Rankings Commodities & uranium Southern Silver
Southern Silver
43
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Valuation vs history−13
- Margin−10
- Funding−8
Strengths
- Resource growth+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.37 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 994m
- Cash runway
- 4 months
- Cash / debt
- 7.8 / 0.0m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +26%
Bull case
The updated PEA at $60–80/oz silver shows an NPV of over US$1bn, and a major producer (e.g. a mid-sized silver producer) buys the project or comes in as a partner. At 0.5x NPV that equates to a value of C$650–700m – about 3x today's market cap.
Bear case
The silver price falls, permits drag on in Mexico, and the company must continue with small issues every six months. Without a partner, capex of US$388m cannot be financed, and the stock trades back towards P/B 1.5–2 (about CAD 0.20–0.25), i.e. half of the price.
Catalysts
- Q4 2026Updated resource estimate with Puro Corazon (planned for Q3 2026)gradual mexicominingcenter.com
- Ongoing 2026Drill results from Cerro Las Minitas and Puro Corazon (latest 35.0 m at 399 g/t AgEq 21/9-2026)gradual juniorminingnetwork.com
- H1 2027Updated PEA for the combined Cerro Las Minitas project – with higher metal prices NPV could rise markedly from US$501mbinary mexicominingcenter.com
Risk of going to zerolow-medium - the project has a large resource and a PEA, so zero is unlikely, but cash is small, and shareholders pay for every step through dilution.
Next financingPro forma cash approx. 7.8m C$ (5.6m at 31/5 + 2.2m from the first tranche in June). With an average burn of approx. 5.6m C$ per quarter (incl. Puro Corazon payments; approx. 2–3.5m without) cash lasts only 4–8 months. A new issue is likely in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, presumably after the updated resource. Construction (388m US$) requires a partner or project financing.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles or debt found. Warrants and options not quantified; the June issue (up to 7.27m shares at C$0.55) was without warrants according to the announcement. New SEC registration 27/8-2026 can be used for new issuances.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined; no insider trades found in the searches. Insiders own c. 1.9% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined. Institutions own only c. 1.8% according to stockanalysis; free float c. 339m shares.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – C$214m (approx. DKK 1bn). (2) Hot theme: yes – silver. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – new resource and updated PEA. (4) Major partner: no – no strategic partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – cash lasts under a year. (6) Price near the bottom: no – +19% in a year and tripled market cap.
Why this asymmetryA large, royalty-free polymetallic resource with a PEA that looks much better at today's silver price, and an updated PEA as a clear catalyst. But the small cash pile, the large capex and the Mexico permits mean the value is likely only realised via a takeover or a large dilution.
How the score is built
From 100 to 43, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.35 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −4%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−21 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue; operating loss −C$11.3m and net loss −C$11.9m TTM (ROE −23%, counted only here).
- −7Project quality and studiesOnly a PEA (2024): after-tax NPV5 US$501m and IRR 21% at $23/oz silver, but initial capex of US$388m and a 17-year life. About 2/3 of the silver resource is inferred (83 of 127m oz), and zinc accounts for about 35% of revenue - a polymetallic project, not a pure silver mine. No PFS.
- −4Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 292m (2023) to 420m through a series of small issues (including C$6m in December 2025 and up to C$4m at C$0.55 in June 2026).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−13 of −35
- −13Valuation vs historyP/B 3.95 vs 1.6–2.1 in 2022–25, and the market value has tripled from CAD 68m to 214m in a year. EV (approx. CAD 209m ≈ US$150m) equals approx. 0.3x PEA NPV at $23/oz – low vs NAV at today's silver price, but typical for a PEA-stage project in Mexico without financing.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−19 of −35
- −8FundingInitial capex of US$388m (approx. C$530m) is 2.5x market cap; cash was only C$5.6m at 31/5-2026 with an average FCF of approx. −C$5.6m per quarter. The company lives on small issues every six months, and construction requires a large partner or massive dilution.
- −4DilutionThe share count has risen 25.7% over a year; new issues in December 2025 (bought deal, C$6m) and June 2026 (C$0.55), and the company filed a new registration with the SEC on 27/8-2026.
- −5Jurisdiction and permitsA new mining project in Durango, Mexico, must obtain environmental permits under the tightened mining law from 2023; a construction decision is several years away, and the permitting process is uncertain.
- −2Metal pricesThe value rests on silver, zinc and lead prices; approx. 55% of PEA revenue comes from something other than silver and gold.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Resource growthStrong drilling results in 2026, incl. 35.0 m at 399 g/t AgEq (21/9-2026), and acquisition of the adjacent Puro Corazon mine paid in cash over 40 months without issuing shares.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Canada). Pure exploration/development with no revenue. The latest financial statements on stockanalysis are for the quarter to about 31/5-2026 ('Q1 2027'); cash (C$5.6m) is from before the June issue at C$0.55. Capex of C$12.4m in the previous quarter is not explained (probably payments for Puro Corazon or capitalised drilling – not verified). The 2024 PEA uses $23/oz silver; the updated resource and PEA with Puro Corazon have not yet been published. The content of the SEC filing from 27/8-2026 has not been investigated. Insider trades and largest owners have not been investigated. No analyst coverage on stockanalysis.
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