Rankings Transport & logistics Norfolk Southern
Norfolk Southern
53
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−8
- FCF yield−5
- Merger risk−5
Strengths
- Record revenue+1
- Moat+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 53, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 345.68 USD
- Median analyst target
- 359.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +3.9%
- Analysts
- 21
- Target range
- 297.00 – 400.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +22%
- P/E (trailing)
- 29.0
- Forward P/E
- 24.4
- PEG
- 3.76
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−10 of −30
- −4MarginOperating margin 33.9% (TTM) vs 37.7-40.8% in 2021-2022; adjusted operating ratio in Q2 2026 was 65.5%, 210 bp worse than a year earlier, and reported 67.6%. Still behind the best North American railroads.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue has only gone from USD 11.1bn to 12.2bn from 2021 to 2025 and has stood still since 2022; record Q2 revenue (+11%) is partly fuel surcharge, which also cost 110 bp on the operating ratio. EPS TTM fell 21%.
- −3Return on capitalROIC 10.4% (TTM) vs 12.8-13.6% in 2021-2022 and only just above a WACC of 9.8%.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−13 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 24.1 vs 17.5-23.0 in 2021-2025 (above the range), EV/EBITDA 15.8 vs 11.8-14.9 and EV/revenue 7.1 vs 5.7-7.7. The merger premium is already in the price.
- −5FCF yieldFCF of USD 1.63bn (TTM) gives an FCF yield of only 2.2% and P/FCF 45 vs 26 in 2021-2022; the dividend (USD 1.2bn) eats about 3/4 of FCF.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−9 of −35
- −5Merger riskThe STB rejected the first application as incomplete in January 2026; the revised one was accepted in May, but the schedule from 18 Aug gives final filings on 28 May 2027 and a decision no earlier than the second half of 2027. If the merger is rejected, the stock loses its takeover premium.
- −2Merger costs and focusMerger costs, restructuring and East Palestine items subtract 2.1 percentage points from the reported operating ratio in Q2; management is spending two years on a process with political opposition.
- −2DebtNet debt USD 16.1bn (2.8x EBITDA) and current ratio 0.83; buybacks have largely stopped (USD 87m TTM).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Record revenueRecord revenue of USD 3.5bn in Q2 2026 (+11%), and expectations were beaten on better demand across the main markets.
- +1MoatOne of only two Class I rail networks in the eastern US; the revised merger application has been accepted, and the STB has rejected demands to dismiss the case summarily.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Q3 2026 is reported on 22 Oct; TTM figures run to 30 Jun 2026. The stock trades as a merger target: Union Pacific has agreed to buy NS for shares and cash, so the price largely follows the UP stock and the probability of STB approval (final decision no earlier than H2 2027). Analysts' price targets reflect the merger terms. East Palestine compensation, the unions' position and insider trading have not been investigated in detail. 13F purchases give no points.
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