Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab
21
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−32
- Cash flow and dilution−8
- Margin−7
Strengths
- Order book+2
- Net cash+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 21, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 52.07 USD
- Median analyst target
- 102.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +96.9%
- Analysts
- 22
- Target range
- 64.00 – 150.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −17%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 3,697.8
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−17 of −30
- −7MarginOperating margin −27.6% TTM (−38.0% in 2025, −43.5% in 2024) and gross margin 37.3%. The trend is better, but Q3 guidance lowers the GAAP gross margin to 29–31% and adjusted EBITDA to −$17 to −23m. The loss is counted here and not again under ROIC (−5.5%).
- −5Future segmentNeutron (13 t) has to compete with a reused Falcon 9 (17.5 t), which has a lower price per kg and hundreds of flights behind it. Electron and the space systems ($544m TTM) carry the business today.
- −5Capital allocationIridium is being bought for an EV of about $8bn ($54 per share, half cash and half shares) before Neutron is operational. The cash part is funded with $1.94bn from a share issue and $1.775bn of term loans guaranteed by Rocket Lab, so net cash turns into net debt at closing. On top came Mynaric and Motiv in Q2.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−32 of −35
- −32Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 56 and EV/sales 53 TTM vs its own range of 8.5–88.6 and 6.7–77.9 in 2021–25 (median about 29), i.e. almost double the median. Forward P/S 37 and P/B 12.4. Iridium itself is bought at about 9 times revenue. There are no earnings to measure.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−25 of −35
- −8Cash flow and dilutionFCF −$371m TTM, worse than −$322m in 2025 and −$116m in 2024; working capital tied up $182m. The share count is +15.7% in a year (+4% in the quarter), 29.3m new shares were sold via ATM, and the share part of the Iridium deal dilutes further.
- −6Execution (Neutron)Neutron is due at the launch pad in Q4 2026, but the window for a launch this year is 'narrowing', and the integrated static fire is the riskiest step. Delays cost about $15m per quarter.
- −5Customer concentrationA significant part of revenue from the US government comes from one contract (the SDA satellites), and new large orders (SB-AMTI $397m) are also government.
- −6Insider tradingCEO Peter Beck's trust sold 3.28m shares for $286.4m on 6–8 July (10b5-1 plan from 27/3). The CFO, COO, general counsel, the US president and two board members also sold: about $390m in total in 2026, including the CFO's $8.8m on 2/9. No purchases.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Order bookRecord backlog of $2.36bn (+137% y/y) and over $1bn of new contracts signed in Q3 (incl. options), including $397m from the Space Force; the launch backlog is 90+ launches.
- +1Net cashNet cash $2.25bn at 30/6, but it was created through dilution and is earmarked for the cash part of Iridium.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Losses: operating margin −27.6% and FCF −$371m TTM. The Iridium acquisition (EV about $8bn) was approved by Iridium's shareholders on 24/9 but still needs regulatory approvals and is expected to close in mid-2027; net cash then turns into net debt. Neutron's maiden flight (target Q4 2026) is not assured. The share has halved from the May peak ($149 → $72). 20 analysts, price targets last updated 18/9.
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