion to the major owners. With negative equity the stock could fall 50–80%.

Catalysts

H2 2026Results from the knee pain trial with NT-II (calcium/collagen from salmon bone)binary globenewswire.com
6 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: effect of the price increases on ProGo/OmeGo and whether operations are close to EBITDA balancegradual stockanalysis.com
late 2026Planned FDA IND application for FT-002a-O (AecorBio)gradual globenewswire.com

Risk of going to zeromedium – negative equity and short-term debt above cash, but operations are close to EBITDA break-even, and the largest owner has repeatedly converted debt and subscribed for new shares.

Next financingCash of NOK 108m at 30/6-2026 (liquidity 109m) after the June issue. Average FCF over the last four quarters is approx. −NOK 7m per quarter, so the formula gives approx. 48 months – but NOK 121.5m of debt falls due within 12 months and exceeds cash. Refinancing of the short-term debt (or a new issue/debt conversion) is therefore necessary during 2026–2027.

Warrants & convertibles16m B preferred shares (Hofseth International, subscribed at NOK 9 in 2024 in a debt conversion of NOK 144m) can be converted at the earliest after 5 years at NOK 9 and after 7 years at NOK 12 – far above the price, so no dilution now, but the preferred dividend accumulates ahead of the A shareholders. Other warrants/options not mapped.

Insiders, last 12 monthsJune 2026: Hofseth International (largest owner, Roger Hofseth) subscribed for 30.4m shares for NOK 39.5m at NOK 1.30; Scatterty Holdings subscribed for 38.5m shares for NOK 50m. No insider selling found (Newsweb not systematically reviewed).

Largest ownersHofseth International AS (largest owner; insiders combined about 31%), Scatterty Holdings about 7% (38.5m shares), institutions about 15%. Exact stakes for the other top 5 not confirmed.

Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – DKK 463m. (2) Hot theme: no – marine ingredients; the medical pipeline (asthma, knee) is early. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – NT-II results in H2 2026 and IND in late 2026, but small. (4) Major partner: partial – Boots UK and an unnamed global network marketing partner, no big pharma. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – NOK 121.5m matures within 12 months. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – −28% in a year and market cap down from NOK 2.5bn in 2021.

Why this asymmetryBetter margins and insider buying at market price are real positive signs, but revenue is falling, equity is negative, and refinancing the short-term debt could dilute again. 3x upside requires both commercial growth and a medical breakthrough; most likely is sideways with dilution.

How the score is built

From 100 to 42, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

42Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 1.14 NOK
Median analyst target: –
Upside to median: –
Analysts: none
Target range: –
52-week change: −41%
P/E (trailing): n/a
Forward P/E: n/a
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−26 of −30

Margin
Operating margin −47% and profit margin −56% (TTM, net loss NOK 137m); operating loss in all years 2021–2025 (−44% to −135%), only one positive quarter (Q2 2023) in five years. Gross margin is only 30% for the year despite 50% in Q2.
stockanalysis.com
−12
Quality of growth
Revenue fell 3.5% in 2025 and 7.6% TTM (NOK 242m); Q2 2026 was NOK 65.7m vs 68.4m the year before. B2B Consumer Health grew 72% quarter over quarter, but only to NOK 16m.
globenewswire.com
−5
Capital allocation
Repeated issues and debt conversions (B shares for 144 m NOK in 2024, directed issues in 2025–2026); the share count has risen from 358 to 522 m since 2021, and ROIC is −24%. Capital is at the same time spent on an early medical pipeline (asthma, IND late 2026) without revenue.
stockanalysis.com
−5
Moat
Ingredients from salmon by-products (ProGo, OmeGo, CalGo) in a market with large competitors in marine proteins and omega-3; no documented scale or patent-protected volume, and revenue has not grown since 2024.
stockanalysis.com
−4

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−10 of −35

Multiples vs own history
P/S 2.85 vs 2.12 (2025) and 2.63 (2024) – more expensive than recent years on falling revenue; EV/sales 3.8 and negative P/B (−22) due to negative equity.
stockanalysis.com
−6
FCF yield
FCF -NOK 27m TTM (FCF yield -3.9%); improved from -28m operating cash flow in 2025 to +2m TTM, but still negative after capex.
stockanalysis.com
−4

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−20 of −35

Debt and equity
Negative equity (−NOK 31m after −75.5m at the end of 2025), total debt NOK 339m, of which 121.5m is short-term, current ratio 0.85 and interest cover −4.1. Net interest-bearing debt was NOK 298m at the turn of the year.
ilaks.no
−12
Dilution
Directed issue in June 2026: 111m new shares at NOK 1.30 (NOK 144.5m, of which about 66.5m by conversion of receivables) – about +27% shares. The price is now NOK 1.28, just below the issue price.
tipranks.com
−5
Related parties
The largest owner Hofseth International is at the same time raw material supplier and creditor; NOK 144m in trade payables was converted in 2024 into B preferred shares with accumulated preferred dividend (NIBOR + up to 3%), which rank ahead of ordinary shareholders.
ilaks.no
−3

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15

Pricing power
The contracts show over 100% higher average prices year over year for ProGo and OmeGo; gross margin rose to 50% in Q2 2026 (43.5% in Q1), and the same revenue was generated with 44% less raw material.
globenewswire.com
+2
Insider buying
The largest owner Hofseth International subscribed 30.4m shares for NOK 39.5m in the June issue at market price (NOK 1.30), and new investor Scatterty Holdings subscribed for NOK 50m.
globenewswire.com
+2

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). No stockanalysis forecast page (404) – no analyst coverage. Debt maturities and lenders have not been found in detail; stockanalysis shows NOK 121.5m of short-term debt and NOK 217m of long-term at 30/6-2026. Covenant status at Q2 2026 is not confirmed (at Q4 2025 there was no breach). The cash portion of the June issue was partly settled in Q3, so cash after Q2 may be slightly higher. 16m B preferred shares owned by Hofseth International (conversion at NOK 9/12) are included in the share count of 522m. Marine ingredients and dietary supplements fit best in 'Consumer: food, beverages & restaurants' (alternative: Medicine & medtech because of the early pipeline in AecorBio).