Rankings Commodities & uranium Guanajuato Silver
Guanajuato Silver
46
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−9
- Valuation vs history−9
- Resources and mine quality−6
Strengths
- Accretive acquisition+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 1.83 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,392m
- Cash runway
- 12 months
- Cash / debt
- 27.3 / 10.8m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +42%
Bull case
Silver holds above USD 80/oz, the Bolanitos development lifts production markedly from 2027, and VMC is restarted. With EBITDA of USD 60–80m a year and an EV/EBITDA of 5–6 like established mid-sized producers, market cap could reach CAD 1–1.2bn – about 3–4x today's.
Bear case
The silver price falls 30–40%, and then the thin margin disappears entirely (operating margin about 7% at USD 80/oz). With negative working capital and record capex, a large issue below the market price is required; the company has diluted about 3.7x since 2021 and produces without reserves.
Catalysts
- Oct 2026Production figures for Q3 2026 – first test of whether the development work at Bolanitos lifts tonnage and gradegradual stocktitan.net
- 27 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report (estimated date) – margin, cash and AISC after record capexgradual stockanalysis.com
- no dateRestart of mining at VMC once a high-margin life-of-mine plan is in placegradual mexicominingcenter.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – real revenue of approx. $170m and positive operating cash flow, but thin margin, negative working capital and full dependence on the silver price; zero is unlikely, but dilution of 30–50% is realistic.
Next financingOperations are cash flow positive before capex (OCF $3.6m in Q2), but the record-sized development programme gave FCF −$4.9m in Q2, and working capital is negative. The shelf prospectus of US$65m is ready, so a new issue (probably units with warrants) is realistic within 6–12 months if the silver price falls or the Bolanitos ramp-up is delayed.
Warrants & convertiblesAbout 93.5m warrants at C$0.65 expiring 9/10-2028 (from the issue of 87m units at C$0.50 in Oct 2025 + over-allotment). Contingent Bolanitos payments of 2 x US$5m at 2 and 4m oz AgEq, 50% in shares. New base shelf of up to US$65m (25 months) from 25/9-2026.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined systematically; no insider purchases found in the searches. Insiders own c. 3.7% according to stockanalysis. New COO (Colin Bower) appointed 9/9-2026.
Largest ownersEndeavour Silver (about 36.9m shares, about 4.9%, partial lock-up); institutions about 11.7% combined; others not examined.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – approx. C$300m (DKK 1.4bn). (2) Hot theme: yes – silver near a record price. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – Bolanitos ramp and VMC plan, but no binary events. (4) Major partner: partial – Endeavour Silver is a shareholder after the sale of Bolanitos. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – negative working capital and a new shelf of USD 65m. (6) Price near the bottom: no – −32% in a year, but far above the 2024 level.
Why this asymmetryA real producer with gearing to the silver price, but costs are so high that the company barely makes money at record prices. The upside requires both a higher silver price and an operational lift, while the downside on a price fall is large and dilution continues.
How the score is built
From 100 to 46, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.30 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 0.75 CAD
- Upside to median
- +150.0%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 0.55 – 0.80 CAD
- 52-week change
- −13%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 4.3
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−21 of −30
- −9MarginEven with silver above $80/oz, the operating margin in Q2 2026 was only about 7% (operating profit $2.9m on $42.5m revenue) and net profit $0.6m. TTM net loss of C$ −35.8m (Q4 2025 alone −$25.6m). A high-cost producer that barely makes money at record prices.
- −6Resources and mine qualityThe production decisions at all mines are not based on a feasibility study or mineral reserves; El Cubo has only inferred resources. Extraction at VMC has been paused, and Bolanitos has high costs due to a lack of development.
- −6Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 205m (2021) to 759m (+42.5% over a year) through repeated issues, without shareholders having received a sustained profit. Latest big issue in October 2025 at C$0.50 with a full warrant.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−9 of −35
- −9Valuation vs historyEV/Sales 1.6 vs 0.9-1.2 in 2023-24 and P/B 3.0 for a company with negative ROE (-65%). EV/EBITDA 10.9 and forward P/E 4.7 are built on a historically high silver price - low multiples at the top of the cycle are not cheap.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−20 of −35
- −6LiquidityCash fell from $42.7m (Q4 2025) to $19.9m (Q2 2026), while current liabilities ($53.5m) exceed current assets ($49.6m). Record capex program in 2026, FCF -$4.9m in Q2, and a deferred payment of about $9.5m to Ocean Partners in April 2028.
- −6DilutionNew base shelf prospectus for up to US$65m (about 30% of market cap) approved 25/9-2026; about 93.5m warrants at C$0.65 (expiring Oct. 2028) and contingent Bolanitos payments, partly paid in shares.
- −3JurisdictionAll assets are in Mexico (Guanajuato and Durango) with a tightened mining law from 2023, shorter concessions and security risk in the state of Guanajuato.
- −3Silver price and hedgingEarnings follow the silver and gold price; c. 34% of the silver and 25% of the gold is hedged (fixed $84.50 and collar $80–93), so the company does not have the full upside but has full downside on the rest.
- −2SentimentThe stock is −32% over 52 weeks, fell 11.9% on the Q2 figures and trades below the issue price of C$0.50 from October 2025.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Accretive acquisitionBolanitos was bought by Endeavour Silver for $40m ($30m in cash, $10m in shares) plus up to $10m contingent and doubled revenue to about $43m per quarter.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Canada). The company reports in USD; penny amounts are converted to CAD (about 1.37 CAD/USD) or taken from stockanalysis' CAD statistics. No mineral reserves and no feasibility study for any of the mines (El Cubo, VMC, San Ignacio, Topia, Bolanitos). AISC and working capital for Q2 2026 appear only in image tables and have not been read. Insider trades and largest owners beyond Endeavour Silver have not been investigated systematically. Only 2 analysts. Bolanitos was taken over in January 2026, so revenue growth is primarily acquired and silver-price driven.
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