Rankings Utilities & power SunPower

SunPower

Utilities & power · United StatesRank 647 of 829Prices 2 Nov 2026Model 1.4Penny

15070100

The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.

Biggest deductions

Capital allocation−8
Going concern and liquidity−8
Margin−7

Strengths

Strong backers+2

Speculative profile

A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.

All penny stocks

Asymmetry (1–10): 2
Price: 2.02 DKK
Market value: DKK 422m
Cash runway: 3 months
Cash / debt: 30.0 / 138.0m USD
Dilution, 12 months: +105%

Bull case

Q3 delivers over 75m USD in revenue, the savings of 13m per quarter hold, and the company reaches break-even. Management talks about 500m in revenue with a profit; at P/S 0.5 on 400m the market cap becomes 200m USD vs approx. 90m pro forma = 2–3x. Rodgers himself talks about '4x to 11x'.

Bear case

Q3 disappoints again, cash (approx. 30m) is burned in 1–2 quarters, and the debt of 138m stands ahead of shareholders. New emergency financing at a lower price, interest paid in shares and a reverse split; in the worst case restructuring or delisting to OTC. The stock could go to zero.

Catalysts

2026-10-20 (estimated)Q3 report: must show revenue above 75m USD and approx. 90% lower non-GAAP operating lossbinary finance.yahoo.com
2 Nov 2026General meeting (virtual); possible proposals on reverse split and boardgradual sec.gov
19 Jan 2027Nasdaq deadline to reach USD 1; otherwise application for 180 more days in exchange for a reverse splitbinary sec.gov

Risk of going to zerohigh – going concern qualification, cash of USD 4m before the September round, debt of about 1.5–2 times market cap and a burn of about 26m per quarter

Next financingCash of USD 4.0m at Q2 + 26.2m from the September round = approx. 30m. At the H1 spending rate (approx. 26m per quarter) that lasts approx. 3 months. Management guides to cost savings of 13m per quarter and 90% lower operating loss in Q3, and the plan shows a minimum of 15m in cash in Q1 2027. If the plan fails, Rodgers or new investors must step in again, with more dilution as a result. Going concern qualification.

Warrants & convertiblesConvertible senior notes (12%, 10% and 7%, maturity 2029; the 10% loan is secured). Up to 36.3m conversion shares and 18.8m exchange shares are registered for resale (424B3, September 2026). Interest for July 2026-January 2027 (USD 10.7m) has been swapped for 19.3m shares. Capital raise 3/9-2026: USD 26.2m at about USD 0.30 (about 87m shares). No ATM found. Share count of 296m is an estimate: 209m + about 87m.

Insiders, last 12 monthsT.J. Rodgers has previously funded the company via convertible loans (about USD 150m in total); Form 4 purchases in the last 12 months have not been reviewed. Board member Jamie Haenggi is not standing for re-election (17/9-2026).

Largest ownersNot examined in detail; insiders (primarily T.J. Rodgers) c. 22%, institutions c. 22%; Foris Ventures came in in September 2026.

Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 65m (approx. 90m pro forma). (2) Hot theme: no – residential solar is unpopular after the ITC expiry. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – the Q3 report in October is a genuine test. (4) Major partner: partial – T.J. Rodgers and John Doerr's Foris Ventures as investors, no industrial partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 3 months of runway at current spending. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −83% in a year.

Why this asymmetryP/S of 0.2 and well-known investors give real upside if the Q3 turnaround succeeds, but debt larger than the market cap, going concern and ongoing share issuance mean shareholders are last in line.

How the score is built

From 100 to 43, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

43Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 0.23 USD
Median analyst target: 1.45 USD
Upside to median: +539.3%
Analysts: 2
Target range: 1.40 – 1.50 USD
52-week change: −87%
P/E (trailing): n/a
Forward P/E: 11.3
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−24 of −30

Margin
The gross margin is decent (52% TTM), but the operating margin is −20% TTM and −43% in Q2 2026. Operating cash flow was −USD 26.5m and −25.7m in Q2 and Q1. The positive net income comes from derivative gains, not operations.
stockanalysis.com
−7
Quality of growth
Revenue fell 17% to USD 54.9m in Q2 2026 and 7% in Q1. Growth in 2025 (+176%) was bought via acquisitions, not organic; Q3 guidance (over 75m) presupposes that the delayed projects come through.
investing.com
−6
Moat
Installer and dealer of residential solar panels with a brand bought out of bankruptcy; low barriers to entry and competition from thousands of local installers.
finance.yahoo.com
−3
Capital allocation
The share count rose 45% over a year, interest on convertible loans (7–12%) is paid with 19.3m new shares, USD 26.2m has been raised at about USD 0.30 in September, and accumulated deficit is USD 451m with negative equity.
sec.gov
−8

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35

Multiples vs own history and peers
P/S 0.23 looks cheap, but EV/revenue is 0.70 due to debt of USD 138m, equity is negative, and there is no positive operating FCF. The low multiple prices the going concern risk; the stock is not cheap measured on EV.
stockanalysis.com
−5

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−30 of −35

Going concern and liquidity
10-Q contains 'substantial doubt' about going concern. Cash was only USD 4.0m at the end of Q2 (below management's own minimum of 10m) vs quarterly spending of approx. 26m.
sec.gov
−8
Debt
Convertible senior notes with 7-12% interest and maturity 2029 plus short-term debt of USD 38m; total debt of 138m vs a market cap of about 65-90m. Interest is partly paid in shares.
sec.gov
−5
Regulation (ITC)
The lapse of the federal Investment Tax Credit for residential solar hits demand and prices; CEO Rodgers himself cites it as the main cause of the crisis.
sec.gov
−6
Execution and reporting
About 1,105 solar projects in SunPower Direct were not submitted for financing in Q2 due to inadequate documentation and missing permits, and the company had to file an NT 10-Q (delayed quarterly report) in August.
sec.gov
−4
Listing risk
Nasdaq notice 21/7-2026: deadline to 19/1-2027 to reach USD 1; then possibly 180 more days in exchange for a reverse split. At USD 0.31 at least approx. 1:4 is required. Delisting to OTC makes the share untradeable on Nordnet.
sec.gov
−5
Price risk and short interest
The price has fallen 83% over 52 weeks, Altman Z-score -1.9, and 20% of the free float is sold short.
stockanalysis.com
−2

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15

Strong backers
Chairman/CEO T.J. Rodgers has financed the company with convertible loans of about USD 150m, insiders own about 22%, and the capital raise in September was led by Foris Ventures (John Doerr's family office).
sec.gov
+2

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

The 'new' SunPower (formerly Complete Solaria, CEO T.J. Rodgers), which bought the name and assets out of the old SunPower's bankruptcy in 2024; not the original company. Net income in 2026 is positive due to accounting gains on derivatives/convertibles, not operations. Share count and market cap (stockanalysis and Nordnet about 209m shares) are before the USD 26.2m capital raise in September (about 87m new shares at USD 0.30). Conversion prices on the convertible loans and the exact cash position after September not reviewed. Industry set to Utilities & power as the nearest fit (residential solar: sales, installation and financing).