Rankings Commodities & uranium ASP Isotopes
ASP Isotopes
42
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Debt and financing needs−7
- Quality of growth−6
Strengths
- Large gross cash+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 42, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.94 USD
- Median analyst target
- 13.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +570.1%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 11.00 – 15.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −81%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −12MarginOperating loss USD 96.4m TTM on revenue of 30.9m (operating margin −312%); Q2 2026: gross profit 1.5m on revenue of 5.1m and operating expenses of 35.7m. The loss is counted only here.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue growth is bought: PET Labs, Renergen and construction services (18.2m in 2025, now divested/deconsolidated Skyline). The core business, enriched isotopes, has no commercial deliveries yet; the first C-14, Si-28 and Yb-176 deliveries have been pushed to H2 2026.
- −6Capital allocationShare count rose 60% over a year (including 14.27m shares to Renergen), and the structure is becoming ever more complex: QLE convertibles swapped for ASPI shares, planned QLE listing and Renergen listing via reverse merger with ENDRA Life Sciences (ASPI owns approx. 89%).
- −3MoatThe aerodynamic/laser-based enrichment technology is unproven at commercial scale, and Renergen has a weak track record: only 52.6 kg of liquid helium was produced in March 2025, after which production stopped, and earlier phase 1 targets were never met.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyP/B 1.30 versus 2.26 (2025), 6.32 (2024) and 4.6-5.5 (2022-23); EV/Sales 13.6 versus 25.8 (2025) and 75 (2024). The lowest level in the company's history, but book value consists mainly of plant in South Africa and cash that is being burned.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−24 of −35
- −7Debt and financing needsTotal debt of USD 269.5m at 30 Jun 2026, of which convertible loans at fair value of USD 203.4m and short-term debt of USD 54.5m due within 12 months; net debt of USD 14.7m. Cash fell from USD 334.6m to USD 254.9m over two quarters. Phase 2 of the Virginia gas project requires about USD 1.16bn, and DFC (up to USD 500m) and Standard Bank (up to USD 250m) have given only non-binding commitments.
- −4Insider selling17 insider sales and no purchases in 12 months; CEO Paul Mann has sold 413,428 shares for approx. 2.9m USD in six months and has filed a Form 144 for the sale of up to 1,441,361 shares.
- −4ExecutionHelium from Renergen's phase 1 only entered commissioning on 20 Aug 2026 with first delivery promised in September; only 15% of helium production and 75% of LNG was covered by take-or-pay contracts. First delivery is not confirmed, and the stock is −46% over 3 months.
- −3Governance and complex structureInternal convertible loans between ASPI and QLE (approx. 141m USD), several subsidiaries to be listed separately, and fair-value adjustments of convertibles make the result hard to read and increase the risk of conflicts of interest.
- −2LawsuitsASP Isotopes has entered a settlement to pay 9.35m USD to end a shareholder lawsuit (requires court approval).
- −2Short interest26.1m shares sold short: 17.0% of shares and 19.6% of free float (7.2 days to cover).
- −2Country riskThe key assets (enrichment plant in Pretoria, PET Labs, Renergen's Virginia field) are in South Africa, with exposure to power supply, regulation and currency risk.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Large gross cashCash and short-term investments of 254.9m USD as of 30 Jun 2026 (approx. 63% of market cap); management expects to be able to fund operations for more than 12 months.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny deep dive (the price is above DKK 3). Holding company with isotope enrichment (C-14, Si-28, Yb-176, Mo-100), nuclear fuel via the subsidiary Quantum Leap Energy (QLE, HALEU/LEU), PET Labs (medical isotopes in South Africa) and Renergen (helium and LNG in South Africa, bought Jan. 2026). A price of USD 2.65 (9/10-2026) and 153.3m shares at 14/8-2026 give a market cap of USD 406m (DKK 2,675m; Nordnet showed 2,876). The latest report is Q2 2026 (10-Q). The notes on the convertible loans (principal, interest, conversion price), Renergen's DFC/IDC loans, ATM program and warrants could not be read in the 10-Q extract; debt is therefore stated from the balance sheet only. It is not confirmed whether first commercial helium was delivered in September 2026, or what came out of the Capital Markets Day 8/9. The sector does not quite fit; industry is set to the closest (Commodities & uranium), and cyclical is set to false, because there are not yet earnings that follow a commodity cycle. Analyst price targets of USD 11-15 (+315-466%) are probably outdated.
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