Rankings Commodities & uranium UPM
UPM
64
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−5
- ROIC−5
- Quality of growth−4
Strengths
- Earnings progress+1
- Buybacks+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 64, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 22.01 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 25.60 EUR
- Upside to median
- +16.3%
- Analysts
- 14
- Target range
- 17.60 – 29.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- −4%
- P/E (trailing)
- 16.9
- Forward P/E
- 14.2
- PEG
- 0.82
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 6 findings−22 of −30
- −5MarginOperating margin 8.4% (TTM) and 6.5% in 2025 vs 17.5% in 2022 and 13.8% in 2021. Gross margin only 12.2%.
- −5ROICROIC 4.4% (TTM) and 3.2% in 2025 vs 10–12% in 2021–2022. The return is below the cost of capital, and the company in practice does not earn its cost of capital.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from EUR 11.72bn (2022) to 9.52bn (TTM), -5.4% in the latest year, and analysts expect a further small decline in 2026.
- −3Future segmentThe biorefinery in Leuna, which is to carry the growth track in biochemicals, has been delayed several times due to quality problems, has caused a write-down of EUR 373m and is only expected to give positive EBIT in 2027; start-up costs weigh on H2 2026.
- −2Moat – structural declineGraphic paper is in structural decline. UPM is closing the paper mill in Ettringen (189 employees) and putting the business into a JV with Sappi, i.e. part of the portfolio is being wound down rather than strengthened.
- −3Capital allocationA fixed dividend of EUR 1.50 equals 126% of net income and 100% of FCF (EUR 791m TTM), while net debt has risen from EUR 1.09bn (2021) to 3.41bn.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 14.7 vs 12.1–16.7 in 2021–2025, EV/EBITDA 12.3 vs 8.5–15.1 and EV/EBIT 20.5 vs 11.3–26.8 – in the middle of the range, but on trough earnings and with an ROIC of 4%. Only P/B 1.24 is at the low end (1.23–1.61).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−12 of −35
- −4Bulk prices and production stopPrices of long-fibre pulp remain low. UPM closed the Kaukas pulp mill temporarily for six weeks from 3 August and plans a temporary stop at Pietarsaari in October to secure profitability.
- −3Weak short-term outlook and cash flowH2 guidance for comparable EBIT is EUR 375–575m (midpoint about the same as H1 despite higher prices), with EUR 40m more in maintenance costs. Operating cash flow in H1 was only EUR 225m. Inderes called the outlook disappointing.
- −3DebtNet debt EUR 3.3bn and net debt/EBITDA 2.36x (0.63x in 2021). Altman Z-score 2.27.
- −2Competition authoritiesThe graphic paper JV with Sappi is in the EU's phase II review with a decision at year-end. If it is rejected or divestment requirements are imposed, UPM is left with the declining paper business.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Earnings progressComparable EBIT rose 71% in Q2 2026 to EUR 212m (9.0% margin), and all businesses improved results year on year.
- +1BuybacksBuybacks of EUR 160m in 2025; together with the dividend of 792m (952m in total) it was below the year's FCF of 977m. The share count fell 0.8%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The forestry and paper industry has no industry of its own on the list; the closest is 'Commodities & uranium' (pulp is a commodity). The company is cyclical (pulp). The portfolio is changing: plywood is being spun off as WISA Group (trading from the start of November 2026), and graphic paper is being placed in a JV with Sappi (EU phase II, decision expected at year-end). The historical figures therefore include businesses that are disappearing. The energy business (hydropower and the stake in OL3) has not been assessed separately.
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