Rankings Commodities & uranium Gunnison Copper
Gunnison Copper
52
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin and cash flow−9
- Funding gap−8
- History and technology risk−6
Strengths
- Large partner and offtaker+4
- Milestone reached+2
- Resource+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.14 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,080m
- Cash runway
- 13 months
- Cash / debt
- 35.6 / 2.8m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +40%
Bull case
Johnson Camp proves the Nuton technology at full scale, column tests at Gunnison show good recovery, and a major or DOE funding secures the project. If the stock is re-rated from 0.25x to 0.6–0.8x NAV (US$1.96bn NPV), that corresponds to a market cap of approx. C$1.6–2.2bn before dilution – theoretically 3–5x, but after the necessary issues more like 2–3x. Analysts' targets are C$1.00–1.60.
Bear case
Column tests disappoint (low extraction/high acid consumption), the copper price falls, or Rio Tinto deprioritizes Nuton. The company would then have to raise money at a low price to fund drilling and PFS, and the stock could fall to C$0.15-0.25 (-50-70%), as before the copper theme.
Catalysts
- 13 Nov 2026Q3 2026 results (estimated) – first quarter with commercial production at Johnson Campgradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026Preliminary column leach results from the Gunnison project (recovery and acid consumption)binary discoveryalert.com
- End of 2026Johnson Camp at nameplate (25m lbs/year) and approval of the Mined Land Reclamation Plangradual stocktitan.net
- H1 2028PFS for the Gunnison project and changed key permitsgradual stocktitan.net
Risk of going to zeromedium – producing mine financed by Rio Tinto and a large resource, but own cash lasts only approx. a year, equity is negative, and the project requires US$1.6bn.
Next financingOwn cash about US$25.1m (C$35.6m; Nuton funds of US$8.2m are earmarked for Johnson Camp) and a burn of about US$2m/month give about 12–13 months of runway, i.e. to about Q3 2027. Possible extra sources: 48C tax credit (about US$8m, requires DOE approval). A new issue or strategic partner is likely in H1 2027; the build-out of Gunnison (about US$1.6bn) requires government debt (DOE) and a major partner.
Warrants & convertiblesGreenstone's convertible bonds (US$5.3m) are eliminated after Q2 2026. Warrants from the Q2 2026 bought deal (82.1m shares at C$0.42) not found. Stock options for management. Triple Flag/Altius have a royalty/stream on the projects with a buy-back option on change of control.
Insiders, last 12 monthsMajor shareholder Greenstone sold/distributed about 113m shares in 2026 (from 33.9% to about 7%), and director Michael Haworth stepped down in connection with this. No insider purchases found (not systematically checked). New CFO (Jennifer Hays) from 12/10-2026.
Largest ownersGreenstone about 7% (after the sale); insiders about 2.5%, institutions about 3.3% according to stockanalysis. Other major shareholders not investigated.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. C$233m (approx. DKK 1.1bn). (2) Hot theme: yes – US copper for data centers/electrification. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – column tests from Q4 2026, nameplate and PFS. (4) Major partner: yes – Rio Tinto (Nuton) and AWS agreement. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 12–13 months of own runway. (6) Price near the bottom: no – +28% in a year and over 3x from the 2023 level.
Why this asymmetryLarge resource, Rio Tinto as partner and low P/NAV give real multi-bagger potential if the metallurgy holds, but the stock has already risen sharply, own cash lasts only about a year, and the road to a US$1.6bn project goes through several issues.
How the score is built
From 100 to 52, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.38 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 1.30 CAD
- Upside to median
- +246.7%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 1.00 – 1.60 CAD
- 52-week change
- −3%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−21 of −30
- −9Margin and cash flowNet loss C$23.1m and operating cash flow −C$92m TTM; the positive Q2 earnings (US$13.1m) are partly based on US$9.8m of deferred demonstration revenue from Nuton, and only US$13.7m was sales of cathode copper. Equity has been negative since 2023 (−C$25m).
- −6History and technology riskLike Excelsior Mining, the company tried to put Gunnison into operation with in-situ leaching, which did not reach commercial production; now the strategy builds on open pit, heap leach and Nuton's sulphide leaching, which is only now being proven at full scale at Johnson Camp (capacity 25m lbs/year, i.e. about 11,000 t).
- −6Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 275m (2022) to 505m, and market value fell 2021–23 before the copper theme lifted it; value has so far been created with partner money and new shares, not own earnings.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6ValuationAccounting multiples are meaningless (negative equity, EV/EBITDA 14.8 on inflated EBITDA). Market cap has risen from C$44m (2023) to C$233m (+81% in 2026); P/NAV of about 0.25x vs 0.8–0.9x for Faraday and Ivanhoe Electric looks cheap, but NAV is based on a PEA with US$1.6bn capex and a PFS only in 2028.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−22 of −35
- −8Funding gapThe Gunnison project requires about US$1.6bn in start-up capital; the company's own cash (about US$25m excluding Nuton funds) lasts about 12 months at about US$2m/month, and the drilling programme has been expanded from two to six rigs (about US$15m).
- −6DilutionThe share count has risen about 40% in 12 months (361 → 505m), including a bought deal of C$34.5m (82.1m shares at C$0.42) in Q2 2026; more issues are likely before project financing.
- −4Dependence on NutonNuton (Rio Tinto) has funded over US$167m of Johnson Camp and receives the operating profit until the investment is paid back (4-5 years); until then very little of the mine's cash flow accrues to Gunnison's shareholders, and the plan depends on Rio Tinto continuing.
- −3Metallurgy and permitsCopper extraction and acid consumption are the key questions for lenders and partners; column tests only come from Q4 2026 to mid-2027, and key permits are expected to be amended in H1 2028.
- −1OverhangFormer major shareholder Greenstone (33.9%) has sold/distributed most of its stake in 2026 and then owned about 7%, which can still come onto the market.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +4Large partner and offtakerRio Tinto's Nuton has fully funded Johnson Camp (over US$167m), and Rio Tinto and AWS have agreed to buy copper from the mine for US data centres.
- +2Milestone reachedJohnson Camp reached commercial production on 22/9-2026 after record production of 1.30m lbs of cathode copper in August.
- +1ResourceGunnison has 846m t of measured and indicated resource at 0.33% Cu (5.19bn lbs); the PEA shows an after-tax NPV8 of US$1.96bn and IRR of 22.5% at US$4.60/lb.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Canada). The accounts are in USD (stockanalysis' statistics page in CAD; converted at US$1 ≈ C$1.418). The reported revenue and the positive result in Q2 2026 include US$9.8m of deferred 'demonstration revenue' from Nuton, and equity is negative – stockanalysis' P/B, EV/EBITDA and margins are therefore misleading. Revenue growth (about 5,800% TTM) is due to the start-up from almost zero. The precise terms of Nuton's repayment (waterfall) are known only from mentions, not from the agreement itself. The Gunnison project is based on a PEA (March 2026), not a PFS/FS. The largest owners after Greenstone's exit and insider trades otherwise have not been investigated. Only 2 analysts.
Also in Commodities & uranium
The highest scores in the same industry.
