Rankings Commodities & uranium Energy Fuels
Energy Fuels
39
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−24
- Margin−8
- Dilution−6
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Government support+2
- Low costs+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 39, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 7.39 USD
- Median analyst target
- 24.13 USD
- Upside to median
- +226.5%
- Analysts
- 7
- Target range
- 14.00 – 32.50 USD
- 52-week change
- −64%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−18 of −30
- −8MarginOperating margin −79% TTM (−153% in 2025) and a net loss of $82m on $106m of revenue; gross margin 41% from uranium. ROIC has been negative every year in 2021–26 (−12 to −25%) and is counted only here.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue swings with uranium sales ($78m → 66m → 106m). In Q2 only 310,000 lbs of uranium were sold out of 865,000 lbs produced (revenue $25.1m, net loss $33.6m), and there was no revenue from rare earths.
- −4Capital allocationA loss-making uranium producer is buying its way into a global mine-to-magnet conglomerate in one year: ASM ($299m), VAC (about $1.9bn + $140m net debt) and the Donald earn-in, on top of Toliara and Bahia. That is a lot of capital at once and before its own separation is at scale.
- −3Future segmentRare earths are still being built up: the phase 1 heavy rare earth circuits ($104m) are only to be commissioned at the end of 2027, and phase 2 (6,000 t NdPr/year, $410m capex) is not yet built.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−24 of −35
- −24Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 26 TTM vs 12.9 (2024), 30.6 (2023) and 52 (2025); EV/sales 23.4; P/B 3.46 vs 1.9–5.0 in 2021–25; forward P/S 15.6. A forward P/E of about 22 rests on a 2027 EPS estimate ($0.49) that must come from a loss of −$0.28 in 2026, and which the VAC shares dilute. Richly priced for a loss-making commodity producer.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35
- −4FundingFCF −$120m TTM. VAC requires $718m in cash – most of the $937m of liquidity – and there is $678m of convertible debt. The $725m OSC loan is only conditional.
- −6DilutionThe share count has risen 22% in a year and 31% in 2025. VAC adds 65.85m shares (about +26%), ASM's owners received new shares, and the convertible bond could add more.
- −3Integration and executionThree acquisitions and four projects on four continents (the US, Germany, Australia, Madagascar/Brazil) at once; VAC's closing requires regulatory approvals and is only expected in early 2027.
- −2Sentiment and short interest22% of the shares are sold short (8.5 days to cover), and the stock is −34% over 52 weeks and below both its 50- and 200-day averages.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Net cashCash and securities of $937m vs $678m of debt (net cash $283m) and working capital of $996m at 30/6.
- +2Government supportA conditional $725m loan commitment from the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital (18/6) for separation and metallisation in the US and White Mesa.
- +1Low costsThe Pinyon Plain ore gives a production cost of about $23/lb vs a realised price of $80.48/lb in Q2 (57% gross margin on uranium).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
All TTM revenue is uranium; rare earths generated no revenue in Q2. Earnings follow uranium and NdPr prices (cyclical). The VAC acquisition ($718m cash + 65.85m shares + about $140m net debt) has not closed (expected in early 2027), so key figures and share count are pre-VAC; ASM ($299m) closed on 28/8. The $725m OSC loan is only a conditional commitment. Insider trading and litigation have not been examined. The 2027 EPS estimate ($0.49) rests on a sharp increase and only a few analysts.
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