Rankings Commodities & uranium Spanish Mountain Gold
Spanish Mountain Gold
59
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Financing of mine construction−10
- Permits and First Nations−6
Strengths
- Validation from a large partner+3
- Insider ownership and buying+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 5
- Price
- 1.42 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 750m
- Cash runway
- 16 months
- Cash / debt
- 29.9 / 0.1m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +17%
Bull case
Gold holds above US$3,600, the feasibility study confirms the PEA, the environmental assessment progresses, and a mid-sized or large producer buys the company. Even 10–15% of NPV5 (US$2.16bn) equals an EV of US$215–325m, i.e. 2.5–3.5x the current value; Wheaton's involvement makes a takeover more likely.
Bear case
The gold price falls toward US$2,500–3,000, where a 0.41 g/t project with AISC of US$1,450 loses most of its value; the environmental assessment drags on, and capex of over US$1bn can only be financed with an issue far below the market price. The price could fall back to C$0.10–0.15 (−50–65%), as in 2024.
Catalysts
- 26 Nov 2026Q3 report (estimated date) – cash and burngradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026Completion of the 60,000 m drilling program for the feasibility study (31,587 m done) and a draft detailed project description for the environmental assessmentgradual bnnbloomberg.ca
- Q1 2027Formal submission of the detailed project description in the resumed BC/federal environmental assessmentgradual spanishmountaingold.com
- H1 2028Feasibility study and construction decision (company target)binary miningweekly.com
Risk of going to zerolow - 4.7 Moz M&I, cash for 16 months, Wheaton as partner and a large insider. The risk is prolonged stagnation and dilution, not bankruptcy.
Next financingCash of C$29.9m at 30/6-2026 vs approx. C$5.5m in quarterly spending (operations + capitalized drilling; 7.4m in the 2nd quarter under the 60,000 m program) gives approx. 16 months. The remaining US$32.5m from Wheaton depends on milestones and is not included. The feasibility study is fully funded; the big bill is construction (US$1.05bn) around the construction decision in H1 2028, which requires project financing, a stream and/or a very large issue – or a takeover.
Warrants & convertiblesNot quantified systematically. Ongoing exercise of warrants and options (insider 'exercise' transactions in 2026). No convertibles found. The Wheaton royalty is not dilutive but includes a penalty (up to +0.15% NSR or US$6m) if the capacity test is not met by 1/4-2030.
Insiders, last 12 monthsLembit Janes (largest insider, about 87.9m shares) bought 1,432,000 shares on 30/1-2026 and has exercised warrants/options several times in 2026. No material sales found (not systematically checked on SEDI).
Largest ownersLembit Janes about 17%; insiders combined about 27.5%; institutions about 3.4% (stockanalysis). Other major shareholders not investigated.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – approx. DKK 750m, but small vs the project's NPV. (2) Hot theme: yes – gold. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – environmental assessment and drilling are gradual; the binary construction decision is in 2028. (4) Major partner: yes – Wheaton Precious Metals (US$55m royalty). (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial – the study is funded, but only approx. 16 months of cash and an unfunded construction. (6) Price near the bottom: no – +91% in a year.
Why this asymmetryThe best of the four on project quality and validation: large M&I resource, Wheaton as partner, large insider and an EV under 5% of NPV. But the extreme discount is rational – capex is nine times the market cap, the grade is very low, and the upside depends on a high gold price and an acquisition that makes sense in 2027–28 at the earliest.
How the score is built
From 100 to 59, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.20 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +56%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−17 of −30
- −12MarginNo revenue; operating result −C$3.2m and net result −C$4.4m TTM (counted only here, not again under ROIC). Because exploration is capitalised, the real burn (FCF) was −C$16.8m TTM and −C$7.4m in Q2 2026 alone.
- −4Resource and studiesLarge and mostly secure resource (4.7 Moz measured & indicated, 0.4 Moz inferred), and the updated PEA (21/9-2026) shows NPV5 US$2.16bn and IRR 35%. But the grade is very low (0.41 g/t on average), AISC is US$1,450/oz over the life, and the economics rely on US$3,600/oz – the project is a leveraged gold price option.
- −1Capital allocationThe royalty sale to Wheaton funds the feasibility study without equity, but costs a 1.5% NSR in perpetuity and a penalty (up to +0.15% NSR or US$6m) if the mine does not reach capacity by 1/4/2030. Share-based compensation rose to C$0.51m in Q2 2026.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Valuation vs history and projectEV about C$132m (about US$95m) is under 5% of the PEA's NPV5 and about US$19 per oz M&I - very cheap on paper. P/B 1.41 is, however, the highest in 2021-26 (0.42-1.05), and the price is up 91% in a year. The discount reflects that construction costs nine times the market cap.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−20 of −35
- −10Financing of mine constructionInitial capex of US$1.05bn (C$1.42bn) – approx. nine times market cap. A company of this size cannot finance it on its own without massive dilution, so the value for current shareholders depends in practice on a takeover or a large partner.
- −6Permits and First NationsThe joint provincial/federal environmental assessment was paused and only resumed in August 2026; the detailed project description will be formally submitted in Q1 2027. Life-of-Mine agreements with Williams Lake and Xatśūll First Nation have not been signed. A construction decision in H1 2028 is ambitious for a full BC environmental assessment.
- −4DilutionThe share count has risen 16.9% over a year and 18.5% in 2025 (2–20% a year since 2021) via issues and exercise of warrants and options.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Validation from a large partnerWheaton Precious Metals buys a 1.5% NSR royalty for US$55m in three tranches tied to drilling and permits; US$22.5m has been received, and the feasibility study is fully funded.
- +2Insider ownership and buyingInsiders own approx. 27.5%; the largest insider Lembit Janes has approx. 87.9m shares (approx. 17%) and bought 1.43m shares on 30/1-2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). Gold developer (the Spanish Mountain project at Likely in British Columbia) with no revenue. Latest figures at 30/6-2026. Exploration is capitalised (capex C$14.9m TTM), so the operating loss understates the burn. Cash of C$29.9m is matched by a liability of about C$30m, which is presumably the Wheaton royalty advance (US$22.5m); this is not verified in the notes. The PEA figures (Sep. 2026) are based on US$3,600/oz gold; sensitivity at a lower gold price has not been investigated. Market cap: 529.5m shares × C$0.305 = about C$161m (about DKK 750m, below Nordnet's 847m). Warrants/options and the status of the Life-of-Mine agreements with Williams Lake and Xatśūll First Nation have not been calculated.
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