Rankings Commodities & uranium Neo Performance Materials
Neo Performance Materials
65
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−12
- Margin and ROIC−6
- FCF yield−5
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Raw-material supply outside China+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 65, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 24.74 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 52.53 CAD
- Upside to median
- +112.3%
- Analysts
- 6
- Target range
- 47.81 – 63.08 CAD
- 52-week change
- +28%
- P/E (trailing)
- 503.5
- Forward P/E
- 13.0
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−14 of −30
- −6Margin and ROICOperating margin 13.6% TTM, but net margin only 0.3% and ROIC 0.8% (−16.7% in 2025, −24.2% in 2024, −10.3% in 2023). The company has not earned its cost of capital (WACC about 11%) since 2022.
- −4Quality of earningsIn Q2, $44.4m of $57.0m adjusted EBITDA (78%) came from Rare Metals at record prices for hafnium, gallium and tantalum. The magnet business Magnequench, which is the magnet story itself, contributed only $10.5m.
- −3Future segmentThe magnet plant in Narva (Estonia, 2,000 t/year) opened in September 2025 but still ships only qualification samples; 2–3 customer programmes are to enter commercial production in 2026, and the Bosch deal is only an MOU.
- −1Capital allocationThe dividend has been raised to C$0.10 per quarter (payout 842% of net profit), even though FCF is negative and net debt is funded with new loans and a share issue.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−17 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 15.4 vs its own forward history of 10.2–20.5 (2021–25), but P/S 1.74 vs 0.43–1.21, P/B 2.2 vs 0.56–1.51 and EV/EBITDA 11.5 vs 3.0–11.1 – all record highs. The share price is +58% in a year, and the forward estimate rests on peak prices for hafnium and gallium.
- −5FCF yieldFCF −C$154m TTM (FCF yield −10.4%) because of inventory build-up at high metal prices; analysts expect only about $50m of FCF for all of 2026 (about 5% of market value).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −4Cash flow, debt and dilutionOperating cash flow was −$49.6m in H1 because of strategic inventory; gross debt $157m (net debt about $61m), a C$115.1m share issue in May 2026 (share count +11% in one quarter), Altman Z 2.3.
- −3China exposureMagnequench still produces in Tianjin and Chuzhou in China, and China's licence requirement on exports of rare earths and magnets (since April 2025) also hits Neo's own Chinese plants and raw-material sourcing.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceAdjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 raised to $140–150m from 100–110m, with the high end expected – almost double the $76m of 2025.
- +1Raw-material supply outside ChinaTechnical partner and offtaker for Rainbow Rare Earths' project in South Africa (Sept 2026) and its own HRE separation line in Estonia (April 2026) strengthen supply outside China.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Price in CAD, accounts in USD (stockanalysis' statistics page converts to CAD, financials are in USD). TTM net income is almost zero despite operating profit of $82m due to tax and one-offs from 2025 (including the sale of the Chinese separation plants); the forward P/E rests on adjusted EPS. The company is not a pure commodity producer: Magnequench partly works with pass-through pricing, but 78% of EBITDA now comes from hafnium, gallium and tantalum at record prices, hence cyclical. 'Commodities & uranium' was chosen as the closest industry for an integrated processor of rare earths and specialty metals. Insider trading has not been examined.
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