Rankings Commodities & uranium Defense Metals
Defense Metals
55
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Financing of the construction−10
- Dilution and warrants−6
Strengths
- Insider buying+3
- State backing+1
- Debt-free balance sheet+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 0.60 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 238m
- Cash runway
- 7 months
- Cash / debt
- 9.1 / 0.2m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +36%
Bull case
The West keeps paying USD 110–130/kg for non-Chinese NdPr, NRCan grants up to CAD 32m, and a strategic partner (carmaker, magnet maker or defence) takes a stake in Wicheeda. If the market prices the project at just 0.15–0.2x after-tax NPV (CAD 150–200m) vs approx. CAD 51m today, that is 3–4x – more if the state takes part of the capex.
Bear case
NdPr prices fall back towards USD 60–80/kg, the DFS drags on, and the company must raise C$10–20m a year at C$0.08–0.12 (+30–50% shares annually). With capex of C$1.4bn and no partner the share price could halve again.
Catalysts
- 2026-11-27 (estimated)Q2 FY2027 results (to 30/9) – cash and status of the DFSgradual stockanalysis.com
- Oct. 2026Closing of the placement of up to C$6m at C$0.14 with a lead order from the chairmangradual miningstockeducation.com
- No date givenNRCan decision on up to C$32m for the feasibility program for the concentrator and hydrometallurgybinary investornews.com
Risk of going to zerolow to medium - proven reserves, a debt-free balance sheet, insider buying and state interest make bankruptcy unlikely in the next couple of years, but ongoing dilution is almost certain.
Next financingCash of C$9.1m at 30/6-2026 and spending of approx. C$3.7m per quarter (operations + capitalized studies). The placement of up to C$6m at C$0.14 (announced 23/9-2026, not confirmed closed) extends runway to approx. summer 2027. The DFS and the environmental assessment require more capital; NRCan support of up to C$32m would reduce dilution if granted. The mine itself (capex C$1.4bn) requires a strategic partner, the state and debt.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found. New placement (announced 23/9-2026): up to 21.4m warrants at C$0.21 for 36 months plus finder warrants of up to 7% of units. Warrants from the 2025 placements (incl. C$16.2m in Dec. 2025) are not quantified.
Insiders, last 12 monthsChairman Guy de Selliers has bought shares in the market (2025) and is expected to subscribe about C$500,000 in the placement at C$0.14 (Sep 2026); directors and management took part in the C$16.2m placement in Dec 2025. No insider sales found (SEDI not checked).
Largest ownersInsiders approx. 5.9% (including chairman Guy de Selliers), institutions approx. 1.8% (stockanalysis). Other major shareholders not found.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. C$51m. (2) Hot theme: yes – rare earths and defense magnets outside China. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – NRCan decision and DFS, but without dates. (4) Major partner: no – only non-binding interest from EDC and NRCan. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 7 months plus the new placement. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – market cap has fallen from C$88m (March 2026) to C$51m, and P/B is the lowest in five years.
Why this asymmetryOne of the few Western rare earth deposits with proven reserves and a PFS, traded at 0.04x NPV and below book value, with insider buying. But capex of C$1.4bn is 27 times the market cap, so shareholders will be heavily diluted before a mine arrives.
How the score is built
From 100 to 55, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.10 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 0.60 CAD
- Upside to median
- +531.6%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 0.50 – 0.70 CAD
- 52-week change
- −71%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−18 of −30
- −12MarginNo revenue; operating result −C$5.3m and net result −C$6.0m TTM. Free cash flow −C$11.0m, because study and drilling expenses are capitalised (capex C$3.4–3.5m per quarter in 2026).
- −4Project maturityPFS (2025) with proven reserves: after-tax NPV8 approx. 1.0bn C$, after-tax IRR 18.9%, payback 3.7 years, cash cost 37.42 USD/kg NdPrO. That is far ahead of most juniors, but the DFS, which was to start in early 2026, still has no public timeline, and rare earths require complex processing (hydrometallurgy), where Western projects have often failed.
- −2Capital allocationCapital is raised continuously in small tranches (C$16.2m in Dec. 2025, now C$6m at C$0.14 – below the December level), without a strategic partner that could carry the study costs.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Valuation vs history and NPVP/B 0.85 vs 1.05–1.94 in FY2022–26 – the lowest in five years – and EV approx. CAD 42m vs an after-tax NPV of approx. CAD 1.0bn (approx. 0.04x). Cheap, but the discount reflects that capex is approx. 27 times the market value.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−22 of −35
- −10Financing of the constructionInitial capex of C$1.4bn – approx. 27 times market cap. EDC's letter of interest for up to USD 250m is non-binding and covers only a small part; without a strategic partner or a state as co-owner, construction means extreme dilution.
- −6Dilution and warrantsThe share count has risen 36% over a year (395.2m shares). The new placement of up to 42.9m units at C$0.14 with half warrants at C$0.21 (36 months) gives a further about 11% shares plus up to 21.4m warrants and 7% finder warrants.
- −4Burn and runwayCash has fallen from C$16.5m (Dec. 2025) to C$9.1m (June 2026), and spending incl. capitalized study costs is approx. C$3.5–4m per quarter – approx. 7 months of runway before the new placement. Current liabilities rose to C$6.0m.
- −2Price dependence (NdPr)The PFS assumes 132.70 USD/kg NdPr in 2030; the international price was 128.75 USD/kg in the company's latest update. The economics thus rest on the high Western prices holding, and China can press prices by increasing supply.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +3Insider buyingChairman Guy de Selliers has bought shares in the market and is placing a lead order of about C$500,000 in the new placement at C$0.14; directors and management also took part in the December placement.
- +1State backingLetter of interest from Export Development Canada for up to USD 250m in project financing, invitation from NRCan to a full proposal of up to C$32m and conditional commitment of up to C$1.88m for infrastructure. Only the last is an actual commitment.
- +1
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). Developer of the Wicheeda rare earths deposit (NdPr) near Prince George in British Columbia; 2025 PFS with proven reserves. Fiscal year to 31/3; latest quarter Q1 FY2027 (to 30/6-2026). Market cap 395.15m shares × 0.13 C$ = 51.4m C$ (approx. 238m DKK, same as Nordnet). The announced placement of up to 6m C$ (23/9-2026) is not confirmed completed. PFS details (reserve tonnage, mine life, whether the hydrometallurgy is included in capex) have not been read in the technical report. The date of the NRCan decision on up to 32m C$ was not found. The full warrant register and insider trades in SEDI have not been checked. No analyst coverage (forecast 404).
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