Tullow Oil
28
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Lost tax arbitration in Ghana−18
- Debt and forced divestment−14
- Capital allocation−6
Strengths
- Reserves and licence+2
- Raised guidance+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.89 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,350m
- Cash runway
- 99 months
- Cash / debt
- 140.0 / 1,470.0m GBX
- Dilution, 12 months
- +1%
Bull case
Ghana accepts payment over several years, the oil price stays above USD 80, and FCF of USD 200m+ a year pays down debt. A sale of the Ghana assets or the whole company at e.g. 4x EBITDA (about USD 2.8bn EV) minus net debt of 1.4bn and tax of 0.4bn gives about USD 1bn for shareholders – about 5x the current market cap.
Bear case
The tax bill must be paid quickly, the oil price falls to USD 60 (hedged only about 60% in H2 2026 and 25–43% in 2027), and the second tax case is also lost. Then the 2027 sale could become a distressed sale in which the creditors get everything and the stock ends close to zero.
Catalysts
- Q4 2026 (no fixed date)Agreement with Ghana's government on paying the tax bill of up to USD 393m – determines liquiditybinary nairametrics.com
- 30 Sep 2027Deadline for a binding sales agreement for the assets; otherwise the maturity of the 2028 bonds is brought forward to 15/5-2028binary investegate.co.uk
- 2027First hearing in the second ICC tax case (interest expenses, 190.5 m USD)binary investegate.co.uk
Risk of going to zerohigh – negative equity, distressed exchange in 2026, tax bill of about 1.9x market cap and a forced sale process with deadline 30/9-2027. Positive FCF and no maintenance covenants pull down slightly.
Next financingOperations are cash positive (FCF guidance USD 170–250m for 2026), so runway is not the problem – but cash was USD 187.5m and liquidity about 250m as of 30/6-2026, while the tax bill from Ghana is up to USD 393m. The form of payment (instalments, offset) is being negotiated with Ghana, which says operations should not be disrupted. The refinancing requires a binding sale agreement for the assets by 30/9-2027, otherwise the 2028 bonds fall due in May 2028. No debt conversion or reverse split has been announced, but a new 'distressed exchange' with shares to the creditors or a sale of the whole company at a low price are realistic outcomes.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles to the lenders in the refinancing; only employee options (approx. 1% dilution). Debt: USD 1.21bn 2028 bonds, USD 423m Glencore junior debt (2030) and an undrawn cargo prepayment of USD 100m.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases or sales found in the sources read; only option exercises (c. 2.7m shares in H1 2026).
Largest ownersNot mapped in detail; insiders c. 8.9% and institutions c. 59% according to stockanalysis. Glencore is an important lender (junior debt and cargo facility), not a known major shareholder.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. GBP 155m. (2) Hot theme: no – oil in West Africa. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – agreement with Ghana and the sale process through 30/9-2027. (4) Major partner: partial – Glencore is lender and offtaker. (5) Funding 2+ years: no – the tax bill exceeds liquidity, and the debt must be resolved before 2028. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −50% in one day, −78% since 2021.
Why this asymmetryExtreme gearing means that a good deal with Ghana and a sensible sale could return many times the money, and the fields genuinely generate cash. But the debt (USD 1.4bn) and the tax (0.4bn) together are about 9 times the market cap, so most outcomes go to the creditors first.
How the score is built
From 100 to 28, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 9.94 GBX
- Median analyst target
- 10.00 GBX
- Upside to median
- +0.6%
- Analysts
- 7
- Target range
- 6.00 – 29.00 GBX
- 52-week change
- +3%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 0.8
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−21 of −30
- −5MarginThe fields are profitable (operating margin 39%, EBITDA margin 73% TTM), but interest and tax eat everything: net result −101 m USD in H1 2026 and losses in 3 of the last 5 years. Net financing costs were 230 m USD in H1 alone.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from USD 1.78bn (2022) to 847m (2025) after divesting Gabon, Kenya and Côte d'Ivoire to pay down debt. The H1 2026 improvement (+21%) is mainly due to an oil price of USD 95/barrel - not structural growth.
- −5Moat and concentrationAlmost all revenue comes from two mature fields in Ghana (Jubilee and TEN). The licence extension to 2040 helps, but the company is now dependent on one country and one government, and oil is not a future segment.
- −6Capital allocationLong history of value destruction: the share price has fallen from GBP 0.46 (2021) to about 0.10, net debt has not been brought below USD 1.4bn despite divestments, and the 2026 refinancing was treated as a 'distressed exchange' with USD 62m in fees.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyEV/EBITDA 2.6 (2.3-5.1 in 2021-2025) and P/FCF 0.7 look extremely cheap, but equity is negative (P/B -0.58), and the tax bill of up to USD 393m - about 1.9 times market cap - is not included in EV. Adjusted for it, EV/EBITDA is about 3.1, in line with the history for a leveraged E&P.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−32 of −35
- −18Lost tax arbitration in GhanaThe ICC tribunal ruled on 30/9-2026 that Ghana's tax assessment of USD 196.5m (insurance payouts 2016–2019) plus a 100% penalty is valid – in total up to USD 393m against liquidity of about 250m. A second tax case of USD 190.5m (interest expenses 2010–2020) is heard in 2027. The stock fell about 50%.
- −14Debt and forced divestmentNet debt USD 1.40bn (Altman Z −0.39). 2026 bonds of 1.285bn were swapped for 1.21bn in 2028 bonds and 423m in Glencore junior debt (2030). If there is no binding sale agreement for the assets by 30/9-2027, maturity is moved forward to 15/5-2028.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Reserves and licence2P reserves rose to 121.7m barrels of oil equivalent (reserve replacement over 380%), and Ghana's parliament ratified the license extension to 2040.
- +2Raised guidanceProduction is expected at the top of 34–42 kboe/d (H1: 43.7), and FCF guidance was raised to 170–250m USD at 70–100 USD/barrel.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Europe). Price in pence (GBX); accounts in USD, penny amounts converted to GBP millions (about 1.34 USD/GBP). Market cap calculated myself: about 1,520m shares × 10.22 pence = about GBP 155m (about DKK 1.35bn). The stock fell about 50% on 30/9-2026 when Tullow lost the arbitration case on tax in Ghana (up to USD 393m incl. a 100% penalty); how and when the amount is paid has not yet been agreed with Ghana. Coupons on the 2028 bonds and the Glencore debt have not been read. Largest owners not mapped in detail. Daily turnover is affected by the price crash.
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