Rankings Commodities & uranium Paladin Energy
Paladin Energy
64
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Absolute price level, NAV and peers−8
- PLS: funding and timeline−6
- Margin−5
Strengths
- Execution+2
- Pipeline+2
- Net cash+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 64, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 7.19 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −17%
- P/E (trailing)
- 420.0
- Forward P/E
- 50.9
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−18 of −30
- −5MarginFY26: gross margin 24%, operating margin 9% and a net loss of 9.1 m USD. Production cost was 43.3 USD/lb vs a realized price of 70 USD/lb, in Q4 51.6 USD/lb, and FY27 guidance is 44–48 USD/lb. Thin margin for a pure producer with uranium around 90 USD/lb.
- −4ROICROIC 2.9% vs a WACC of 12.4%; ROE −1%. The capital from the restart and the Fission purchase does not yet yield a return.
- −4Capital allocation and dilutionThe share count has risen 24.9% over a year (share-paid purchase of Fission and an issue of AUD 300m in September 2025) after −17% the year before. FCF was −USD 28m in FY26, and analysts expect continued negative FCF in FY27 (−15m).
- −3Quality of growthFY27 guidance for Langer Heinrich is 5.1–5.6 m lb, weighted toward the second half and slightly below analysts' expectation of about 5.8 m lb. The mine thus still does not reach its intended capacity of about 6 m lb a year two years after the restart.
- −2MoatOnly one producing asset (75% of Langer Heinrich in Namibia), with a cost of USD 44-48/lb, mid-curve on the cost curve and above Kazatomprom's AISC of about USD 40/lb. The low-cost mine that is to create the moat (PLS) lies in 2031 at the earliest.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−12 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 39 vs 35–55 (FY24–26); P/B 2.5 vs 2.6–6.3 (FY22–26); EV/EBITDA 30 vs 36 (FY26); P/S 8.6 vs 9.5–11.9. At the bottom of its own history, but the history is from before and during the start-up, when earnings were zero or negative.
- −8Absolute price level, NAV and peersEV about CAD 3.46bn (about USD 2.5bn) and trailing P/E about 490. EV/EBITDA 30 vs 7.3 for Kazatomprom. PLS' NPV of USD 1.3bn at USD 90/lb requires USD 1.2bn in capex before it gives cash flow, so the price assumes full value for a project without a construction permit.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−11 of −35
- −6PLS: funding and timelineFinal investment decision (FID) is targeted for the end of 2027, and the CNSC protocol to conclude the consultation on the construction permit before the end of 2027 is not binding. Capex of USD 1,226m is about half of market cap, so financing could mean dilution or debt. Métis Nation–Saskatchewan has filed a case over inadequate consultation against the provincial environmental approval.
- −3LawsuitsClass action (Slater and Gordon, Supreme Court of Victoria) over overly optimistic guidance in 2024 for shareholders who bought between 27/6 and 11/11-2024; a second lawsuit for the period up to 25/3-2025 has been announced. Paladin will defend itself.
- −2Operations in NamibiaGuidance was cut in November 2024 to 3.0–3.6m lb because of water supply and variable ore grade. For FY27, costs are expected at the top of the range early in the year because all ore is now run from the main pit instead of from stockpiles.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2ExecutionFY26 production of 4.82 m lb was at the top of guidance and the cost (43.3 USD/lb) at the bottom; revenue rose 71% to 304 m USD, and the ramp-up of Langer Heinrich is complete.
- +1Net cashCash and investments of USD 265m vs USD 179m of debt (net cash USD 86m) at 30/6-2026, plus an undrawn credit facility of USD 70m.
- +2PipelinePLS (Triple R, Saskatchewan): 90.9m lb over the mine life, cash cost 11.7 USD/lb and NPV 1,325m USD at 90 USD/lb. The province's environmental approval came in February 2026, and the CNSC has accepted the construction licence application as complete.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The primary listing is ASX (cannot be traded on Nordnet), so the analysis follows the TSX listing in CAD, which Nordnet has (search API 11/10-2026: PDN, CAD, TSX). Stockanalysis has no forecast page for the TSX listing (404); the 15 analysts (consensus Buy, price target AUD 13.49) are on quote/asx/PDN, so formula points for upside and revision may end up empty. The accounts are in USD with a July–June financial year (FY26 = July 2025–June 2026). Langer Heinrich is 75% owned (CNNC 25%). The PLS figures (capex USD 1,226m, NPV USD 1,325m at USD 90/lb) are from the FEED update in August 2025; FEED is not complete, and the investor day 2/9-2026 gave no new figures that I could find. The contract book (volumes, floors and ceilings) was not found. The status of the class actions after mid-2025 is not confirmed. Insider trading has not been investigated (insiders own 0.4%). Q1 FY27 report expected 14/10-2026.
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