Rankings Commodities & uranium Metsä Board
Metsä Board
52
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−9
- Absolute price level−5
- Debt and liquidity−5
Strengths
- Efficiency programme+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 52, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.99 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 3.15 EUR
- Upside to median
- +5.4%
- Analysts
- 6
- Target range
- 2.60 – 4.50 EUR
- 52-week change
- +1%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 20.6
- PEG
- 14.74
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−20 of −30
- −9MarginOperating margin −4.3% and net margin −8.9% TTM (net loss EUR 149m) vs 11.4% operating margin in 2021–2022. Gross margin has fallen from 30.6% to 20.7%, and ROIC is −3.6%.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from EUR 2.49bn (2022) to EUR 1.67bn TTM (-11.7% in the latest year), and analysts expect -5.8% in 2026. Sales to the USA fell from 515 to 356m EUR (2022-2025).
- −4Capital allocationFrom a net cash of 77 m EUR (2021) to a net debt of 341 m EUR after large investments in Husum; the dividend has been cut from 0.58 EUR (2022) to 0. The Husum factory is still loss-making.
- −3MoatPaperboard (folding boxboard and white kraftliner) is a commodity-like product with overcapacity; the price follows demand, and the company did not earn its cost of capital even in 2023–2024 (ROIC 1.3–1.6%).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−8 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyP/B 0.70 and P/S 0.69 are below 2021–2023 (1.25–1.67 and 1.27–1.48), but forward P/E 39 and EV/EBITDA 167 TTM: the low price on book and sales reflects that earnings are gone.
- −2PeersForward P/E 39 vs Stora Enso 17.0, Holmen 19.9 and UPM 14.7; P/B 0.70 is in line with Stora Enso (0.67) and Holmen (0.89). No discount relative to Nordic forest and paper peers.
- −5Absolute price levelEarnings yield −12.9%. The FCF yield of 8.7% is due to a one-off release of working capital (EUR 218m); consensus expects only EUR 33m FCF in 2026 (2.9%). No dividend.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−11 of −35
- −4Bulk prices and Husum stopQ3 is markedly hit by a long market-related stop at Husum in July and a negative contribution from Metsä Fibre due to maintenance and low capacity utilisation in the pulp market; volume and operating cash flow are expected only at the Q2 level.
- −5Debt and liquidityNet debt/EBITDA 6.9x (−0.2x in 2021), interest cover −3.3, Altman Z-score 1.56 and Piotroski 3. Operating cash flow was −EUR 61.8m in H1 2026.
- −2Governance and controlThe Metsäliitto cooperative (Metsä Group) is the main shareholder with a voting majority and is at the same time a supplier of wood and owner of Metsä Fibre; insiders own 0.06%, institutions 6%. Minority shareholders have little influence.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Efficiency programmeComparable operating profit turned positive in Q2 (EUR 3.1m vs −22.7m), comparable EBITDA margin 7.0% (1.3%); the programme has reached about EUR 135m annual run-rate of the EUR 200m target in 2027, and board prices rose towards the end of H1.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The B share in Helsinki. Figures through Q2 2026 (TTM June 2026); Q3 comes 29/10-2026. Stockanalysis shows an 8.6% decline in share count, but there are no buybacks (it is due to how A and B shares are counted) – not used as a plus. FCF TTM is lifted by a working capital release of EUR 218m; H1 operating cash flow was −EUR 61.8m. Cartonboard producer placed under Commodities & uranium like UPM.
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