Rankings Tech hardware & optics Vantiva
Vantiva
35
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Debt and liquidity−12
- Margin−10
- Multiples vs own history−8
Strengths
- No documented strengths.
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.57 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 280m
- Cash runway
- 99 months
- Cash / debt
- 21.0 / 557.0m EUR
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
Memory supply normalises, the DOCSIS 4.0 and Wi-Fi 7 replacement at US cable operators lifts Broadband, and EBITDA returns to EUR 120m (2025 level). With EV/EBITDA 5, EV becomes 600m, and after net debt of approx. 500m equity could be 100m – approx. 2.5-3x now. The high debt makes the share a leveraged option.
Bear case
Video disappears faster than Broadband grows, EBITDA stays in the 80–90m range, PIK interest increases the debt, and the convertible bond is issued at a low price. Then the equity is effectively worthless (EV of 5x 85m = 425m below net debt), and the share price could fall 50–90%.
Catalysts
- 2026-10-27 (approx.)Revenue for Q3 2026 - shows whether the memory shortage and Video decline continuegradual stockanalysis.com
- Nov–Dec 2026Move of the listing to Euronext Growth (at the earliest two months after 23/9-2026, requires Euronext's approval)gradual webdisclosure.com
- 2027 (no fixed date)General meeting on possible convertible bondbinary vantiva.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – refinanced to 2030 and FCF-positive, but negative equity of −547m, net debt 14 times the market cap and declining revenue.
Next financingNo acute financing need: debt was refinanced in H1 2026 with a four-year extension (Barclays 295m, Angelo Gordon 154m incl. PIK, Wells Fargo USD 64m), and the company had positive FCF of 30m in H1 and confirms positive FCF for 2026 (runway set to 99). But liquidity is thin (cash 21m + 6m undrawn credit), the PIK interest increases the debt, and a convertible bond is coming up for a vote in 2027. No sauvegarde procedure in progress; old shareholders were previously diluted in 2020 and 2023.
Warrants & convertiblesPossible convertible bond – general meeting vote postponed to 2027 (amount and conversion price not disclosed). Warrants from the 2022–2023 restructuring have not been mapped.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined in detail; no insider purchases found in the sources read.
Largest ownersFormer creditors from the restructurings (incl. Angelo Gordon, Bpifrance and Briarwood) – stakes not verified; institutions about 16% and free float about 216m shares (44%) according to stockanalysis.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. EUR 37m. (2) Hot theme: no – TV boxes and routers are a mature market. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – Q3 revenue and Euronext Growth, no binary data. (4) Major partner: partial – large US operators as customers and Barclays/Angelo Gordon as lenders, but no strategic validation. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – debt extended four years and positive FCF. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −42% in a year and −93% from 2021 (1.05 → 0.0764 EUR); RSI 23.
Why this asymmetryThe leverage gives large upside if EBITDA returns, and the refinancing removes the acute bankruptcy risk. But revenue is falling, equity is deeply negative, and a convertible bond can take the upside, so the downside is still large.
How the score is built
From 100 to 35, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.08 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 0.09 EUR
- Upside to median
- +13.5%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 0.08 – 0.10 EUR
- 52-week change
- −38%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −10MarginGross margin only 12.8% TTM and adjusted EBITDA EUR 43m in H1 2026 (5.8%) vs 66m a year earlier; adjusted EBITA fell to 17m. Net income −68m in H1 and −166m TTM; loss-making every year since 2023.
- −7Quality of growthRevenue fell 14.7% in H1 2026 to EUR 734m: Broadband -5.5% and Video -40.1%. The TV box business is in structural decline, and growth in 2024 came solely from the acquisition of CommScope Home Networks.
- −5MoatGateways and TV boxes are hardware bought by a few large operators in tenders; low gross margin (12.8%) and dependence on memory chips, whose price and allocation Vantiva does not control, show poor pricing power.
- −5Capital allocationRepeated restructurings (1:27 reverse split in 2020) and dilution of 32–38% a year in 2023–2024; the acquisition of CommScope Home Networks has not stopped the revenue decline, and equity is −EUR 547m.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−8 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyEV/EBITDA 5.5 vs 3.4-19.7 in 2021-2025 and EV/Sales 0.36 vs 0.29-0.82 - in the middle of the range, not cheap. Market cap (about 37m) is only 7% of EV (about 574m), and book equity is negative, so the stock is a small option on top of the debt.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−24 of −35
- −12Debt and liquidityNet debt EUR 536m incl. leasing (approx. 5.4x EBITDA), cash 21m and only 6m undrawn of a credit line of 70m as of 30/6-2026. The Angelo Gordon loan carries Euribor + 4% plus 4% PIK the first year and then +8%; interest cover 0.66 and Altman Z −0.82.
- −5Supply chain and memory pricesManagement cannot give revenue guidance due to an industry-wide shortage of components driven by memory allocation and prices; it hit both revenue and margin in H1 2026.
- −4Dilution (convertible bond)A general meeting vote on a possible issue of a convertible bond has been postponed to 2027; with a market cap of 37m vs 536m in net debt, any conversion will dilute heavily.
- −3Governance – move to Euronext GrowthOn 23/9-2026 shareholders resolved to move the listing to Euronext Growth: lower disclosure requirements, no vote on executive pay and fewer minority protections (mandatory bid is retained only for three years).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 0 findings±0 of +15
- No findings recorded.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Europe). French supplier of broadband gateways and TV boxes (formerly Technicolor) with about 59% of revenue in the US; bought CommScope's Home Networks in 2024. Has been through restructurings in 2020 (safeguard, 1:27 reverse split) and 2022–2023 (spin-off of Technicolor Creative Studios, debt restructuring with creditors as new owners). The debt was refinanced in H1 2026 with a four-year term (Barclays 295m, Angelo Gordon 154m incl. PIK, Wells Fargo USD 64m; weighted interest rate 7.6%). The general meeting on 23/9-2026 approved a move from Euronext Paris to Euronext Growth (earliest about 2 months later). Market cap calculated myself: 490.3m shares × EUR 0.0764 = EUR 37.5m (about DKK 280m; Nordnet shows 283). The company's FCF (+30m in H1 2026) differs from stockanalysis' TTM FCF (−13m); the company's figure is used. The precise stakes of the largest owners are not verified; insider trades not investigated. Customers are large cable and telecom operators, but the concentration is not quantified.
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