Rankings Commodities & uranium Solvay
Solvay
49
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin and ROIC−6
- Quality of growth−5
- Moat−4
Strengths
- Strategic position in rare earths+1
- Cost savings+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 49, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 23.84 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 24.50 EUR
- Upside to median
- +2.8%
- Analysts
- 15
- Target range
- 20.00 – 28.50 EUR
- 52-week change
- −11%
- P/E (trailing)
- 814.4
- Forward P/E
- 10.5
- PEG
- 3.02
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−17 of −30
- −6Margin and ROICUnderlying EBITDA margin 18.1% in Q2, but operating margin only 8.0% and net margin 0.1% TTM. ROIC 0.95% vs 3.7% in 2025 and 15.3% in 2024.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue is shrinking: €5.13bn in 2024, 4.75bn in 2025 and an expected 4.11bn in 2026 (−13.5%); organic −8.0% in H1 and underlying EBITDA −19.5% organically in Q2.
- −4MoatGlobal oversupply of soda ash with Chinese exports at multi-year highs and high European energy and CO2 costs; Solvay is cutting capacity in Torrelavega (Spain) from 600 to 420 kt from Q3 2026.
- −2Future segmentRare earths are strategically interesting but small: only €15–20m of extra investment in La Rochelle, industrial separation of dysprosium and terbium only starts in autumn 2026, and the Viridis deal is a letter of intent.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 10.2 vs its own forward history of 6.3–11.4 (2021–25) and EV/EBITDA 6.5 vs 2.9–6.95 – at the upper end while earnings fall (EPS expected −18% in 2026). P/B 2.3 and P/TBV 35 after the spin-off. Consensus is 'Sell' with a target about equal to the price.
- −3FCF yieldThe 17% FCF yield TTM is historical; guidance is only FCF of at least €200m for 2026 (about 7.8% of the €2.58bn market value), and FCF was just €15m in H1 (−84%).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−9 of −35
- −4Dividend above FCFThe dividend of €2.43 per share (about €254m, 9.8% yield) is larger than FCF guidance of at least €200m; Bernstein warns the dividend will not be covered by FCF in 2026, and Berenberg has downgraded to Sell.
- −3DebtUnderlying net debt €1.8bn and leverage 2.3x EBITDA (3.2x on S&P's figures); debt/equity 2.0 and interest cover 3.7.
- −2Geopolitics (Middle East)A temporary shutdown of the peroxide plant in Saudi Arabia because of the Middle East conflict accounted for about half of the EBITDA decline in Q2.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Strategic position in rare earthsLa Rochelle is one of Europe's largest rare-earth separation plants and one of the few outside China able to separate the full spectrum of elements at industrial scale.
- +1Cost savingsStructural savings of about €300m accumulated, and 2026 guidance (underlying EBITDA of €770–850m) confirmed despite a weak market.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Industry: the list has no chemicals category. 'Commodities & uranium' was chosen as the closest because the largest division (Basic Chemicals: soda ash from natural trona and peroxides) is a commodity-price business, and earnings follow the soda ash price; hence also cyclical. Rare earths (La Rochelle) are a small part of the group, so the share is only a very diluted exposure to the magnet theme. History before 2024 includes Syensqo (spun off Dec. 2023) and is only partly comparable; TTM net income (€4m) is distorted by one-offs and a 92% tax rate. Pension liabilities and credit rating have not been examined.
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