Rankings Commodities & uranium HPQ Silicon
HPQ Silicon
44
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Liquidity and dilution−14
- Margin−12
- Business model and control−8
Strengths
- Defense contract in Novacium+2
- Technical validation (fumed silica)+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.63 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 296m
- Cash runway
- 5 months
- Cash / debt
- 1.8 / 0.1m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +14%
Bull case
A binding agreement is signed for a commercial fumed silica plant financed by a major producer, and Novacium's defence prototypes become series orders, so Novacium raises capital worth far more than EUR 30m. If HPQ's 36.8% of Novacium became worth C$50–70m and 50% of HSPI C$50–100m, the market cap could go from 64 to C$150–250m (2–4x) – but only if HPQ avoids heavy dilution at the same time.
Bear case
No binding agreements before the cash runs out at year-end, so HPQ must do an issue at C$0.08–0.12 (+20–30% shares) or sell some of its stakes. Novacium and HSPI require more capital, which HPQ cannot follow, so the stakes are diluted. The share price could halve again, as it has fallen 25% in a year and 58% from the market cap in 2021.
Catalysts
- 2026-11-27 (estimated)Q3 2026 results – shows whether new capital has been raised, and how the HSPI transaction is bookedgradual stockanalysis.com
- No date given (negotiations resumed Sept. 2026)Possible binding agreement on a 1,000 t/year fumed silica plant or with a global fumed silica producerbinary globenewswire.com
- After the first batch (date not stated)STAT's field evaluation (RETEX) of Novacium's prototype batteries, which could lead to larger defence ordersgradual globenewswire.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – very small cash (approx. 5 months of runway), but debt-free and with a stake in Novacium that can be sold or pledged; an actual zero requires both Novacium and fumed silica to fail.
Next financingCash and securities of C$1.78m at 30/6-2026 vs spending of approx. C$1.1m per quarter – lasts only until approx. November 2026. A new private placement (probably units with warrants at around C$0.12–0.15) or sale of securities is expected in Q4 2026. The fumed silica plant itself has to be financed via HSPI/partners ('commercial financing'), which could dilute HPQ's 50%.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found (debt only C$0.12m). From the placement 2/3-2026: 18.18m warrants + 1.09m finder warrants at C$0.25, expiring c. March 2028 (c. 85% above the share price). Other warrants and options not quantified (MD&A not readable).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider trades found (not systematically checked). Insiders own c. 7.0% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersInsiders approx. 7.0% (incl. CEO Bernard Tourillon, stake not stated); one foreign investor bought all 18.2m units in March 2026 (approx. 3.9%); institutions not disclosed. Full ownership list not found.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. C$64m. (2) Hot theme: yes – silicon anodes, defense batteries and fumed silica. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – JV negotiations and STAT evaluation, but without dates. (4) Major partner: no – PyroGenesis and Novacium are small; the 'global producer' is unnamed and non-binding. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 5 months. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – −25% in a year and below the 200-day average (C$0.17), but not after a collapse.
Why this asymmetryThere is genuine optionality in two technologies with technical validation and a French defence contract, but HPQ owns only minority stakes, controls neither and has almost no cash. The upside is shared with partners, while the dilution risk sits with HPQ's shareholders.
How the score is built
From 100 to 44, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.10 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −43%
- P/E (trailing)
- 1.3
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−24 of −30
- −12MarginNo revenue; operating result −C$3.4m and EBITDA −C$3.2m TTM. The positive net result (+C$35.3m) is an accounting gain on the deconsolidation of Novacium in Q4 2025 (+C$38.6m), not operations – the last two quarters gave −1.45 and −1.16m C$.
- −8Business model and controlHPQ no longer controls its two value-bearing assets: Novacium (36.8%, deconsolidated to secure French control and access to French/EU funds) and the fumed silica company, where PyroGenesis from 29/9-2026 has converted its 10% royalty into 50% ownership. After more than ten years of silicon technology there is no commercial product in HPQ itself.
- −4Capital allocationRepeated write-downs of earlier technology projects (C$3.9m in 2023 and C$1.5m in 2024; intangible assets down from C$13.3m to C$2.5m), and market cap has fallen from C$154m in 2021 to C$64m while the share count has grown.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−7 of −35
- −7Valuation vs history and contentP/B 1.44 vs 1.89 at the turn of the year looks cheap, but book value is almost entirely an unlisted Novacium stake at fair value (CAD 42.5m), while the Novacium deal in 2026 happened at an implied EV of only approx. EUR 30m for the whole company (36.8% ≈ EUR 11m). EV of approx. CAD 62m for a company with no revenue and two minority stakes is not cheap; trailing P/E 1.7 is meaningless.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−22 of −35
- −14Liquidity and dilutionCash and securities of only C$1.78m at 30/6-2026 (of which 0.84m in marketable securities), working capital C$0.2m and operating spending of approx. C$1–1.1m per quarter – runway approx. 5 months from June. The share count has risen 13.9% in a year; the March placement of C$3m at C$0.165 came with 19.3m warrants at C$0.25. A new issue below the market price is likely before year-end.
- −5Non-binding commercial agreementsAll four fumed silica options (global producer, 1,000 t/year JV, Asian customer, Middle East) are 'preliminary' and without a binding agreement, and there is no capex, financing or timeline for a commercial plant. HPQ's share is now only 50%, and HPQ does not have the capital itself for its share of a plant.
- −3Dependence on weak partnersBoth fumed silica (PyroGenesis as exclusive equipment supplier and 50% owner) and batteries (Novacium, French-controlled) depend on small, capital-starved partners that HPQ does not control – the value can be diluted in the partners' own capital raises.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +1Technical validation (fumed silica)The pilot reactor produced fumed silica with approx. 191 m²/g, which a potential customer has independently verified as commercial '150' grade, and HPQ received a first order of 50 kg for customer testing in February 2026.
- +2Defense contract in NovaciumThe French army's technical section (STAT) has given Novacium a contract for prototype batteries for tactical radios (23% more energy than the reference battery), and Novacium received in September 2026 a first order for over 100 AA battery packs from a European anti-drone firm. The amounts are not disclosed.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). HPQ is effectively a holding company for minority stakes in technology projects: 36.8% of French Novacium SAS (silicon anodes and batteries, deconsolidated from 2025) and 50% of HPQ Silica Polvere (the fumed silica reactor, 50/50 with PyroGenesis from 29/9-2026). PyroGenesis is analysed separately; the fumed silica project is counted here only as HPQ's half, and the same risk (the JV is non-binding) has not been counted twice across the two stocks. Industry: 'Commodities & uranium' is the closest (silicon-based materials); cyclical set to false, because there is no commodity cycle in earnings. Net income of +C$35m TTM is a non-cash gain from the deconsolidation of Novacium in Q4 2025 and has been disregarded; book equity (C$44m) consists almost only of an unlisted investment (C$42.5m) at level 3 fair value. The MD&A for Q2 2026 could not be read (PDF), so cash and burn are from stockanalysis; the going concern note and the full warrant/option register have not been checked. Any financing after 30/6-2026 has not been found. Market cap 471.78m shares × C$0.135 = C$63.7m (about DKK 296m, slightly below Nordnet's 313m). No analyst coverage (forecast 404). Insider trades not calculated.
Also in Commodities & uranium
The highest scores in the same industry.
