Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Kongsberg Gruppen
Kongsberg Gruppen
67
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−13
- Absolute price level−5
- Peers−4
Strengths
- Order book+3
- Net cash and return on capital+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 67, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 354.20 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 415.00 NOK
- Upside to median
- +17.2%
- Analysts
- 11
- Target range
- 320.00 – 554.00 NOK
- 52-week change
- +37%
- P/E (trailing)
- 43.7
- Forward P/E
- 34.6
- PEG
- 0.99
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−4 of −30
- −2Margin and quality of growthBigger, but not stronger in Q2: Defence Systems grew 53%, but the EBIT margin fell to 17.7% from 19.6%, and Discovery fell to 15.3% from 17.6%. The group margin rose only to 16.1% from 14.2% because Maritime is no longer included.
- −2Capital allocationA dividend of NOK 5.70 per share gives an FCF payout of 118%. Cash fell from NOK 16.4bn to 4.9bn in Q2 after 5.0bn of dividends, about 4.5bn for acquisitions etc. (mainly Zone 5, price not disclosed) and 1.0bn of bond redemptions.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−22 of −35
- −13Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 33.8 (NTM) and about 41 on 2026E EPS vs 20.9–24.7 in 2021–23, 37.3 in 2024 and 28.8 in 2025. EV/EBITDA 33.8 and EV/EBIT 41.5 vs 13.7–19.0 and 17.0–22.8 in 2021–23. P/S 7.7 vs 1.8–2.3 before 2024. The stock trades near the top of its history after the multiple has tripled since 2023.
- −4PeersForward P/E 33.8 and EV/EBITDA 33.8 are in line with Saab (36.3 and 28.6) but far above Rheinmetall (forward P/E 21–26) and Northrop Grumman (17.3). There is no discount, and the sector is itself richly valued.
- −5Absolute price levelFCF yield 2.2% (TTM) and earnings yield about 2.4% on 2026E at a market value of NOK 274bn. Analysts expect only NOK 5.3bn of FCF for 2026 (about 1.9%) vs 10.4bn in 2025.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−14 of −35
- −4Macro and peace risk77% of the order book is in Defence Systems and Missiles & Aerostructures, and the case rests on NATO rearmament and support for Ukraine (NASAMS). A ceasefire or budget pressure would hit both volume and the multiple. The stock is −4.6% in a year and below its 200-day average.
- −3Customer concentrationCustomers are almost exclusively states: the Norwegian armed forces, the US (JSM, NSM framework with the US Marine Corps) and NASAMS countries such as Kuwait. The states decide orders, timing and prepayments; the share per customer is not disclosed.
- −3Supply chain and executionManagement itself calls security of supply the main risk – not demand – in the middle of a capacity build-out across several plants. Subcontractor Kitron reports allocation of memory chips, processors and circuit boards into H2.
- −2Acquisition risk (Zone 5)90% of the US missile start-up Zone 5 was bought in June 2026 at an undisclosed price. Management talks about over NOK 10bn of annual revenue in the medium term from missiles that are not yet in series production – an unproven bet with integration risk.
- −2Governance and state ownershipThe Norwegian state has kept the majority in both Kongsberg Gruppen and Kongsberg Maritime; the free float is only 411m of 880m shares. Minority shareholders have limited influence, and export policy is set politically.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Order bookRecord order book of NOK 157.5bn (about 4.4 times TTM revenue) after order intake of NOK 17.1bn in Q2 (book-to-bill 1.6), including the Joint Strike Missile for NOK 10.9bn to Canada, Germany and the US Air Force.
- +1Net cash and return on capitalNet cash of NOK 1.7bn even after the Q2 dividend and acquisitions; ROIC 43.7% and debt/EBITDA 0.43.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Kongsberg Maritime was spun off on 22/4/2026 (1 KMAR share per KOG share) and trades separately as KMAR. What remains is a pure defence and technology company (Defence Systems, Missiles & Aerostructures, Discovery). stockanalysis' 2024–25 figures in the forecast are restated for continuing operations, but the 2021–23 ratio history and TTM net income (NOK 7.34bn) include Maritime until April, so trailing P/E 52, ROE and a net margin of 20.5% are distorted. Equity fell to NOK 13.1bn at the spin-off, so P/B 21 cannot be compared with history. The clean measure is a forward P/E of about 41 on 2026E EPS of 7.38 (EPS falls 18% due to the spin-off). Historical prices are adjusted for the 1:5 split (June 2025) and the spin-off. Net cash rests on customer prepayments (negative working capital −NOK 5.2bn). Insider trades have not been examined thoroughly.
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