Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Intrum
Intrum
45
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Debt and refinancing−10
- Capital allocation−8
- Margin−7
Strengths
- Strategic owners+3
- Rating upgrades+2
- Cost programme+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.02 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 6,645m
- Cash runway
- 15 months
- Cash / debt
- 3,004.0 / 46,826.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +2,250%
Bull case
Leverage reaches 3.0x in 2028, servicing stabilizes, and interest expenses fall on refinancing. If net result returns to the 2021 level (3.1 bn SEK ≈ 1 SEK per share), a P/E of 9 gives a share price of about 9 SEK = 3x. Analysts' price targets are 4.70–6.40 SEK (+55–110%).
Bear case
Falling servicing income (Greece, Spain, UK) and high interest rates keep the result near zero (EPS 2026e SEK 0.17). If the market closes in 2027, a new restructuring or issue could again wipe out most of the shareholder value - it has happened once in two years.
Catalysts
- 23 Oct 2026Q3 2026 report: first quarter with the issue proceeds, leverage and whether the servicing outlook holdsgradual stockanalysis.com
- 2027Refinancing of new money notes (maturing Dec. 2027) and first exchange notes – test of market access after Chapter 11binary investing.com
- 2028Target of servicing gearing of 3.0x and up to SEK 7bn of extra portfolio investments 2026–2028gradual intrum.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – the share issue has removed the acute risk and given a B−/B3 rating, but debt is still approx. 4.3x servicing EBITDA, tangible equity is negative, and 2027 requires refinancing.
Next financingQuarterly burn = cash interest (SEK 5.5bn TTM). Cash and debt are at 30/6 before the issue proceeds of about SEK 7.5bn, which go to debt reduction. 'Runway' = time to the next major maturity: new money notes (about EUR 526m) in Dec. 2027 and the first exchange notes in 2027. The company says the issue removes the need for more equity; the next step is refinancing in the bond market in 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles or warrants found after the restructuring. The share count has risen c. 23 times (136 → 3,182m) via a rights issue (2,433m new shares, 1:18) and a directed issue at SEK 2.45 – corresponding to 95.7% dilution. The share price is now c. 25% above the issue price.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases in the market found. Kistefos (Christen Sveaas) and Toluma bought in the directed issue at SEK 2.45 in July 2026.
Largest ownersNordic Capital about 7.8% (before the issue) and Kistefos about 7.2%; Carnegie Fonder, DNB Asset Management and Toluma as new owners. Holdings after the issue are not confirmed. Insiders 0.23%, institutions 15.5%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: no – DKK 6.6bn. (2) Hot theme: no – debt collection. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – quarterly reports and refinancing, gradual. (4) Major partner: yes – Kistefos, Nordic Capital, Carnegie and DNB put money in at SEK 2.45. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial – the issue covers debt reduction, but the 2027 maturities must be refinanced. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −70.7% in a year (adjusted), but already +25% above the issue price.
Why this asymmetryThe worst (the dilution) has happened, and smart money has bought at SEK 2.45, so part of the downside has shifted to the creditors. But the upside is limited by 3.2bn shares and earnings that are still falling; a 3x requires a full return to 2021 earnings. Very high liquidity makes it easy to trade.
How the score is built
From 100 to 45, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.01 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 3.50 SEK
- Upside to median
- +74.5%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 2.90 – 4.00 SEK
- 52-week change
- −96%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 124.0
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−24 of −30
- −7MarginOperating margin 35%, but net loss in four of the last five years (2022 −4.5, 2023 −0.2, 2024 −3.7, 2025 −1.4 SEK bn; TTM −2.0bn). Cash interest of SEK 5.5bn TTM eats almost all of EBIT of 5.8bn.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue -6.4% TTM and -4% in Q2 2026; EBIT -14%. Management warns of a harder servicing year due to portfolio run-off in Greece and Spain, weak sales in the UK and divestments in Germany.
- −8Capital allocationDebt-financed portfolio purchases and dividends of about SEK 1.6bn a year in 2021–2023, while leverage rose, ended in Chapter 11 with a 10% write-down of the bonds (paid in shares) and then an issue with 95.7% dilution. Write-downs and restructuring of SEK 4.5bn in 2025.
- −3Future segmentThe 'specialised markets' (Greece, Spain) are in structural run-off, and investment income has fallen from about SEK 8.9bn (2022) to 4.7bn (2025). The investment segments have fallen together every year (8.9 → 8.5 → 6.5 → 4.7bn).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−11 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 18.6 (EPS 2026e 0.17 SEK on the new share count) vs 3.2–8.6 in 2021–2025; EV/EBITDA 8.0 is in line with 8.1–10.9 in the normal years. After the dilution the stock is not cheap on earnings.
- −4FCF yieldThe stated FCF yield of 78% is an illusion (collections on portfolios are counted as operations); levered FCF was −SEK 2.4bn TTM after interest and portfolio investments.
- −2Peers and substanceP/B approx. 0.45 pro forma, but tangible equity is negative (−SEK 19.8bn before the issue, approx. −12bn after), because goodwill from the Lindorff merger dominates. Hoist Finance is profitable and trades near book value.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−18 of −35
- −10Debt and refinancingGross debt SEK 46.8bn (4.6 x market cap) before the issue; servicing leverage 4.3 x pro forma vs a target of 3.0 x in 2028. New money notes (about EUR 526m) mature Dec 2027, and exchange notes mature 2027–2030, so 2027 is a refinancing year.
- −6DilutionIssue of SEK 7.5bn at SEK 2.45 per share (1:18) gave 95.7% dilution; the share count rose from 136 to 3,182m, on top of 10% new shares to the bondholders in 2025.
- −2Governance and managementInsiders own only 0.23%; change of CEO (Andrés Rubio → Johan Åkerblom) in the middle of the restructuring.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +3Strategic ownersKistefos (7.2%), Toluma, Carnegie Fonder and DNB AM subscribed to the targeted issue, Nordic Capital (7.8%) supported it, and the rights issue was subscribed 139% without use of the guarantees.
- +2Rating upgradesS&P raised to B− with a positive outlook and Moody's two notches to B3 after the capital raise (from D/Ca in 2025).
- +1Cost programmeHeadcount −8% year over year, and the servicing EBIT margin has been at 25% for three quarters in a row; target for costs of SEK 10–11bn in 2030.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3), turnaround after the Chapter 11 restructuring (2025) and an issue of SEK 7.5bn (June–July 2026, 95.7% dilution; share count 136 → 3,182m). Stockanalysis' 52-week change (−94%) and 200-day average are not adjusted for the subscription rights; Nordnet shows −70.7%. The balance sheet at 30/6 is before the issue proceeds; debt, P/B and cash are therefore too high/low relative to pro forma. Stockanalysis' FCF (7.9bn) includes collections on portfolios and is not genuine free cash flow. The very high turnover (DKK 55.7m/day) is primarily because the share count has increased 23-fold after the issue (new shares traded from 14/7) and flipping by issue participants; no specific September news found. Only 3 analysts. Debt collection does not fit the list; 'Finance, data & insurance brokerage' chosen.
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