Rankings Commodities & uranium Mega Uranium
Mega Uranium
55
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Concentration−9
- Valuation vs history−7
Strengths
- Underlying asset approved+2
- Insider ownership+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.30 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 885m
- Cash runway
- 90 months
- Cash / debt
- 33.3 / 21.3m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +4%
Bull case
The uranium price and the NexGen share rise sharply as Rook I approaches production, and the holding discount (approx. 26%) narrows. If NexGen doubles and the discount disappears, the Mega share could approx. 2.5x; a 3–10x requires a uranium bubble like 2007.
Bear case
NexGen falls (budget overruns, new share issue, falling uranium price) – with gearing of C$21m, Mega falls more than NexGen. The share does not go to zero as long as the NexGen stake remains; realistic downside 50–70% in a uranium bear market.
Catalysts
- 18 Dec 2026Annual accounts for the financial year to 30/9-2026 (estimated date) – updated portfolio and debtgradual stockanalysis.com
- 2026–2028Construction of NexGen's Rook I (licence granted 5/3-2026, valid to 2036) – progress and financing drive the main assetgradual canada.ca
Risk of going to zerolow - the assets are liquid, listed shares (especially NexGen) worth more than the market cap; the risk is a price fall, not bankruptcy.
Next financingNo acute need: operating costs are approx. C$1.1m per quarter, and the company can sell listed shares (the NexGen holding alone approx. C$253m). Runway = 33.3 / (1.1/3) ≈ 90 months, but 'cash' may include share holdings and is set against C$21.3m of debt.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found. The share count rose 3.8% in a year and 5.5% in a quarter (options/issuances; details not examined). Mega itself owns warrants in Atha Energy (2.86m) and Premier American Uranium (0.77m).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked). Insiders own c. 12.5%.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail. Insiders c. 12.5%, institutions c. 18% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – approx. DKK 885m. (2) Hot theme: yes – uranium. (3) Upcoming milestones: no – none of its own; only NexGen's construction. (4) Major partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – low costs and liquid equity holdings. (6) Price near the bottom: no – +18% in a year.
Why this asymmetryLow zero-risk and a persistent discount to intrinsic value, but it is in practice a leveraged NexGen position with holding costs; there is no catalyst of its own that can give a Circio-like multiple.
How the score is built
From 100 to 55, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.45 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −1%
- P/E (trailing)
- 28.2
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−20 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue; operating costs of C$4.4m a year and operating result −C$4.4m TTM. The net profit (C$6.0m) is solely gains on equity holdings (C$12.7m realised gain), and operating cash flow is −C$1.6m.
- −6Moat and future segmentNo business or projects of its own of significance: the portfolio consists for by far the largest part of NexGen shares (c. C$253m of a market cap of C$191m), which any investor can buy directly without holding-company costs.
- −4Capital allocationThe stock has traded at about 0.65–0.74 times book value for at least five years, but the company does not buy back its own shares; instead the share count has risen 3.8% over a year (5.5% in a quarter) via issues below intrinsic value.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−7 of −35
- −7Valuation vs historyP/B 0.74 is at the top of its own history (0.65–0.73 in 2021–25), so the holding discount is not larger than normal. The discount is persistent and is not being realised, and the underlying NexGen stock is priced high with no production until Rook I is complete.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35
- −9ConcentrationWell over 80% of the portfolio is one stock, NexGen, whose Rook I project has had its construction budget raised to about C$2.2bn (feasibility study: C$1.3bn). Delays or new issues at NexGen hit directly.
- −3LeverageDebt of C$21.3m (from 1.2m in 2022) and negative interest cover (−4.0); part of the portfolio is thus debt-financed without ongoing income to pay the interest.
- −2Uranium price and sentimentBeta 1.5 vs the market; the price fell 6.6% on 30/9 and is below the 50- and 200-day averages (C$0.58 and 0.61), RSI 34. The value follows uranium sector share prices directly.
- −1DilutionThe share count rose 3.8% over a year (384.9m shares) – low for a penny company, but issued below intrinsic value.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Underlying asset approvedNexGen received the CNSC licence on 5/3-2026 to prepare and build Rook I (valid to 2036) – the biggest regulatory risk for the main asset has been removed.
- +1
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). Mega Uranium is effectively an investment company: no revenue and one employee according to stockanalysis; earnings are gains/losses on equity holdings. Portfolio as of 30/6-2026: 19.48m NexGen shares (approx. 253m C$ at 12.97 C$), 1.58m IsoEnergy shares (approx. 20m C$, after IsoEnergy's takeover of Toro Energy in June 2026) and small holdings in Atha Energy and Premier American Uranium with warrants. NAV has not been published; P/B (0.74) is used as an approximate P/NAV. Stockanalysis shows 21.3m C$ of debt and negative interest coverage; the terms (e.g. loans secured on shares or deferred tax) have not been examined. 'Cash' in the penny object is stockanalysis' 'cash & investments' and may include listed shares. No analyst coverage (the forecast page gives 404). Nordnet's market cap (727m DKK) is outdated; at 384.9m shares × 0.495 C$ it is approx. 885m DKK. Industry: closest is 'Commodities & uranium', although the company is a holding structure.
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