Rankings Commodities & uranium Iluka Resources
Iluka Resources
62
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−12
- Margin and ROIC−9
- FCF yield−6
Strengths
- Government funding+3
- Debt reduction+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 62, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 5.78 AUD
- Median analyst target
- 7.43 AUD
- Upside to median
- +28.5%
- Analysts
- 10
- Target range
- 6.15 – 10.00 AUD
- 52-week change
- −16%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−20 of −30
- −9Margin and ROICOperating margin −22.2% and a net loss of A$404m TTM (ROIC −6.1%, counted only here) vs ROIC of 35% in 2022 and 17.9% in 2023. Underlying EBITDA in H1 2026 fell 77% to A$53m.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue has fallen four years in a row from A$1.61bn (2022) to 894m TTM; mineral sands revenue fell 22% in H1, and the Cataby mine and SR2 kiln are idled because of weak demand.
- −3Future segmentThe Eneabba refinery is about 60% complete and will only be commissioned in 2027; the first binding offtake agreement (a global carmaker) covers only about 10% of planned output with minimum revenue of A$155m over four years.
- −3Capital allocationThe Eneabba budget has risen from about A$1.2bn to 1.7–1.8bn (+42–50%) because of new process chemistry, a remote location and construction inflation.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−18 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own historyNo P/E (losses in 2025 and TTM, and an expected loss in 2026). EV/EBITDA 19.4 vs 4.0–7.9 in 2021–25; P/S 2.9 vs 1.85–3.2 and P/B 1.26 vs 0.92–2.7. The whole valuation rests on a refinery that does not yet produce.
- −6FCF yieldFCF −A$629m TTM (FCF yield −24.6%) after capex of A$819m; analysts expect FCF of −A$505m for 2026.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−8 of −35
- −4Debt and balance sheetGroup net debt has risen from A$155m (2024) to 1.23bn; debt/EBITDA 7.6, negative interest cover, Altman Z 1.26 and Piotroski 2. The government loan is non-recourse, but the mineral sands business still has to carry A$273m of net debt.
- −2Execution (Balranald)The new Balranald mine is still ramping up with production headwinds; the focus is on extraction and recovery now that both mining units are finally running.
- −2China and the NdPr priceEneabba's economics depend on an NdPr price set in China (¥738,000/t on 24/9, 13% below the February peak), and Iluka has no publicly disclosed price floor like Lynas' JARE deal or MP's deal with the Pentagon.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Government fundingExport Finance Australia has confirmed a non-recourse loan of A$1.65bn for Eneabba, including a cost-overrun facility shared 50/50 with the government.
- +1Debt reductionMineral sands net debt has been reduced from A$473m to 273m since December 2025 through inventory sales and higher zircon prices; operating cash flow +115% to A$247m in H1.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Today Iluka is a mineral sands business (zircon, rutile, synthetic rutile); rare earths only generate revenue once the Eneabba refinery is commissioned in 2027. The TTM loss is marked by about A$565m of impairments and inventory items after the suspension of Cataby and SR2. Group net debt (A$1.23bn) includes government loans for Eneabba, which are non-recourse; mineral sands net debt is A$273m. Only 2 analysts in stockanalysis' estimates. Not traded on Nordnet DK (ASX only); the OTC lines ILKAF/ILKAY are not in Nordnet's search API. Insider trading has not been examined.
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