Rankings Commodities & uranium Lahontan Gold

Lahontan Gold

Commodities & uranium · CanadaRank 513 of 829Prices 2 Nov 2026Model 1.4Penny

15070100

A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.

Biggest deductions

Margin−12
Valuation vs history and project−8
Dilution−7

Strengths

Net cash with no debt+2
Existing infrastructure and royalty-free consolidation+2

Speculative profile

A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.

All penny stocks

Asymmetry (1–10): 4
Price: 1.76 DKK
Market value: DKK 763m
Cash runway: 13 months
Cash / debt: 17.6 / 0.0m CAD
Dilution, 12 months: +56%

Bull case

The updated PEA shows an NPV markedly above US$200m at gold around US$3,200+ (the resource has grown 22%, and the infrastructure exists), permits come in 2027, and a mid-sized producer or a stream partner finances construction. A re-rating from about 0.5 × to 1 × NAV plus a higher gold price could give 2–3x; 5x+ requires an acquisition or a very high gold price.

Bear case

The gold price falls back, the PEA disappoints on the sulphide portion or capex rises, and construction must be financed with an issue of US$100m+ at a low price (the share count could double). From P/B 3.2 – a record high – the price could easily halve back toward C$0.15–0.20.

Catalysts

25 Nov 2026Q3 report (estimated date) – cash and burngradual stockanalysis.com
Q4 2026Completion of the Emergent Metals acquisition (court-approved plan of arrangement) and drilling results from West Santa Fe (rig mobilized 21/9-2026)gradual globenewswire.com
Not set ('soon to be completed' as of Aug. 2026)Updated PEA for Santa Fe with the new resource of 2.39 Moz AuEq and phase 2 sulphide processingbinary globenewswire.com
2027Mine Plan of Operation (BLM) and state permits; construction start targeted for 2027binary simplywall.st

Risk of going to zerolow - net cash, no debt, over a year of runway and a real resource of 2.4 Moz in Nevada. The risk is dilution and a halving, not zero.

Next financingCash of C$17.6m at 30/6-2026 vs approx. C$4.0m in quarterly spending (operations + drilling in the 2nd quarter) gives approx. 13 months. The next issue is likely in 2027 around the updated PEA/PFS; the big bill is the mine construction (PEA capex US$135m), which requires debt, a stream, a partner or an issue the size of the entire market cap.

Warrants & convertiblesAbout 17m warrants at C$0.60 expiring about April 2028 (from the C$0.41 issue, can be accelerated at C$1.00 for 10 days). Warrants from Nov 2025 were accelerated to expire 3/6-2026. Option plan and 1.47m DSUs; new options 21/9-2026 (number not stated). About 21m new shares to Emergent Metals (4.7% of the total company). No convertibles found.

Insiders, last 12 monthsNot systematically checked on SEDI. Insiders own c. 5.9% (stockanalysis); management received 1.47m DSUs in August and new options in September 2026.

Largest ownersNot examined in detail. Insiders c. 5.9%, institutions c. 10.5% (stockanalysis).

Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – approx. DKK 763m, no longer micro. (2) Hot theme: yes – gold at record levels. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – updated PEA and permits. (4) Major partner: no – no strategic investor or financing partner found. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 13 months, and construction is unfunded. (6) Price near the bottom: no – +171% in a year and record-high P/B.

Why this asymmetryOne of the better developer projects in the group (Nevada, infrastructure, net cash, 2.4 Moz), but the price has already risen 171% and is priced at about 0.5 × an outdated NAV. The upside requires a strong PEA plus financing without massive dilution; the downside is a halving if the gold price turns.

How the score is built

From 100 to 53, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

53Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 0.27 CAD
Median analyst target: –
Upside to median: –
Analysts: none
Target range: –
52-week change: +51%
P/E (trailing): n/a
Forward P/E: n/a
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−18 of −30

Margin
No revenue; operating result −C$4.1m and net result −C$4.0m TTM (counted only here, not again under ROIC). The loss is small for a developer, but rising: −US$1.04m in Q2 2026 vs −0.52m the year before.
stockanalysis.com
−12
Resource and studies
New NI 43-101 resource (Aug. 2026): 1.195 Moz AuEq indicated (47.5 Mt at 0.78 g/t) and 1.19 Moz inferred (60.6 Mt at 0.61 g/t) at US$3,200/oz. Low grade, half is inferred, and a large part of Santa Fe is sulfide, which requires a different process route. The only PEA (Dec. 2024: NPV5 US$200m, IRR 34%, capex US$135m) is outdated and does not cover the new resource.
globenewswire.com
−4
Capital allocation
Share-based pay about US$1.2m in the past four quarters (about 40% of the operating loss), 1.47m DSUs to management in August and new options in September 2026. The Emergent Metals acquisition is paid entirely in shares (about 4.7% of the combined company).
globenewswire.com
−2

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−8 of −35

Valuation vs history and project
P/B 3.16 – the highest in the company's history (0.2–0.44 in 2022–24, 2.48 at the end of 2025) after +171% in a year. EV approx. CAD 151m (approx. US$108m) equals approx. US$45 per oz AuEq and approx. 0.54 × NPV5 in the outdated PEA – fully priced for a PEA-stage developer, where 0.3–0.5 × NAV is normal.
stockanalysis.com
−8

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−19 of −35

Dilution
The share count has risen 55.9% over a year and 40–50% a year every year since 2021 (+13% in Q2 2026 alone). In addition there are about 17m warrants at C$0.60 from April 2026, new options and about 21m shares to Emergent Metals.
stockanalysis.com
−7
Financing of mine construction
The PEA's capex was US$135m – more than the entire market cap (about US$118m) – and the company is aiming for construction start in 2027. Without a partner, stream or loan, that requires a very large issue; the cash of C$17.6m only covers drilling and studies.
investingnews.com
−7
Permits and timeline
State mining permits and BLM's Mine Plan of Operations are not yet in place, and the updated PEA is still 'soon finished'. A construction start in 2027 is ambitious for a mine that must both be permitted and have funding.
globenewswire.com
−4
Management change
CFO change announced 10/9-2026 in the middle of the transition from exploration to development.
investingnews.com
−1

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15

Net cash with no debt
Cash of C$17.6m and no debt at 30/6-2026 after the issue of C$13.6m in March–April 2026; approx. 13–16 months of runway at current spending.
stockanalysis.com
+2
Existing infrastructure and royalty-free consolidation
Santa Fe is a former producing heap leach mine (new drilling in Heap Leach Pad Two gave 16.5 m at 2.72 g/t Au), and the Emergent acquisition gives 100% of West Santa Fe, removes two 1% royalties and saves about C$2.4m in option payments.
stocktitan.net
+2

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). Gold developer (Santa Fe, formerly producing heap leach mine in Nevada) with no revenue. Stockanalysis shows the financial figures in USD, the statistics in CAD; amounts in the penny object are converted to CAD. Latest figures at 30/6-2026. The published PEA is from December 2024 (US$2,705/oz) and does not cover the new resource from August 2026; the updated PEA has not been released. Market cap: 432.4m shares × C$0.38 = about C$164m (about DKK 763m, close to Nordnet's 777m) – before about 21m new shares for the Emergent Metals acquisition. Largest owners, SEDI insider trades and the full option programme have not been calculated systematically. Permitting status (BLM Plan of Operations, NEPA level) is known only from the company's own wording.