Rankings Defence, aerospace & space KebNi
KebNi
53
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−7
- Quality of growth−7
- Customer concentration−6
Strengths
- Order from large customer+2
- Largest owner buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 5
- Price
- 0.51 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 175m
- Cash runway
- 20 months
- Cash / debt
- 50.0 / 7.2m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +26%
Bull case
The Satcom orders from NATO countries come in H2 2026, IMU capacity doubles, and new defence and industrial customers come beyond Saab. If sales return to SEK 130–150m with an operating margin of 8–10%, EV/Sales of 2–3 can justify a value of SEK 400–600m (1.5–2.5x); a larger NATO satcom contract can give more.
Bear case
The Satcom orders keep failing to materialise, NLAW volume falls after 2027, and the loss continues. Then the cash runs out during 2027–2028, and a new issue at DKK 0.4–0.6 becomes necessary; the price may halve.
Catalysts
- 2026-08 – 2027Deliveries on the new NLAW order from Saab of SEK 22mgradual inderes.fi
- 21 Oct 2026Q3 report: whether the Satcom orders and sales actually turn ('full recovery in Q3')binary mfn.se
- 16 Feb 2027Annual accounts 2026: first year after the issue and the doubling of IMU capacitygradual mfn.se
Risk of going to zerolow - the company has about SEK 100m in revenue, Saab as a regular customer, about 50m in cash and a 12-month lock-up on new shares
Next financingCash was about 0 at 30/6 with SEK 7.2m drawn on the credit. The targeted issue raised 55m gross (44m in tranche 1 in August, 11m in tranche 2 after the general meeting on 16/9), so cash is estimated at about 50m. With the H1 average spending of about 7.4m per quarter that lasts about 20 months, but 80% of the money is earmarked for capacity expansion and product development. New issue at the earliest after August 2027 (lock-up).
Warrants & convertiblesNo outstanding warrants or convertible loans found (incentive programs not reviewed). The company has committed not to issue new shares for 12 months after the issue in August 2026.
Insiders, last 12 monthsThe largest shareholder, Salénia AB (via 3S Invest), expressed interest in subscribing SEK 10m at DKK 0.80 in the directed issue (tranche 2 of about 11m approved 16/9-2026). Board and management have a 3-month lock-up. No sales found.
Largest ownersSalénia AB / 3S Invest is the largest shareholder (stake not stated). Insiders about 16.3%, institutions about 15.1% (stockanalysis, before the issue).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 175m. (2) Hot theme: yes, defense and NATO satcom. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial, the Q3 report and Satcom orders, but no major binary data. (4) Major partner: yes, Saab is the main customer with a new order in August. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial, approx. 20 months and a 12-month lock-up. (6) Price near the bottom: yes, −66% in a year and below the issue price of DKK 0.80.
Why this asymmetryIt is a real business with Saab as a customer, a hot defence theme and financing secured for about 1.5 years, and the price is close to the bottom with EV/Sales at the low end of its history. The upside is however more 2–3x than 10x, and the customer concentration and the repeated order delays weigh it down.
How the score is built
From 100 to 53, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.60 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −66%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 15.4
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−21 of −30
- −7MarginThe gross margin is stable at about 48%, but the operating margin has fallen from +2–4% in 2024–2025 to −14.6% (TTM). EBITDA was −SEK 6.8m in H1 2026 vs +8.3m a year earlier, and the net loss was −23.9m.
- −7Quality of growthSales fell 39% in H1 2026 to SEK 41.9m and 14% in Q2 due to delayed Satcom orders. Revenue is lumpy and depends on individual orders: 2024 and 2025 were lifted by an NLAW order from Saab of 134m.
- −3MoatThe niche position in tailored inertial sensors (IMU) and satcom gimbals as one of few fully EU-based NATO suppliers is real, but the company is very small relative to the large satcom and sensor suppliers and has only 26 employees.
- −4Capital allocationThe share count grew 46–80% a year in 2021–2023. In Q2 2026 the stake in the joint venture ScaffSense was written down (about SEK 10.5m of the net loss of 14.3m), and the stake was sold in September: a failed side investment.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−6 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 2.3 vs 2.2-7.2 in 2021-2025, i.e. at the bottom of the range, but forward P/E has risen to 39.5 from 20 at the turn of the year, because earnings expectations have fallen faster than the price.
- −4Peers and absolute levelWith approx. 343m shares, EV is approx. SEK 230m, i.e. 2.3x declining sales for a loss-making hardware producer. Even after the price fall the share is not cheap until the Satcom orders are in hand.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−17 of −35
- −6Customer concentrationSweden accounted for SEK 117m of 125m (94%) of sales in 2025, mainly Saab's NLAW programme. A pause in NLAW orders hits revenue directly.
- −5Execution and order delaysThe Satcom orders have been delayed for several quarters due to end customers' decision and purchasing processes, and Q2 was below expectations. Management expects 'full recovery in Q3', but has not given figures.
- −4Funding and dilutionCash was about 0 at 30/6 with SEK 7.2m of drawn credit and operating spending of 11.5m in Q2. The targeted issue in August of 68.75m shares at kr 0.80 (22.9% discount) diluted about 25%.
- −2Share price riskThe price has fallen 66% over a year and now trades below the August issue price of DKK 0.80.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Order from large customerNew volume order of SEK 22m from Saab in August 2026 for IMUs for NLAW, with deliveries through 2027. It shows that the main customer stays.
- +1Largest owner buyingThe largest shareholder, Salénia AB (via 3S Invest), expressed interest in subscribing SEK 10m in the directed issue at DKK 0.80, and the company has committed not to issue new shares for 12 months.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Stockanalysis uses 274m shares from before the directed issue. With the 68.75m new B shares from August 2026 there are about 342.8m shares × SEK 0.7705 = SEK 264m ≈ DKK 175m, vs Nordnet's DKK 182m (about 4% difference, acceptable). Forward P/E 39.5 rests on very thin analyst coverage. Cash after the issue is an estimate (cash was about 0 at 30/6 with 7.2m of credit drawn; the issue raised 55m gross). Order book, incentive programmes and the price of the sale of ScaffSense (28/9) have not been reviewed.
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