Rankings Commodities & uranium Uranium Royalty
Uranium Royalty
57
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs history and peers−11
- Capital allocation and strategy shift−6
- Going concern−5
Strengths
- Growth without capital+2
- Land holdings+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 57, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 3.25 USD
- Median analyst target
- 4.56 USD
- Upside to median
- +40.3%
- Analysts
- 5
- Target range
- 4.03 – 4.59 USD
- 52-week change
- −33%
- P/E (trailing)
- 8.6
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−16 of −30
- −4Quality of earningsQ1 revenue (USD 51.7m) was almost entirely sales of 593,255 lb from inventory at USD 86/lb; royalty income was only USD 0.68m. The net result of USD 16.3m includes a gain of 12.8m on warrants and 8.1m in currency gains, while the purchase cost 15.1m in expenses.
- −3ROICROIC 5.5% TTM vs a WACC of 9.35%. The peak of 28.8% in fiscal 2026 was due to the sale of the uranium inventory, and in 2021–25 ROIC ranged between −3.1% and 2.8%.
- −6Capital allocation and strategy shiftManagement sold the uranium inventory at about USD 86/lb and bought Sweetwater at an EV of about USD 1.9bn vs adjusted EBITDA of about USD 74m (about 26x) - a soda ash business instead of uranium. The share count is up about 160% (146.6m to 381m), and the 'only uranium-focused royalty company' is now predominantly a soda ash royalty with debt.
- −3Future segmentThe company itself writes that the soda ash industry faces macroeconomic headwinds. The royalty is 8% of the sales price, so lower soda ash prices hit earnings directly, even though the operators are low on the cost curve.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−11 of −35
- −11Multiples vs history and peersEV USD 2.14bn vs current EBITDA of about USD 70-75m (Sweetwater plus small uranium royalties) gives about 29x. Natural Resource Partners, which also owns soda ash and commodity royalties, trades at EV/EBITDA 9.6. P/B 1.66 is in the middle of its own history (1.12-2.48 in 2022-26), and the price target (USD 4.20) corresponds to about 1.0x NAV, so there is no discount.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−16 of −35
- −5Going concernAccording to the minutes, the 10-Q for Q1 contains a going concern note: the bridge of USD 40m matures 31/1-2027, and management's plans do not remove substantial doubt about continued operations within a year.
- −5DebtTotal debt USD 615m and net debt USD 550m as of 31/7/2026 vs net cash of USD 254m three months earlier. That corresponds to about 7–8x current EBITDA; working capital is negative (−17m), and the current ratio is 0.88.
- −4Control and share overhangOrion (approx. 43%) and Ontario Teachers' (approx. 16%) together own approx. 59% after the merger, and UEC approx. 8%. The existing URC shareholders are down to approx. 41%, and a later sale by the sellers could pressure the price.
- −2Operator concentrationSoda ash revenue comes from five mines run by four operators (WE Soda, Tata Chemicals, Şişecam, Solvay) in one basin, and the key uranium royalties depend on Cameco's McArthur River and Cigar Lake.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Growth without capitalAccording to the company, the operators' expansions can lift the attributable soda ash capacity by over 60% without additional capital from URC.
- +1Land holdingsOver 5.3m acres of surface and mineral rights make the company Wyoming's largest landowner; approx. 38,000 acres are leased for oil and gas exploration.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The company was transformed in July 2026: URC merged with Sweetwater Royalties (soda ash/trona royalties and 5.3m acres of land in Wyoming) under a new US parent, paid with about USD 813m in new shares at USD 3.64, about USD 330m in cash and assumption of Sweetwater's debt (USD 625m as of 1/4/2026). The share count rose from 146.6m to about 381m. Almost the entire physical uranium inventory was sold (inventory USD 136m in January vs 0.2m as of 31/7) to finance the purchase, so the exposure today is predominantly soda ash plus the old uranium royalties (McArthur River, Cigar Lake etc.). Industry is nevertheless set to 'Commodities & uranium' on the user's instruction; soda ash really fits better under chemicals/commodities. The TSX listing ceased 28/7/2026, so trading takes place on Nasdaq (UROY) in USD. The TTM figures (revenue USD 214m, P/E 11) are dominated by one-off uranium sales and say nothing about future earnings. P/NAV has not been published; I have used the trading values (EV about USD 1.9bn for Sweetwater), analysts' price target (USD 4.20 ≈ the price) and P/B as an approximation, so P/NAV is about 1.0x. The debt's interest rate and maturity as well as Sweetwater's revenue have not been found. The going concern disclosure and the revenue breakdown come from a secondary source (sci-tech-today), not directly from the 10-Q. Insider trades have not been examined.
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