Rankings Tech hardware & optics Super Micro Computer
Super Micro Computer
66
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Cash flow−10
- Customer concentration−10
- Governance and lawsuits−10
Strengths
- Skin in the game+2
- Estimates+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 66, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 30.44 USD
- Median analyst target
- 45.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +47.8%
- Analysts
- 18
- Target range
- 15.00 – 60.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −41%
- P/E (trailing)
- 9.3
- Forward P/E
- 6.4
- PEG
- 0.28
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−14 of −30
- −6MarginThe gross margin has fallen from 18.0% (FY23) to 13.8%, 11.1% and 10.8% (FY26). Q4 delivered 17.5% thanks to a richer customer mix, but the full year was below FY25.
- −5ROICROIC has fallen from 36.3% (FY23) to 29.6%, 18.0% and 19.8% in FY26 and 14.0% on a current basis, because inventory and receivables tie up ever more capital.
- −3MoatServers are a competitive, low-margin market (Dell, HPE and ODMs). Q1 FY27 guidance (revenue $14.5–15.5bn, GAAP EPS $0.89–0.98) implies a net margin of about 4.5% vs 10.6% in Q4.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 9.6 vs 7.0–25.4 in FY22–26; EV/EBITDA 10.3 vs 6.6–38.5; P/S 0.70 vs 0.40–3.20; P/B 2.7. Low vs its history and vs Dell (forward P/E 19), but FCF is negative, so P/FCF cannot be calculated, and the low price reflects governance and margin risk.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−35 of −35
- −10Cash flowOperating cash flow was −$6.81bn and FCF −$6.97bn in FY26. Inventory rose $8.9bn to 12.9bn and receivables $3.9bn; only Q4 delivered positive operating cash flow ($0.75bn).
- −10Customer concentrationOne customer accounted for 62.6% of sales in Q2 FY26 and 45.1% in H1 according to the 10-Q.
- −10Governance and lawsuitsBDO has issued an adverse opinion on internal control, and material weaknesses from February 2025 are still not remediated. The CFO was to be replaced but is still in place after 14 months. Co-founder Wally Liaw was indicted (March 2026) for smuggling servers with NVIDIA chips worth about $2.5bn to China. The board's investigation (August) cleared current management, but class actions are pending (lead plaintiff appointed 13/7).
- −4Debt and dilutionIn June 2026 the company raised $7bn in shares and convertible preferred shares; the share count is +11% in a year (+1.9% in the latest quarter). Net debt $1.7bn.
- −3Guidance and deliveryQ4 revenue of $11.1bn missed expectations of $11.55bn, and Q3 was also at the bottom of guidance. Q1 guidance annualises to about $60bn vs full-year guidance of $65–72bn, so the rest of the year has to accelerate sharply.
- −2Insider tradingThe CEO's spouse sold shares for $7.7m in September; no insider buying found.
- −3Macro and sentimentDependent on AI capex; consensus is Hold, and Susquehanna (Sell, $15) and another Sell ($34) are far below the price of about $42.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2
- +2EstimatesFY27 guidance of $65–72bn in revenue (+66–84%), about $16bn above consensus at the midpoint.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
BDO has issued an adverse opinion on internal control, and there is still no new CFO 14 months after the recommendation. A co-founder is charged with smuggling $2.5bn of servers to China, and class actions are pending. One customer accounted for 62.6% of sales in one quarter. FCF was −$7.0bn in FY26. The 17.5% gross margin in Q4 is not proven sustainable, and Q1 guidance implies a net margin of about 4.5%.
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