Rankings Tech hardware & optics POET Technologies
POET Technologies
36
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Peers−10
- Capital allocation and dilution−7
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Order book+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 36, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 4.79 USD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −26%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue USD 1.7m over the last 12 months vs an operating loss of 61.9m; operating margin -3,611% and FCF -40.6m. No documented path to profit.
- −7Capital allocation and dilutionShare count +75.7% over a year; USD 817m raised in shares (TTM), and share-based pay has tripled to USD 3.8m per quarter.
- −5Quality of growthQ2 revenue only 0.57m USD despite 'sixth consecutive quarter of growth'; no numerical guidance, and production units are still in qualification.
- −5MoatThe optical interposer is unproven at volume and competes with established optics makers such as Coherent (revenue USD 7.1bn) and Lumentum (3.0bn) as well as co-packaged optics from the big chipmakers.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−13 of −35
- −10PeersEV of USD 0.56bn and market cap 1.35bn for 1.7m in revenue: EV/Sales 327 vs Lumentum 32 and Coherent 9.5. The price is a pure option on a production ramp in 2027.
- −3Multiples vs own historyP/S 787 is unchanged from 2025 (776); P/B has fallen to 1.6 because the cash pile was inflated by share issues, not because the business has become cheaper.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−22 of −35
- −6Customer lossMarvell (Celestial AI) cancelled all orders on 23 April 2026, citing that POET had breached confidentiality on order and shipment information; the share fell approx. 47% in one day.
- −5Litigation and PFIC taxClass action for the period 1–27 April 2026 over misleading statements, including that POET is probably a PFIC (unfavourable tax for US owners) and that the CFO breached an NDA.
- −3Short reportsWolfpack Research (14 April 2026) called POET a 'stock promote', and Night Market Research accuses the company of exaggerating partnerships and commercialisation pace; short interest 13%.
- −3Warrant overhang19.05m warrants at USD 26.15 (to 2029) from the May issue and a Lumilens warrant for up to 22.9m shares at USD 8.25 (close to the price) = up to 24% more shares.
- −3ExecutionThe Lumilens order first requires engineering samples at the end of 2026 and hyperscaler qualification before a ramp in 2027; revenue depends on development, qualification and scaling of production.
- −2GovernanceInsiders own only 0.4%, and CFO Thomas Mika is accused in the lawsuit of breaching an NDA by publicly discussing confidential agreements; the same type of breach triggered the Marvell cancellation.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Net cashNet cash USD 789m (58% of the market cap) vs annual burn of approx. 40m; no financing risk for many years.
- +1Order bookFirst order from Lumilens of 50 m USD (about 29 times TTM revenue) with the option for over 500 m over five years, though bought with a significant warrant.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Pre-commercial: revenue is sample and qualification units, so multiples are almost meaningless. No analyst coverage on stockanalysis (forecast 404), so formula points for upside and revisions are thin. The net loss includes non-cash warrant items; operating cash flow (−35 m USD) is the best measure of burn. Also listed on TSX Venture. Industry set to the nearest: Tech hardware & optics. Price 7.79 USD, market cap 1.35 bn USD (2 Oct 2026)
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