Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Rheinmetall
Rheinmetall
56
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−16
- Cash flow and debt−8
- Execution and delivery−5
Strengths
- Insider buying+3
- Order book+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 56, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 991.10 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 1,500 EUR
- Upside to median
- +51.3%
- Analysts
- 21
- Target range
- 1,020 – 2,380 EUR
- 52-week change
- −42%
- P/E (trailing)
- 64.1
- Forward P/E
- 22.2
- PEG
- 0.52
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−8 of −30
- −4Future segmentLost tenders for loitering munitions (about €600m) to the new drone companies Helsing and Stark, and the FV-014 is delayed. Growth lies in classic ammunition and vehicles, while new players win the drone technology that is growing.
- −2Capital allocationThe dividend was raised 42% to €11.50, even though the FCF payout is 137% and debt is rising (debt-funded net debt +€1.13bn TTM). On top came acquisitions of €1.09bn TTM, mainly the NVL shipyard. The F126 loss is counted under Cracks.
- −2Quality of earningsThe operating margin rose from 11.1% (2021) to 16.9%, but the net margin is only 6.3%, and EPS fell 14.5% TTM despite +49% revenue. ROIC fell from 23.1% (2025) to 18.7%, and the gross margin is expected to fall from 52.4% to 44.7% in 2026 (mix).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−16 of −35
- −16Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 21.3 (26 on 2026 EPS, 18 on 2027) vs 9.4–21.9 in 2021–24 and 38.6 in 2025; EV/EBITDA 20.1 vs 5.0–18.1 in 2021–24; P/B 7.8; P/FCF 115. Roughly in line with European defence peers, but still above its own pre-2025 history and without cash flow behind it.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−29 of −35
- −8Cash flow and debtOperating FCF was −€1.6bn in H1 2026 (inventory build-up, delayed prepayments), and the group signals clearly negative FCF for 2026. FCF TTM is €391m (3.4% margin). Net cash of €0.41bn (2025) has turned into net debt of €2.72bn.
- −4Guidance (FY26)Sales guidance for 2026 has been cut from €14.0–14.5bn to 13.7–14.2bn after the government cancelled the F126 frigate programme in June 2026 (up to −€300m in Naval Systems).
- −5Execution and deliveryThe Bundeswehr and the procurement office have pointed to delays on Skyranger 30 and the heavy weapon-carrier vehicle and quality problems with armour plates. The Boxer order Arminius (€12.4bn) has been pushed to year-end. The stock fell 10% in a week (4/9).
- −5Customers are shiftingGermany's draft 2027 budget cuts ammunition from €11bn to 9.6bn, and there are reports of warship plans being scrapped.
- −3Customer concentrationThe German state is clearly the largest customer and decides orders, timing and prepayments; the share is not disclosed.
- −4MacroThe case rests on the war in Ukraine and NATO rearmament. A ceasefire or budget pressure would hit ammunition volumes and the multiple.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Insider buyingCEO Armin Papperger bought 3,188 shares for about €3.04m at €954.62 on 25/6/2026 via his holding company, right after the F126 shock, and also bought earlier in 2026. No insider selling found.
- +2Order bookThe backlog has grown to €80.5bn (30/6/2026) from €56.0bn a year earlier, about 7 times annual revenue; over €100bn is expected by year-end. The operating margin target of about 19% is maintained.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The share has halved (−51% over 52 weeks, from €2,007 to about €966), so the P/E of around 100 from 25/9 is outdated: the forward P/E is now 21–26. 2026 sales guidance has been cut to €13.7–14.2bn after F126, and there are delivery delays (Skyranger, heavy weapon carrier vehicle). Cash flow is negative in 2026, and there is net debt of €2.7bn. Boxer/Arminius (€12.4bn) is only expected to be approved in the Bundestag on 9/12.
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