Rankings Semiconductors Marvell
Marvell
55
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−26
- Customer concentration−8
- Dilution−6
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Strategic partnerships and customer breadth+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 55, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 171.41 USD
- Median analyst target
- 325.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +89.6%
- Analysts
- 44
- Target range
- 175.00 – 450.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +83%
- P/E (trailing)
- 57.6
- Forward P/E
- 30.3
- PEG
- 0.54
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−15 of −30
- −4MarginGAAP operating margin 16.8% (TTM) and 16.7% in Q2 FY27; GAAP gross margin 52-53% (non-GAAP approx. 58%). The custom ASIC business pulls gross margin down as it grows. Broadcom and Nvidia earn 65-68% operating margins, and Marvell was loss-making on a GAAP basis in FY22-FY25.
- −3ROICROIC of 6.9% (TTM) against a stated cost of capital of 16.4%, and negative in FY22-FY25. The balance sheet is dominated by goodwill and intangibles from acquisitions (P/TBV 118).
- −4Earnings quality (GAAP vs. non-GAAP)Q2 FY27: GAAP EPS $0.33 versus non-GAAP $0.94 (GAAP is only 35% of the adjusted figure). The difference is amortization ($215m in the quarter), share-based compensation ($829m TTM, 8.8% of revenue, +40% in a year) and the Celestial earnout ($434m in 1H). TTM net income of $2.64bn includes a one-off gain of $1.83bn from the divestment of automotive ethernet. Receivables have risen $767m in a year.
- −2Capital allocationHas bought Celestial AI for 3.5bn $ (1bn cash, 24.6m shares plus an earnout of up to 24.4m shares) and XConn for 469m $, even though neither has material revenue yet (Celestial is not expected to contribute until 2H FY28). Buybacks of 2.4bn $ TTM exceed FCF (1.73bn $), yet the share count rose 2.6% anyway.
- −2Moat and pricing powerMarvell is number two behind Broadcom in custom AI chips and competes on price with Taiwanese design houses (Alchip, GUC). The big deals were bought with equity: Google gets warrants against purchases, and Nvidia received a discount via the preferred shares. This suggests weaker bargaining power towards the hyperscalers.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−26 of −35
- −26Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 48.8 versus 23.5-43.7 in FY22-FY26 (average about 32); EV/sales 25.7 versus 7.1-17.5 (average 11.6), i.e. about 50% above the previous peak; P/FCF 140 versus 35-86 and EV/EBITDA 85. Trailing GAAP P/E is 92, and over 200 without the divestment gain. Even on FY27 EPS ($4.22) P/E is 65. For comparison, Broadcom trades at forward P/E of about 20 and Nvidia at about 19, both with far higher margins, while AMD is at 57. The stock is +198% in a year.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−25 of −35
- −8Customer concentrationDistributor A accounted for 44% of revenue in Q2 FY27 (up from 34% a year earlier), and direct Customer A for 16%. The ten largest customers accounted for 82% in FY26, and four customers hold 72% of receivables. Data centre is 79% of revenue and depends on the AI capex of a few hyperscalers.
- −6DilutionGoogle has received warrants for up to 58.97m shares (6.7%) at 206.58 $, which vest one tranche per 500m $ of custom purchases through FY2033; at 275 $ they are already in the money. In addition come Nvidia's preferred shares (21.8m shares at 91.84 $, 2.5%) and the Celestial earnout (up to 24.4m shares, 2.8%). In total this is up to approx. 12% dilution, and the share count is already +3.1% in one quarter.
- −4Customers on the move / competitionAccording to market checks, Taiwan's Alchip is the main supplier on AWS' Trainium 3, while Marvell continues to supply Trainium 2/2.5. Microsoft is reportedly looking at Broadcom for Maia, and Broadcom dominates the custom market (Google TPU, OpenAI, Anthropic). The company has not specifically denied the loss.
- −3Back-loaded growth and executionThe Investor Day target of 70-90bn $ in revenue in FY2031 (from 8.2bn in FY26) requires five years of uninterrupted AI capex boom, which cannot be contracted today. Scale-up optics (Celestial) has almost no revenue yet, and the Google warrant only vests with purchases from Q3 FY27 through FY2033. The stock has swung between approx. 135 and 300 $ in 2026.
- −2Insider tradingOngoing sales in 2026 by CEO Matt Murphy (7,500 shares a month), COO Chris Koopmans (10,000 a month), the CFO, the general counsel and the head of data centres, in total about $25m. There are no insider purchases, and insiders own only 0.18%.
- −2Geopolitics and supply chain84% of sales were shipped to Asia in Q2 FY27 (up from 76%). Production is at TSMC in Taiwan, and the company depends on a few wafer and substrate suppliers.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Raised guidanceQ2 FY27 revenue was a record $2.74bn (+37%, data center +46%). Q3 is guided to $3.15bn (+52%) and non-GAAP EPS $1.10. At the Investor Day 6/10, the FY28 revenue target was raised to about $20bn from $18bn and the FY29 custom target to over $12bn from over $10bn.
- +2Strategic partnerships and customer breadthNvidia has invested $2bn and tied Marvell's custom XPUs and networking to NVLink Fusion and cooperation on silicon photonics. The expanded Google agreement covers TPU-related chips, and Marvell has over 35 'sockets' at the four largest US hyperscalers.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Data as of 11/10/2026 (price $275). GAAP figures are depressed by roughly $0.9bn of annual amortisation of acquired intangibles (Inphi, Cavium, Celestial), share-based compensation and the revaluation of the Celestial earn-out, while TTM earnings are lifted by a one-off gain of $1.83bn from the sale of automotive ethernet to Infineon. Nvidia's $2bn investment (31/3/2026) is confirmed: convertible preferred shares with a conversion price of about $91.84 (max. 21.8m shares, about 2.5%), not converted as of 1/8. The Google warrant (59m shares at $206.58) is probably booked as a discount on revenue when earned. Customer shares at AWS, Microsoft and Google are not disclosed directly (only 'Distributor A' and 'Customer A'). POET's cancelled Celestial order (April 2026) is a POET problem and gives no deduction here. The Trainium 3 loss to Alchip is market rumour, not confirmed by the company.
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