Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Archer Aviation
Archer Aviation
27
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−33
- Cash flow and dilution−10
- Margin−8
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Validation+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 27, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 4.17 USD
- Median analyst target
- 11.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +163.8%
- Analysts
- 9
- Target range
- 7.00 – 18.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −63%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−16 of −30
- −8MarginPre-revenue: operating result −$934.6m TTM on $6.9m of revenue and a 14.5% gross margin. Q2 revenue was $5.0m with a net loss of $263.2m and adjusted EBITDA of −$177.1m. The loss is counted here and not again under ROIC (−30.7%).
- −4Quality of growthUpcoming revenue is mainly bought: Insitu alone adds over $200m a year vs analysts' own $15m for Archer in 2026. Insitu is a defence drone business, not the eVTOL core.
- −4Capital allocationWisk, Insitu and SkyGrid are paid for with 19.75% of the pre-closing shares plus two warrants to Boeing ($100m each at $13.00 and 17.88). On top came cash acquisitions of $154.6m and purchases of intangibles of $21m TTM.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−33 of −35
- −33Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 580 and EV/sales 372 TTM vs Joby 52 and 39 (the P/S history is meaningless: 18,364 in 2025). P/B 2.1 is at the low end of its own 0.9–6.6 range in 2021–25, and pro forma with Insitu EV/sales is about 15, but that is bought drone revenue; for the eVTOL business you pay for an option without earnings.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−23 of −35
- −10Cash flow and dilutionFCF −$660m TTM (−$511.7m in 2025), stock-based pay $297.6m TTM and share count +48% in a year. Q3 guidance is adjusted EBITDA of −$170 to −200m, so liquidity of $1.56bn lasts about two years; the Boeing deal issues a further 19.75%.
- −7Execution (certification)FAA phase 4 (TIA flight testing) is estimated at 18–24 months, so type certification is expected at the end of 2027–2028 at the earliest. Until then there are only pilot operations under the White House eIPP programme, which according to Q2 starts later this year.
- −4GovernanceThe SPAC lawsuit continues, and the Grizzly short report about edited flight videos is unresolved. Finance is run by an interim CFO.
- −2Insider trading21 sales by six senior employees in 2026 totalling about $5.4m (latest: President Ben Lyon on 21/9 at $5.43). No open-market purchases; some are sales on vesting.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Net cashNet cash $1.44bn ($1.56bn of liquidity vs $125.6m of debt), about 36% of market value, but it was created through dilution and is being used up at about $0.7bn a year.
- +2ValidationBoeing becomes a strategic partner and shareholder (19.75% of pre-closing shares, about 16.5% after), with a 12-month lock-up, a board seat above 10% and warrants at $13.00 and 17.88, far above the share price.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Pre-revenue: $6.9m TTM, and FAA type certification is expected at the earliest end-2027–2028. The Boeing acquisition (Wisk, Insitu, SkyGrid) has not closed; the HSR waiting period expired on 23–24/9 according to the press, but national security approval is outstanding (deadline 9/5/2027). Pro forma with Insitu (over $200m/year) the sales multiple falls sharply. Price targets last updated 17/8.
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