Rankings Oil & gas Sintana Energy
Sintana Energy
49
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Business model and time horizon−7
- Financing of the expansion−7
Strengths
- Large partners with carry+4
- Resource upgrade+2
- Net cash with no debt+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 5
- Price
- 1.60 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 897m
- Cash runway
- 19 months
- Cash / debt
- 21.8 / 0.0m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +47%
Bull case
TotalEnergies' appraisal confirms Mopane (1.4bn boe+), PEL 90 or PEL 82 gives a new discovery, and the market starts to price Sintana's approx. 67m net barrels at USD 4–6/boe as before an FID. That gives an EV of USD 270–400m (approx. CAD 380–570m) – 2–3x – and a discovery on PEL 90/82 could give more; analysts' targets are CAD 0.55–0.87.
Bear case
Dry wells on PEL 90 and a disappointing appraisal on Mopane, TotalEnergies postpones FID, and the share is priced only on cash and option value (approx. CAD 0.05–0.15, −60–85%). Even with success, the development share may force a large issue or a cheap divestment.
Catalysts
- H2 2026 – 2027TotalEnergies' three-well exploration and appraisal campaign on PEL 83 (Mopane), fully carriedbinary stocktitan.net
- End of 2026High-impact exploration well on PEL 90 (Namibia), Sintana fully fundedbinary energy-pedia.com
- 2027Chevron's high-impact well on PEL 82 (fully carried)binary energy-pedia.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – net cash, no debt and full carry protect the next 1–2 years, but with no revenue and binary drilling much of the value can disappear.
Next financingRestricted cash approx. USD 15.4m (CAD 21.8m) and spending of approx. USD 2.4m (CAD 3.4m) per quarter give approx. 19 months of runway; the Colombia settlement and Trinidad sale (approx. USD 6.75m) can extend it to approx. 2.5 years. The company says it is funded through the catalyst period, but the development of Mopane after FID (2028) requires large sums – a new issue or divestment is likely by 2027–28 at the latest.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles or debt. Stock options and RSUs to management (RSUs exercised 30/6-2026); warrants from the Q2 issue not found.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found (not systematically checked); exercise of restricted share units 30/6-2026. Insiders own c. 10% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersInsiders approx. 10%, institutions approx. 3% according to stockanalysis; individual major shareholders not investigated.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. C$193m (approx. DKK 900m). (2) Hot theme: yes – Namibia's Orange Basin is one of the hottest oil exploration areas. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – PEL 90 well before year-end and TotalEnergies' three wells. (4) Major partner: yes – TotalEnergies, Galp and Chevron. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial – approx. 19 months of runway (approx. 2.5 years with expected receipts), but not for the development. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – new 1-year low and −71% from the closing price at the end of 2024 (C$1.18).
Why this asymmetryThe one of the four most like Circio: hot theme, big partners, carried drilling programme and price at the bottom, so a discovery could give several times the money. But the stakes are small and indirect, first oil is in 2032, and the development share creates dilution risk, so 5 is the cap.
How the score is built
From 100 to 49, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.36 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −35%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−23 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue; operating loss of C$18.9m and net loss of C$14.2m TTM (ROE −24%, counted only here). The quarterly operating loss has doubled from US$2.1m (Q2 2025) to US$4.1m (Q2 2026) after the Challenger acquisition.
- −7Business model and time horizonOnly small, indirect minority stakes without operatorship: 4.9% of PEL 83 via 49% of Custos, plus stakes in PEL 82/90 (Namibia), AREA OFF-1 (Uruguay) and now Angola. Mopane has an FID target in 2028 and first oil in 2032 at the earliest - no cash flow for at least six years.
- −6Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 270m (2022) to 560m; Challenger Energy was bought for about 130m new shares, and the portfolio is now spreading to Angola (KON-16, 5%) and PEL 37, while G&A is rising.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −5Price per resourceEV about C$171m (about US$121m) corresponds to about US$1.8 per net barrel of 3C resource (about 67m boe in Mopane) - not cheap for contingent resources six years from first oil and with unresolved development financing; the other licenses are pure exploration.
- −2P/B vs historyP/B 2.2 vs 2.0–15.2 in 2022–25 – low vs its own history after a fall of 42% in a year, but book equity consists mostly of licences and goodwill from acquisitions (P/TBV 6.0).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−22 of −35
- −7Financing of the expansionThe carry from TotalEnergies covers the three-well exploration and appraisal programme on PEL 83, but a 4.9% share of a multi-billion development must be financed after FID in 2028 – via issue, loan or divestment.
- −6DilutionThe share count has risen about 47% in 12 months (380 → 560m) through the Challenger acquisition and an issue of about US$11.5m in Q2 2026.
- −5Binary drilling riskThe value rests on a few wells: an exploration well on PEL 90 before the end of 2026, TotalEnergies' three wells on PEL 83 and a PEL 82 well in 2027. The Orange Basin has also given dry/uncommercial wells (e.g. Shell's writedown on PEL 39 in 2024).
- −2Indirect ownershipThe main asset is owned through 49% of Custos Energy, so Sintana controls neither the licence nor the company that owns it.
- −2SentimentNew 1-year low 29/9-2026; -42% in a year, price below the 50- and 200-day averages (C$0.39 and 0.44), RSI 29.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +4Large partners with carryTotalEnergies (operator, 40%) and Galp on PEL 83, Chevron on PEL 82/90 and AREA OFF-1 in Uruguay; Sintana is fully carried for the planned wells and the 3D seismic acquired in Uruguay.
- +2Resource upgradeGalp upgraded Mopane's 3C resource 57% from 875 m to 1.38 bn boe gross (about 67 m boe net for Sintana).
- +1Net cash with no debtAbout US$16.1m in cash at 30/6-2026 and no debt; a further approx. US$6.75m is expected from the Colombia settlement and the sale of Trinidad assets.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Canada). Pure exploration stock with no revenue; the financial statement tables on stockanalysis are in USD, the statistics page in CAD (converted at US$1 ≈ C$1.418). Terms of the Q2 2026 issue (about US$11.5m, about 46m shares) are derived from share count and cash flow, not read in the announcement itself; any warrants have not been found. It is not clarified whether Custos/Sintana is carried after the FID on Mopane – assumed that the development share must be financed. Largest owners and insider trades beyond RSU exercise have not been investigated. Only 2 analysts.
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