Rankings Commodities & uranium USA Rare Earth
USA Rare Earth
35
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−24
- Margin−10
- Dilution−6
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Government support+2
- Strategic asset+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 35, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 8.86 USD
- Median analyst target
- 34.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +284.0%
- Analysts
- 9
- Target range
- 21.00 – 45.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −54%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−19 of −30
- −10MarginGross margin −9.7% and operating margin −859% TTM: an operating loss of $113m on only $13.2m of revenue; net loss $311m (ROIC −5.8%, counted only here). The company has never had an operating profit, and analysts expect an operating loss of $143m in 2026.
- −4Future segmentThe Stillwater magnet plant (phase 1a) started in March and is only to reach 600 t/year by the end of Q4 2026; Q2 revenue was only $5.8m. The Blacksburg plant (6,400 t/year) is only to be commissioned in 2028, and the Round Top feasibility study is only published in Q1 2027.
- −5Capital allocationThe company has become an acquisition platform before its own magnet production is at scale: LCM ($102m in cash, goodwill $135m), 13.6% of Carester, TMRC and Serra Verde at about $2.8bn ($300m in cash + 126.8m new shares at $19.95 – the stock is now at $14.42).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−24 of −35
- −24Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 268 and EV/sales 152 TTM; P/B 1.39 vs 1.8–7.6 in 2023–25, but book value is mostly PIPE cash and goodwill. Pro forma (371.6m shares) the market value is about $5.4bn and EV over $4bn plus Serra Verde's debt, i.e. about 6 times the 2027 revenue estimate ($713m) and about 480 times 2027 EPS ($0.03). You pay for a completed mine-to-magnet chain that does not yet make money.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−21 of −35
- −5Cash flow and fundingFCF −$246m TTM, and analysts expect FCF of −$1.57bn in 2026 (Serra Verde cash, Stillwater and Blacksburg at about $1.2bn). Government funds are only paid out on milestones, so the $1.53bn of cash (30/6) disappears fast.
- −6DilutionThe share count has risen 110% in a year (a $1.5bn PIPE at $21.50) and rises about 52% more with 126.8m Serra Verde shares. The Commerce Department gets 16.1m shares and about 17.6m warrants, and warrant/earnout liabilities rose from $128m to 364m in H1.
- −3Governance and political dependenceBloomberg (23/9): the week before Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced the government's $1.6bn, bankers at his former firm Cantor Fitzgerald earned fees raising $1.5bn for the company from private investors. The business plan rests on continued political goodwill.
- −3Integration and debtWith Serra Verde, USAR takes on 'significant debt' under Serra Verde's Retained Finance Agreement and must integrate four acquisitions on three continents (the US, the UK/France, Brazil) at the same time as three construction projects.
- −2Sentiment and short interest16% of the shares (24% of the free float) are sold short; the stock is −17% over 52 weeks and about −54% from its peak, beta 2.6.
- −2China's export controls and pricesThe case rests on China's export controls. The suspension of the expanded rules from October 2025 expires on 10/11/2026; an extension or easing could push prices down, while China still dominates refining and magnets.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Net cashCash $1.53bn vs debt of $3.2m at 30/6 (before $300m in cash to Serra Verde); current ratio 32.8.
- +2Government supportLOI with the Commerce Department for $277m of CHIPS grants and $1.3bn of senior loans in exchange for shares and warrants (January 2026).
- +1Strategic assetSerra Verde is the only producer at scale outside Asia of all four magnetic rare earths (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb); about 4,000 t TREO/year by the end of 2026, with a phase 1 expansion to 6,400 t.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Industry set to 'Commodities & uranium' (not 'Grid & electrical equipment'): after the Serra Verde acquisition (closed 3/9) most assets and expected revenue come from mining and oxides in Brazil, and the magnet price follows NdPr/Dy/Tb – hence cyclical. stockanalysis' market value ($3.53bn) uses 244.7m shares from before closing; with 126.8m Serra Verde shares it is in reality about $5.4bn. The net loss ($311m TTM) is distorted by revaluation of warrants/earnout. The Commerce package ($277m grant + $1.3bn loan) is an LOI with milestone-based disbursements. Insider trading is mixed and modest (director Blitzer bought $2.1m in January; minor sales in May–June) – no deduction given. Serra Verde's debt is not quantified in the material.
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