Rankings Commodities & uranium MP Materials
MP Materials
33
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−28
- Margin−9
- Cash flow−6
Strengths
- Price floor+5
- Customers+2
- Net cash+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 33, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 38.35 USD
- Median analyst target
- 65.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +70.8%
- Analysts
- 19
- Target range
- 53.00 – 100.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −39%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 143.5
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−16 of −30
- −9MarginOperating margin −17.8% TTM and a net loss of $61m (ROIC −4.1%, counted only here). Improved from −45.6% in 2025 and −79.8% in 2024, but far from 50–64% in 2021–22, when concentrate was sold to China.
- −3Quality of earningsIn Q2, $17.6m of the $28.5m adjusted EBITDA (about 62%) came from the PPA revenue, which is the government's NdPr price floor; $59.9m in H1. Without the floor, operations would still be roughly break-even.
- −4Future segmentThe magnet segment had revenue of only $16.5m in Q2. The Independence plant started in December 2025 but is still in customer qualification, and for the 10X plant neither the final price nor the timeline is disclosed in the accounts.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−28 of −35
- −28Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 110 vs its own forward history of 25–294 (2021–25; 53 in 2021, 25 in 2022, 60 in 2023); P/S 19.9 vs 8.2–32.5; EV/EBITDA 192; P/B 4.2 vs 2.4–8.0. Even on the 2027 estimate (EPS $0.87) the P/E is 53. Mid-range of its own bubble range, but extreme for a loss-making commodity producer.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−23 of −35
- −6Cash flowFCF −$505m TTM (capex $421m, $308m in H1 alone for 10X). Cash fell from $1.83bn to 1.45bn in H1, and analysts expect FCF of −$515m for 2026.
- −4Insider tradingCEO James Litinsky has sold about 2.1m shares for about $137m since November 2025 (most recently 185,167 shares at $69 on 3/6). The CFO and general counsel have also sold; only the COO has bought ($1.5m).
- −3DilutionThe share count has risen 8.3% in a year after the $747.5m share issue and the government's preferred shares/warrants; stock-based pay of $41m TTM.
- −3Competition (China)China accounts for about 94% of the world's sintered NdFeB magnets and can push prices down; without the price floor MP would compete against state-backed producers.
- −3Customer concentration and governmentThe Department of Defense is the largest shareholder, takes all 10X output and pays the price floor. The value depends on one political counterparty and on the deal surviving changing administrations.
- −2Shenghe/Chinese ownershipReuters reported on 18/9 that state-owned China Rare Earth Group is negotiating to take over Shenghe, which owns about 3% of MP and is the only distributor of MP's concentrate in China. Shenghe calls the story false, but the matter is unresolved.
- −2ExecutionMagnet production at Independence is still in qualification, and the first GM deliveries are only expected in Q4 2026. The Jefferies conference on 9/9 brought no new catalysts, and Freedom Capital initiated at Hold ($57 target) on 16/9.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+8 of +15
- +5Price floorA 10-year NdPr price floor of $110/kg and guaranteed EBITDA from 10X; the floor delivered $59.9m of PPA revenue in H1 2026.
- +2CustomersThe Apple deal (up to $500m), a new long-term gadolinium deal with a US defence customer and Project Swarm with several drone makers. NdPr sales rose 127% to 1,006 t in Q2.
- +1
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Losses and −$0.5bn FCF; a large part of EBITDA is the government price floor. CEO Litinsky has sold shares for about $137m over 12 months. The magnet business is still in customer qualification (GM deliveries only in Q4 2026), and Reuters' story that China Rare Earth Group will take over Shenghe (3% owner and sole offtaker in China) has been denied by Shenghe.
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