Rankings Commodities & uranium Global Atomic
Global Atomic
42
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Jurisdiction−12
- Funding−11
- Margin−10
Strengths
- State funding approval+2
- Offtake contracts+2
- Cash flow from the zinc JV+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 1.79 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,055m
- Cash runway
- 6 months
- Cash / debt
- 30.0 / 4.4m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +87%
Bull case
The DFC conditions are met in 2027, a JV partner pays for a minority stake instead of new issues, and Dasa (68m lb over 23+ years, Africa's highest-grade uranium resource) comes into operation in 2028 with a high uranium price. With 80% of a project in which US$228m has already been invested, a market cap of C$0.6–1bn (3–4x today's about C$227m) could be possible – but only if the dilution is kept down.
Bear case
The junta changes the terms (as with Orano), the export route stays closed, or the DFC conditions cannot be met; then the remaining approx. C$215m of equity must be raised at ever lower prices, or the project stalls with US$228m sunk in Niger. Shareholders could be diluted by a further 50–100%, and in a nationalization the stock is close to worthless.
Catalysts
- 1 Oct 2026Closing of the C$50m issue (100m units at C$0.50)gradual stocktitan.net
- 13 Nov 2026Q3 results (estimated date) – cash, capex burn and status of DFC conditionsgradual stockanalysis.com
- H2 2028Commissioning of the process plant and first yellowcake from Dasabinary investingnews.com
- No date givenFulfilment of DFC's five conditions (export route, extended mine convention, repatriation guarantee, agreement with the state, final loan documentation) and possible sale of a minority stake to the JV partnerbinary discoveryalert.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – large, real project with US government loan approval, but everything rests on one mine in a military-run state that has nationalised a competitor, and the equity gap is larger than the market cap.
Next financingCash of C$30.0m at 30/6 + approx. C$47m net from the issue; with TTM spending of approx. C$26m per quarter (almost all capex) that lasts approx. 6 months from October. Before the DFC loan can be drawn, a further US$152.7m (approx. C$215m) of equity must be spent – i.e. approx. C$140–170m more via issues, a JV partner (the company is negotiating the sale of a minority stake) or other financing in 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesIssue 23/9-2026: 100m units at C$0.50 (1 share + ½ warrant); 50m warrants at C$0.70 with a 36-month term; over-allotment option of up to 15% (15m units). The share count rose 56% in the 12 months to 30/6 (490.3m) and about 20% more with the issue, in total about +87%. Options and earlier warrants not counted.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked). Insiders own c. 4.2% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail. Institutions own c. 26% and insiders c. 4.2% (stockanalysis); the state of Niger owns 20% of the project company SOMIDA (not of Global Atomic).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – approx. DKK 1.05bn after the issue. (2) Hot theme: yes – uranium and nuclear power. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – DFC conditions, JV partner, export route. (4) Major partner: yes, partial – DFC (US government) and US utilities as offtakers, but the loan is conditional. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 6 months of runway and an equity requirement of USD 152.7m. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −47% in a year and below the issue price.
Why this asymmetryThere is real upside if the DFC loan is released and Dasa is completed, and the share price is pressured after the issue. But the equity gap (about C$215m against a market cap of about C$227m) means that much of the upside goes to new shareholders, and the Niger risk gives a real zero tail.
How the score is built
From 100 to 42, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.32 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 1.50 CAD
- Upside to median
- +376.2%
- Analysts
- 5
- Target range
- 0.60 – 2.00 CAD
- 52-week change
- −38%
- P/E (trailing)
- 18.5
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−20 of −30
- −10MarginNo mine revenue: revenue c. C$1.0m (fees) and operating result −C$9.9m TTM. The net profit of C$7.6m comes from non-cash items; operating cash flow is −C$4.1m and FCF −C$102.8m. The loss is counted only here, not under ROIC.
- −10Execution and capexDasa's total construction budget has been lifted to US$777.2m incl. financing costs and contingency, of which US$228.5m was spent at 30/6-2026 and 550.1m remains. First yellowcake has been pushed to H2 2028 – several years after the original plan – and the DFC loan has grown 40% from US$295m (2024) due to higher costs.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Valuation vs historyP/B 0.46 vs 0.8–8 in 2021–25 and EV approx. CAD 164m vs US$228.5m invested in Dasa. The discount, however, reflects that book value sits in Niger and requires a further approx. US$550m to turn into cash flow; FCF yield −54%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−31 of −35
- −11FundingThe DFC loan (US$397.4m + 16.8m overrun facility) can only be drawn once the company has spent a further US$152.7m (about C$215m) of equity – more than the entire market cap. The loan is conditional on five factors, including a usable export route, extension of the mining convention and a guarantee of being able to take money out of Niger.
- −12JurisdictionThe only project is in Niger, where the military junta has nationalized Orano's SOMAIR mine (June 2025) and stripped Orano of the Imouraren license since the 2023 coup. The border with Benin has been closed since 2023, so the export route for yellowcake is not yet secured; the state owns 20% of SOMIDA and can demand up to 40% under the mining code.
- −6DilutionThe share count has risen 56% over a year, and on 23/9 100m units were sold at C$0.50 (about +20%) with 50m warrants at C$0.70 for 3 years. The price (C$0.385) is already 23% below the issue price, and the remaining equity requirement makes more issues almost certain.
- −2SentimentThe stock is −47% over 52 weeks and trades below both the 50- and 200-day averages (C$0.55 and 0.71); Jefferies initiated coverage on 3/9 with Hold and a price target of C$0.60.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2State funding approvalThe board of the US DFC approved on 16/9-2026 a loan facility of up to US$414.2m to Dasa – a real validation of the project, but still conditional.
- +2Offtake contractsAgreements for about 8.8m lb U3O8 over the first seven years, about 90% with US utilities and one European; covers about 11% of the mine plan.
- +1Cash flow from the zinc JVThe Turkish zinc JV (BST, 49%) has paid out C$3.9m in dividends year to date in 2026 (2.4m in July) – a small but real source of cash.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). Uranium developer with no mining revenue; revenue of approx. 1m C$ is fees from the zinc JV in Turkey (BST, 49%), and TTM net income (7.6m C$) stems from non-cash gains, not operations. Share count 490.3m before the issue of 100m units at 0.50 C$ (closing expected 1/10-2026, plus up to 15% over-allotment); after the issue approx. 590m shares and 50m warrants at 0.70 C$. Cash at 30/9 is not disclosed – runway is an estimate based on cash at 30/6 (30.0m C$), TTM burn and the net proceeds. There is no updated NPV/IRR after the capex increase to 777m US$, so EV vs NPV cannot be calculated. Insider trades and largest shareholders have not been examined systematically. Nordnet's market cap (910m DKK) predates the issue.
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