Rankings Oil & gas ShaMaran Petroleum
ShaMaran Petroleum
53
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Geopolitics and shutdown−12
- Multiples vs peers−6
- Payments and export agreements−6
Strengths
- Debt reduction+2
- Stable payments since the restart+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 0.99 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 2,886m
- Cash runway
- 9 months
- Cash / debt
- 246.0 / 1,424.0m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +1%
Bull case
The war subsides, Atrush restarts at over 40,000 bopd gross, and Sarsang is repaired. Analysts expect revenue could rise to about US$252m in 2027 (+134%). With an EBITDA margin of about 65% that gives about US$160m; at EV/EBITDA of 4 and net debt of about US$120m, equity is about US$520m vs a market cap of just over 400m (about 1.3x). A 3x also requires an oil price above US$90, payment of receivables and a dividend.
Bear case
The shutdown lasts into 2027, the export agreements expire without replacement, and KRG is withholding payments. The company is then running with negative cash flow and bond debt of US$143.8m, and the share could fall 50–70% as during the export stop in 2023.
Catalysts
- 30 Sep 2026Expiry of the interim export agreements between the KRG, Iraq's government and the companies: extension or a new agreement is decisive for paymentsbinary shamaranpetroleum.com
- 9 Nov 2026Q3 2026 results: status of shutdown/restart of Atrush and Sarsang, cash and PSC paymentsgradual stockanalysis.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – strong balance sheet (current ratio 5.5) and large receivables, but no production since 20/7-2026 and bond debt of US$143.8m.
Next financingThere is no acute issue. During the shutdown cash falls (US$29.0m → 24.8m from 30/6 to 5/8-2026, an estimate of about US$8m per quarter incl. interest), but receivables of about US$77m and a restart will fill the cash up again. If the shutdown lasts into 2027, the bond loan of US$143.8m could require a waiver or refinancing.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles found. Share-based compensation (options/RSUs) and the retail offering of 8,999,999 shares (approx. US$1.1m) in June 2026 in connection with the Oslo listing.
Insiders, last 12 monthsnone found (not systematically examined)
Largest ownersThe company is part of the Lundin Group, and the Lundin family is historically the largest owner (stake not verified in this analysis). stockanalysis shows only about 1.2% insiders and 1.8% institutions, which looks incomplete.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: no – approx. DKK 2.9bn. (2) Hot theme: no – Kurdish oil. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – restart and the export agreement could move the price, but they are not new data. (4) Major partner: partial – part of the Lundin group. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – no revenue during the shutdown and bond debt. (6) Price near the bottom: no – RSI approx. 72 and the price above the 50-day average.
Why this asymmetryEarnings at normal operation are high relative to market cap, so a restart could give 30–60% (analyst target prices are NOK 1.50–2.02). But the company is too large and too dependent on geopolitics and Baghdad–Erbil agreements to become a 5–10-bagger, and a prolonged shutdown could halve the share.
How the score is built
From 100 to 53, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.69 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 1.69 NOK
- Upside to median
- +0.0%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 1.44 – 1.93 NOK
- 52-week change
- –
- P/E (trailing)
- 9.8
- Forward P/E
- 9.1
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−11 of −30
- −2Margin and ROICStrong field margins: gross margin 76%, operating margin 45% and ROIC 17% TTM. But FCF was about 0 TTM (−US$0.2m), because receivables rose by US$56m and capex rose to US$34m.
- −4Quality of growthMature fields without organic growth. Revenue fluctuates with export stops: US$177m in 2022, 83 in 2023, 155 in 2025 and expected approx. 108 in 2026 (−30%). Sarsang requires damage assessment and spare parts with long lead times before production is fully restored.
- −4Moat and controlNon-operating minority owner (50% of Atrush and 18% of Sarsang) with HKN as operator. No control of its own over production, investments or restart, and the company is a price taker.
- −1Capital allocationDebt has been brought down, but the share count has risen from 2,209m (2021) to 2,888m. The issue in connection with the Atrush acquisition in 2022 and the retail offering of 9m shares in June 2026 diluted.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −6Multiples vs peersTrailing P/E 8.4 and adjusted EV/EBITDA approx. 5.6 (market cap approx. NOK 4.2bn + net debt approx. NOK 1.0bn vs EBITDA NOK 0.94bn). Forward P/E for 2026 is approx. 14 on shutdown-hit earnings. Kurdistan peers such as DNO and Gulf Keystone typically trade at 2–4x EBITDA.
- −2FCF pricingFCF is negative TTM (EV/FCF n/a), and analysts expect only about US$28.5m in FCF in 2026 vs 63m in 2025, i.e. an FCF yield of about 7% at a market cap of just over US$400m.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−26 of −35
- −12Geopolitics and shutdownAtrush and Sarsang were shut down from March to June 2026 because of the Iran war and were shut again 20/7-2026, with no certainty about the duration. Revenue in Q2 fell 50% to US$17.8m, and adjusted EBITDAX halved to US$11.9m.
- −6Payments and export agreementsExports via the Iraq–Turkey pipeline rest on temporary agreements between the KRG, the Iraqi government and the companies, which have only been extended to 30/9-2026. Receivables rose from US$22m to 77m from June 2025 to June 2026, and the full PSC payment after the vote has not yet been received.
- −5Debt during shutdownBond debt of US$143.8m and net debt that rose from 114.8 to 119.0m US$ (30/6-5/8-2026), while cash fell from 29.0 to 24.8m US$ with no production.
- −3Asset damage and operator dependenceSarsang's full recovery depends on a damage assessment and spare parts with long lead times, and the restart is controlled by the operator HKN alone.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Debt reductionTotal debt has been reduced from US$305m (2021) and 255m (2023) to US$132m, and the current ratio is 5.5.
- +1Stable payments since the restartPayments have arrived about 30 days after lifting via SOMO without delays since exports restarted 27/9-2025. The independent PSC reconciliation is complete, and the companies now expect full PSC payment.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Nordics). The company moved to Bermuda and switched its primary listing from TSXV to Euronext Growth Oslo in May–June 2026, so the TSXV page is dead (last trade 26/5-2026). The path is therefore osl/SNM (NOK 1.45 at 1/10-2026), while the Nordnet line is SNM SDB on First North Stockholm (SEK 1.502 = DKK 0.99). Stockanalysis' share count (2.34bn) and market cap (NOK 3.40bn) are too low: the accounts show 2,888m shares, and 2,888m × DKK 0.99 ≈ DKK 2,859m matches Nordnet's DKK 2,886m. Corrected EV/EBITDA is about 5.6 (not 4.7). Reporting currency is USD; penny amounts are converted at US$1 ≈ NOK 9.9. Status of the shutdown after 5/8-2026 is not confirmed, and the bond's coupon and maturity have not been found. Only 2 analysts cover the stock.
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