Rankings Commodities & uranium CanAlaska
CanAlaska
46
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Resource and studies−10
- Dilution−9
Strengths
- Large partner+2
- Partner-funded projects+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 5
- Price
- 1.44 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 318m
- Cash runway
- 18 months
- Cash / debt
- 29.4 / 0.5m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +21%
Bull case
Summer drilling finds more high-grade lenses, so Pike Zone can grow towards a first resource; high-grade discoveries in southeastern Athabasca (neighbours of McArthur River) have historically led to takeovers. With an EV of only about CAD 40m, a few strong holes could send market cap back to the 2025 level (about CAD 150–250m), i.e. 2–4x.
Bear case
The summer results disappoint, uranium stocks fall further, and the company must raise CAD 10–15m at CAD 0.20–0.30 (+20–35% shares) to keep drilling. Cash covers about 18 months, so zero is not imminent, but a slow dilution towards CAD 0.10–0.20 is realistic.
Catalysts
- Q4 2026Assay results from the 2026 summer drilling at West McArthur (step-outs along the C10S corridor from Pike Zone; the programme ended in September)binary stocktitan.net
- 17 Dec 2026Quarterly report (estimated date) - cash after the summer programgradual stockanalysis.com
- Winter 2027First drilling season under new exploration director James Sykes (project leader at NexGen's Arrow discovery in 2014), appointed 21/9-2026gradual nasdaq.com
Risk of going to zerolow to medium - cash equals about 43% of market cap, and the jurisdiction is first class, but there is no resource, and burn is about C$19m per year.
Next financingCash of C$29.4m at 31/7-2026 ('over 25m' at 17/8) vs spending of approx. C$4.8m per quarter; runway approx. 18 months, but a new winter program in 2027 at the same level as 2026 (C$15m) will typically be financed with a flow-through issue in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 – at a far lower price than last time.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found. Warrants and options are not quantified; share-based compensation of C$6.5m in fiscal 2026 suggests a substantial option programme. The share count rose 20.9% in a year; the latest issue (Oct. 2025) was 9.76m flow-through shares at C$1.50–1.65.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked). Insiders own c. 6.1% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail. Institutions c. 31%, insiders c. 6.1% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 318m, EV approx. DKK 185m. (2) Hot theme: yes – uranium in the Athabasca. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – the summer's drill results. (4) Major partner: partial – Cameco owns approx. 11% of West McArthur, but funds only a small part. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 18 months. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −73% in a year.
Why this asymmetryA high-grade find in the world's best uranium jurisdiction, cash of about 43% of market cap and a price after a 73% fall. But without a resource it is a drilling-result bet, and annual dilution of 20%+ eats the upside if the find does not grow.
How the score is built
From 100 to 46, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.24 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 1.55 CAD
- Upside to median
- +532.7%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 1.37 – 1.89 CAD
- 52-week change
- −74%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−26 of −30
- −12MarginNo revenue; operating result −C$23.3m and FCF −C$19.2m TTM (ROE −75%, counted only here). The loss has grown from −C$8m in fiscal 2024 to −C$20.5m in 2026.
- −10Resource and studiesNo NI 43-101 resource and no PEA/PFS. Pike Zone has given a few very high-grade intercepts in 2025 (8.6 m at 34.6% U3O8), but the 2026 winter drilling found only narrow high-grade sections (0.5 m at 10.5% U) in 10 of 24 tests – the discovery is far from a mine.
- −4Capital allocationShare-based pay of C$6.5m in fiscal year 2026 – about a quarter of the operating loss and more than a tripling from 2025 (C$2.4m).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Valuation vs historyP/B 2.46 vs 3.2–7.2 in 2022–26 and EV only approx. CAD 40m (cash CAD 29m). Cheap vs its own history, but book value is almost only cash, which is spent at approx. CAD 19m a year, and there is no resource to measure EV against.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−19 of −35
- −9DilutionThe share count has risen about 21–23% every year for five years (42% in 2022) to 221.3m. The flow-through issue in October 2025 was done at C$1.50–1.65; with the price at C$0.31, the next program of C$10–15m will require about 30–50m new shares (+15–22%).
- −6Exploration risk and sentimentThe stock is −73% over 52 weeks and trades below the 200-day average (C$0.59). The value hinges on whether the 2026 summer drilling finds more high-grade lenses along the C10S corridor – a binary outcome.
- −4FundingThe 2026 budget for West McArthur is C$15m (CanAlaska's share about 89%), and the company had 'over C$25m' in August; without partner funding the cash lasts about 1.5 years, after which new money must be raised.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Large partnerCameco is a co-owner of West McArthur and owns the neighbouring McArthur River mine – a real, but small (about 11%) validation.
- +1Partner-funded projectsCree East is drilled at the partner's expense: Nexus Uranium can earn up to 75% for C$0.75m in cash, shares worth C$3m and C$5.5m in exploration.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). Pure exploration company in the Athabasca Basin (Saskatchewan) with no revenue, no NI 43-101 resource and no PEA/PFS; the main asset is the Pike Zone discovery at West McArthur (CanAlaska approx. 88.9%, Cameco the rest). Fiscal year May–April; latest figures as of 31/7-2026. The results from the 2026 summer drilling (completed in September) have not been published. The reason for the 73% share price fall over one year is not documented beyond weaker winter results and sector sentiment. Warrants/options, insider trades and largest shareholders have not been examined systematically. Quarterly burn is TTM FCF/4; the company reported 'over 25m C$' in cash on 17/8-2026.
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