Rankings Commodities & uranium Nordic Mining
Nordic Mining
18
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Debt, liquidity and dilution−16
- EV vs assets and sales−12
- Margin−10
Strengths
- Permit+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 1
- Price
- 0.87 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 77m
- Cash runway
- 0 months
- Cash / debt
- 150.0 / 1,490.0m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +7%
Bull case
The restructuring is adopted with an issue price close to the current price, the mine reaches design capacity (DFS: about USD 70m annual FCF), and the rutile/garnet quality is resolved. An asset valued at the 2022 DFS NPV8 of USD 453m spread across a greatly expanded share base can still give a price above today's – but only if the old shareholders are allowed to subscribe at the same price as the new ones.
Bear case
The creditors convert the debt and the new capital is subscribed at down to NOK 0.012; existing shareholders are diluted to almost zero. If the restructuring fails, bankruptcy or a sale of the mine follows, with shareholders last in line behind NOK 1.49bn of debt.
Catalysts
- 13 Oct 2026Extraordinary general meeting on the financial restructuring (debt conversion and USD 80m of new equity)binary news.cision.com
- 15 Oct 2026Expiry of bridge financing from the bondholders (USD 7.5m)binary boerse-global.de
- 3 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: production, product quality and new capital structuregradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026Resolution of the dispute over Barton's termination of the garnet offtake agreementbinary news.cision.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – the board itself writes that the debt is not sustainable and that the cash runs out in October; both bankruptcy and a debt conversion that dilutes shareholders by 90%+ are realistic outcomes.
Next financingUrgent: liquidity lasts to about mid-October 2026. A USD 7.5m bridge financing from the bondholders runs to 15/10/2026. The EGM on 13/10/2026 must approve a restructuring with a debt conversion and a new USD 80m share issue; otherwise there is a risk of bankruptcy or a sale of the company.
Warrants & convertiblesRealised dilution in the last 12 months +6.9% (directed issue of about NOK 200m). The real risk is the proposed restructuring: conversion of a substantial part of the USD 193.5m bond into shares plus new equity of USD 80m at NOK 0.012–10 per share. Even at NOK 1 per share it would give about 800m new shares (+640%) before the debt conversion; existing shareholders could end up with a few per cent or under 1%.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked). Insiders own about 0.4% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined. Institutions own about 43% according to stockanalysis; the bondholders (USD 193.5m) effectively become the new owners in a debt conversion.
Circio check(1) Small market value: yes – about DKK 77m. (2) Hot theme: partly – critical minerals (titanium) are in focus in the EU. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – the EGM on 13/10, but it is mainly a downside event. (4) Large partner: no – the offtake partner Barton has just terminated the agreement. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – the cash lasts until mid-October. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −92 to −94% in a year, but the bottom for shareholders could be zero.
Why this asymmetryThe mine is built and may have value, but the value goes to the creditors and the new investors. With debt at 13x market cap and an issue of about 7x market cap at as low as NOK 0.012, the downside for current shareholders is almost total. The price rise on 1/10 looks like speculation, not a changed risk profile.
How the score is built
From 100 to 18, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.47 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −97%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue only NOK 6.4m (TTM) vs operating loss of −NOK 582m and net result of −NOK 759m; gross profit is negative (−288m). In Q2 2026 no sales at all were recognised due to discussions about product quality.
- −7Quality of growthThe ramp-up of the Engebø mine is slower than planned: only 1,262 t rutile and 10,127 t garnet in Q2 2026, problems with rutile separation and garnet quality, and the production profile has been revised down. The timing of positive cash flow has been pushed back.
- −8Capital allocationThe mine was financed with a USD 193.5m bond on top of several share issues and a 1:20 reverse split (March 2024). Debt of about NOK 1.49bn is now 'not sustainable' according to the board; shareholders' capital is largely lost.
- −2MoatThe DFS (2022: post-tax NPV8 of USD 453m, IRR 24.4%) was based on quality products from a unique eclogite deposit; the actual quality problems with garnet and rutile show that the technological advantage is not yet proven in operation.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−22 of −35
- −12EV vs assets and salesMarket cap of only about NOK 111m, but EV of about NOK 1.45bn (EV/sales 227) owing to net debt of NOK 1.34bn. P/B 0.14 is falsely cheap: the equity is expected to be converted away by the creditors.
- −10FCF yieldFree cash flow −NOK 484m TTM (FCF yield about −435%); operating cash flow −NOK 446m. No earnings to price.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−29 of −35
- −16Debt, liquidity and dilutionThe board has called an EGM on 13/10/2026 on a sweeping restructuring: converting a significant part of the debt in Engebø Rutile and Garnet into shares and new equity of USD 80m (about 7x market value) at NOK 0.012–10 per share. Liquidity lasts until about mid-October; without a solution the company risks bankruptcy, and the board is asking for authority to sell all or part of the company.
- −7Customers and offtakeOn 30/9/2026 Barton Mines terminated the 2023 garnet offtake agreement with ERG; the company disputes the termination. If the mine loses its garnet customer in the middle of the ramp-up, the sales base and the restructuring are weakened.
- −3LawsuitsThe EPC contractor Nordic Bulk has sued ERG for about NOK 50m; ERG rejects the claim and points to defects.
- −3ManagementCEO Finn Ivar Marum steps down with immediate effect on 30/9/2026, in the middle of the restructuring; Otto Søberg is acting CEO from 7/10.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2PermitThe Ministry of Climate and Environment granted a temporary discharge permit for tailings on 30/9/2026, so operations can continue – removes an acute shutdown risk, but the permit is time-limited.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). The company is in acute financial restructuring (EGM 13/10/2026); the specific conversion terms of the USD 193.5m bond and the price in the new USD 80m share issue (range NOK 0.012–10) were not published in the sources found. The Nordnet price of NOK 1.27 (1/10) is about 43% above the closing price of NOK 0.89 on 30/9 on stockanalysis; Nordnet's market cap (DKK 77m) corresponds to NOK 0.89 x 125m shares. The very high turnover is due to the price collapse after the restructuring announcement (−12% 22/9 and −40% 23/9) and speculative trading after the news of 30/9 (temporary discharge permit, Barton's termination of the offtake agreement and CEO departure). Largest owners and insider trades not examined. Rutile/garnet fits 'Commodities & uranium'.
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